$11 NL THE MTT: TT on SM sattie bubble as middle stack

[Andyreas]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

11

Currency

$

Hi forum,

I wonder if I played this hand wrongly.

We're 6 left and 5 get the ticket to SM.

I'll post and then put my thoughts in the spoiler, so you can analyse without any influence by me.

pokerstars, $9.80 + $1.20 - Hold'em No Limit - 800/1,600 (200 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 21,329 (13 bb)
MP: 40,424 (25 bb)
CO (Hero): 28,016 (18 bb)
BU: 45,412 (28 bb)
SB: 22,314 (14 bb)
BB: 28,505 (18 bb)

Pre-Flop: (3,600) Hero is CO with T♠ T♥
2 players fold, Hero raises to 3,200, 2 players fold, BB calls 1,600

Flop: (8,400) J♠ 6♠ 7♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 3,200, BB calls 3,200

Turn: (14,800) 8♣ (2 players)
BB bets 5,476, Hero raises to 21,416 (all-in), BB calls 15,940

River: (57,632) 3♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 57,632

Showdown:
CO (Hero) shows T♠ T♥ (a pair of Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 81%, Flop: 77%, Turn: 68%, River: 0%)

BB shows 6♣ 3♣ (two pair, Sixes and Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 19%, Flop: 23%, Turn: 32%, River: 100%)

BB wins 57,632

Spoiler: Thinking

I didn't want to jam because there were two smaller stacks than me and I'd be ****ed if someone called with JJ+.

On flop there's an overcard but I have to bet also for protection.

On turn he donk bets 1/3 of pot. I'm blocking the T9 straight with my tens.

While he could also have two pair, I somehow sense he is challenging my c-bet, so I decide to jam, even if he could have a Jack, two pair or a straight.

Since he thinks and uses time bank, I doubt I am beat and like what he calls with.

Not the outcome though. 🤣

I just wonder if I should have jammed pre-flop, bet bigger on flop or fold to the donk bet on turn?

 

[amatola]

I would have jammed pre if I was going to play TT. That said if there are maniacs around that are shorter than me I might rather just let them take each other out

with jamming TT though, IF CALLED at best its a flip vs AK/AQ and maybe AJ - are smaller pocket pairs calling? maybe 99/88 - sure smaller if 5bbs or less

- that said i am a super nit that needs to stop being a super nit!

 

[fundiver199]

When stacks are similar on the bubble of a satellite or DoN, the gab between jamming and calling ranges become enormous. If you open jam here, the players behind can only call you with AA or maybe as the widest with QQ+. And for that reason this is the play, you should make. The issue with opening small is, that now they can rejam on you, and then you can only call with AA and maybe KK. So if you play like this, and the opponents are not complete ICM ignorants, like apparently this BB was, you only get to play KK+ and then a few more hands, that fold to a rejam. Whereas if you open jam, you get to do that with any two cards or any two but junk.

 

[eetenor]

Hi forum,

I wonder if I played this hand wrongly.

We're 6 left and 5 get the ticket to SM.

I'll post and then put my thoughts in the spoiler, so you can analyse without any influence by me.

PokerStars, $9.80 + $1.20 - Hold'em No Limit - 800/1,600 (200 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 21,329 (13 bb)
MP: 40,424 (25 bb)
CO (Hero): 28,016 (18 bb)
BU: 45,412 (28 bb)
SB: 22,314 (14 bb)
BB: 28,505 (18 bb)

Pre-Flop: (3,600) Hero is CO with T♠ T♥
2 players fold, Hero raises to 3,200, 2 players fold, BB calls 1,600

Flop: (8,400) J♠ 6♠ 7♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 3,200, BB calls 3,200

Turn: (14,800) 8♣ (2 players)
BB bets 5,476, Hero raises to 21,416 (all-in), BB calls 15,940

River: (57,632) 3♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 57,632

Showdown:
CO (Hero) shows T♠ T♥ (a pair of Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 81%, Flop: 77%, Turn: 68%, River: 0%)

BB shows 6♣ 3♣ (two pair, Sixes and Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 19%, Flop: 23%, Turn: 32%, River: 100%)

BB wins 57,632

Spoiler: Thinking

I didn't want to jam because there were two smaller stacks than me and I'd be ****ed if someone called with JJ+.

On flop there's an overcard but I have to bet also for protection.

On turn he donk bets 1/3 of pot. I'm blocking the T9 straight with my tens.

While he could also have two pair, I somehow sense he is challenging my c-bet, so I decide to jam, even if he could have a Jack, two pair or a straight.

Since he thinks and uses time bank, I doubt I am beat and like what he calls with.

Not the outcome though. 🤣

I just wonder if I should have jammed pre-flop, bet bigger on flop or fold to the donk bet on turn?

Ok this is a satty and satty strategy changes considerably on the bubble- The first thought we want to have in this spot is we do not want to play post flop- however we do not want to go broke by shoving either- We shove if we know our V know to fold- if they do not then we open 3.5x not 2

If we did open 2 and got called we have two choices only on flop bet big to get folds or check to showdown there is no small betting in this spot. Again we did not want to play post flop- we never want to see a turn after we bet flop-we are not trying to build a stack we are trying to win a seat.

I decide to jam, even if he could have a Jack, two pair or a straight.======this is not satty thinking we do not need all the chips just 1 chip to win a seat

Fold is far better than jam vs this player type (we do not want to risk our stack vs a V that does not know satty strat- Why? this very result this V should be folding turn but they do not know what they are doing so we just put our seat at risk-

A point to remember on the bubble with weak players who do not know satty play- We can just let them break someone else or themselves-we do not need to be in pots with them. We can fold TT preflop if players are this bad

 

[ADRI7HO]

Hi forum,

I wonder if I played this hand wrongly.

We're 6 left and 5 get the ticket to SM.

I'll post and then put my thoughts in the spoiler, so you can analyse without any influence by me.

PokerStars, $9.80 + $1.20 - Hold'em No Limit - 800/1,600 (200 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 21,329 (13 bb)
MP: 40,424 (25 bb)
CO (Hero): 28,016 (18 bb)
BU: 45,412 (28 bb)
SB: 22,314 (14 bb)
BB: 28,505 (18 bb)

Pre-Flop: (3,600) Hero is CO with T♠ T♥
2 players fold, Hero raises to 3,200, 2 players fold, BB calls 1,600

Flop: (8,400) J♠ 6♠ 7♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 3,200, BB calls 3,200

Turn: (14,800) 8♣ (2 players)
BB bets 5,476, Hero raises to 21,416 (all-in), BB calls 15,940

River: (57,632) 3♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 57,632

Showdown:
CO (Hero) shows T♠ T♥ (a pair of Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 81%, Flop: 77%, Turn: 68%, River: 0%)

BB shows 6♣ 3♣ (two pair, Sixes and Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 19%, Flop: 23%, Turn: 32%, River: 100%)

BB wins 57,632

Spoiler: Thinking

I didn't want to jam because there were two smaller stacks than me and I'd be ****ed if someone called with JJ+.

On flop there's an overcard but I have to bet also for protection.

On turn he donk bets 1/3 of pot. I'm blocking the T9 straight with my tens.

While he could also have two pair, I somehow sense he is challenging my c-bet, so I decide to jam, even if he could have a Jack, two pair or a straight.

Since he thinks and uses time bank, I doubt I am beat and like what he calls with.

Not the outcome though. 🤣

I just wonder if I should have jammed pre-flop, bet bigger on flop or fold to the donk bet on turn?

This BB 6.3s call was not an expert play, even if you only had to call a BB 2x raise.
I probably would have raised between 2.5 - 3.5 BB preflop, if I had information about the opponent that he was "playing interestingly", I would have raised even 4.5 BB.
But I know it's easy to say that in hindsight.
Anyway, it's possible that he would have easily called the 4.5 BB raise and fell in love with his pair of 6s on the flop and that would have been the end of it.
My condolences, maybe things will turn out better next time.

 

[SpanRmonka]

Have to agree with what various others have said. I think the key bit of advice is, don't play TT in this spot. Don't C bet 2nd pair either. The chances someone else gets into a spot like you did, and loses over the next few orbits is fairly high, and for this reason there's no need to play. If you find a hand you HAVE to play for me you can only shove.

Lets say worst case, you play no hands for 3 orbits and always have your blinds taken. Maybe you're down to 8 bb short stack. You still have the option of doubling when you get a decent hand to shove with. Maybe someone else is also short with you. One thing I find on satty bubble is players will also give you a walk way more frequently too, especially when extra short as they worry you will be more likely to call.

I think from this spot, and I'm guessing here, if you played 0 more hands you have 80%+ chance of cashing for the ticket. Someone else is likely to mess up or get coolered at some stage. Thoughts??

 

[fundiver199]

I think the key bit of advice is, don't play TT in this spot.

The key bit of advice is to open jam. The times, we dont need to play on a satellite bubble, is when someone is running on fumes, or if we are a runaway chip leader. Neither of that was the case here. Hero only had an average stack, and nobody were significantly shorter than Hero. So if Hero just sit and wait for someone else to punt or get coolered, he will blind away and fail to cash far more often, than if he play sound and correct push-fold poker. And it does not even really matter, how good or bad the other players are. Nobody are calling off their stack with 63s preflop on a satellite bubble. The problem here was, Hero allowed BB to see a flop and improve to something, which ultimately became to strong for him to fold.

 

[eetenor]

The key bit of advice is to open jam. The times, we dont need to play on a satellite bubble, is when someone is running on fumes, or if we are a runaway chip leader. Neither of that was the case here. Hero only had an average stack, and nobody were significantly shorter than Hero. So if Hero just sit and wait for someone else to punt or get coolered, he will blind away and fail to cash far more often, than if he play sound and correct push-fold poker. And it does not even really matter, how good or bad the other players are. Nobody are calling off their stack with 63s preflop on a satellite bubble. The problem here was, Hero allowed BB to see a flop and improve to something, which ultimately became to strong for him to fold.

Shoving is the standard action with TT but it requires our V to know to fold hands that weak V do not fold- An effective exploit vs weaker players who would call with KQ suited AQoff etc for any size and put us at risk and then get to see all 5 cards is to make a large raise 3.5 or 4x pre then a shove on flop when broadway cards miss it is a very effective way to protect your seat equity vs players who do not play correctly in this spot-
Vs competent players who would attack that bet it is best not to use this exploit

Table dynamics can make the TT a fold as well- it too is exploit but this player was soo weak that we can anticipate winning without playing another hand based on the current stack sizes-Of course we would adapt our play based on stack size going forward

 

[fundiver199]

but this player was soo weak that we can anticipate winning without playing another hand based on the current stack sizes

Yes this player was very bad, but there was no information given about that in the writeup. And its definitely not standard to see someone this bad make it to the bubble in an 11$ satellite on PokerStars. So wanting to do anything other than open jam here is based on information, we did not have before seeing the showdown, and which Andyreas most likely did not have either, when he played the hand.

 

[makisaa]

It was a good play from you, and good choice. The opponent had 63(!) and unfortunately he got two pairs on the river! Even if you went all in I think he would call it, because he played a 63.

 

[eetenor]

Yes this player was very bad, but there was no information given about that in the writeup. And its definitely not standard to see someone this bad make it to the bubble in an 11$ satellite on PokerStars. So wanting to do anything other than open jam here is based on information, we did not have before seeing the showdown, and which Andyreas most likely did not have either, when he played the hand.

There seems to be a disconnect between my statements and your responses- I state TT is a standard shove you reply --not standard to see someone this bad make it to the bubble - I did not say the standard play was anything but shove therefore if your satty players play well then only ever shove
I said the exploit play based on table dynamics was to deviate from standard. table dynamics - refers to recognizing players who play poorly as we play with them or if they have very loose hud stats and thus we can deviate based on that data- when a player plays this spot soo poorly- there is often a lot of previous data suggesting we can deviate--- if we are taking the time to note it- If there are two players left who both have similar tendencies or one is a calling station the other is too aggro then we can deviate from standard and just fold TT because our equity estimate for a seat goes up to 90% plus and TT seldom has 90% vs range when we shove and get called- our V who are weak call too often with hands we flip versus AQ KQs etc and fold the hands we dominate like small pairs so we are punting 30% of our equity at times-this is of course an estimate- again standard is shove but that is not the default play with table dynamics- recognizing table dynamics is where we can get a very large edge over raw equity strategies-


When we want to study these spots we reverse engineer the hands-then check our player pool data to see if it supports the reverse engineering frequently enough to deviate-

I recently saw a twitter post regarding a satty spot that was a fold preflop- Dara O'kearney stated it was a fold Issac Haxston disagreed then ran it - I will try to find that thread and add it to this thread

 

[eetenor]

There seems to be a disconnect between my statements and your responses- I state TT is a standard shove you reply --not standard to see someone this bad make it to the bubble - I did not say the standard play was anything but shove therefore if your satty players play well then only ever shove
I said the exploit play based on table dynamics was to deviate from standard. table dynamics - refers to recognizing players who play poorly as we play with them or if they have very loose hud stats and thus we can deviate based on that data- when a player plays this spot soo poorly- there is often a lot of previous data suggesting we can deviate--- if we are taking the time to note it- If there are two players left who both have similar tendencies or one is a calling station the other is too aggro then we can deviate from standard and just fold TT because our equity estimate for a seat goes up to 90% plus and TT seldom has 90% vs range when we shove and get called- our V who are weak call too often with hands we flip versus AQ KQs etc and fold the hands we dominate like small pairs so we are punting 30% of our equity at times-this is of course an estimate- again standard is shove but that is not the default play with table dynamics- recognizing table dynamics is where we can get a very large edge over raw equity strategies-


When we want to study these spots we reverse engineer the hands-then check our player pool data to see if it supports the reverse engineering frequently enough to deviate-

I recently saw a twitter post regarding a satty spot that was a fold preflop- Dara O'kearney stated it was a fold Issac Haxston disagreed then ran it - I will try to find that thread and add it to this thread

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1640083868446339072

Isaac Haxton ran a sim and the player has 92% seat equity vs solid players- Even though three players are close in chips similar to the above table dynamics

 

[amatola]

on that AA hand - would you be folding if you lost and were left with 28, 40 50k chips? At what point is it a call?

 

[fundiver199]

I ran the spot in ICMizer now, and as expected Hero can profitably open jam any two cards at equilibrium. Even 72o is profitably winning Hero 0,04% of the price pool, which is not all that different from TT, which win Hero 0,09%. The reason, why Heros cards dont matter much, is that the players behind can only call with QQ+ (BTN), JJ+ (SB) and KK+ (BB). So all in all Hero should only get action 4,1% of the time.

However as others have said, there might be people behind, who dont understand, how tight they are supposed to call off on a satellite bubble. So lets lock up the ranges and assume, that BTN and SB both call with JJ+, AK and that BB call with 88+, AJ+, KQ. Now Hero will get action 14% of the time, and for that reason Hero can only jam KK+, AKs.

So it is a fair point, that if someone behind is bad enough to not fold KQ facing an 18BB open jam on the bubble of a satellite, then we do need to adjust to that, and the adjustment can be to min-raise a much tighter range, which still includes TT. However then we need to play for some pot control postflop. As played the flop is a check back and the turn just a call. The opponent would then most likely have jammed the river, and at this point we can fold TT and still be in the tournament.

 

[Atom Winner]

Yes poker can be pretty unfair sometimes 🙄