$11 NL HE MTT: Sunday Million satellite

[mariussica88]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

11

Currency

$

The stats are not very accurate since they just been moved to my table. This tournament is the daily $11 PKO Sunday Million sat which has 16 tickets added to the prize pool, at this point in the tournament we are with around 120 players left. Is calling a good option for me here? The CO has a bounty of $13.56 on him.

BB stats after 12 hands: VPIP 58 PFR 17 Limp 20 Post Flop AGG 4 C-bet 100 Turn C-bet 100 Donk bet 60
CO stats after 8 hands: VPIP 63 PFR 38 Limp 0 Post Flop AGG 1.50



pokerstars, $9.80 + $1.20 - Hold'em No Limit - 2,000/4,000 (400 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 113,830 (28 bb)
UTG+1 (Hero): 87,794 (22 bb)
MP: 46,122 (12 bb)
MP+1: 146,927 (37 bb)
CO: 105,874 (26 bb)
BU: 28,212 (7 bb)
SB: 157,826 (39 bb)
BB: 292,782 (73 bb)

Pre-Flop: (9,200) Hero is UTG+1 with J♥ A♦
1 fold, Hero raises to 8,400, 1 fold, MP+1 calls 8,400, CO calls 8,400, 2 players fold, BB 3-bets to 292,382 (all-in), UTG+1 (Hero) folds, 1 fold, CO calls 97,074 (all-in)

 

[fundiver199]

In a non PKO against an unknown or average player this would be an easy fold. Here however BB does have an extra incentive to jam light, because he cover everyone and can win the bounties, and he is not even risking a significant portion of his stack. You cant win any bounties now, which obviously makes calling less attractive. But even so there is an incentive to gamble and become a big stack in a PKO. The payjumps are only half, what they are in a normal MTT, and its a long way to those 16 players, where the tickets are awarded. Finally BB has been very loose over those 12 hands, you have on him. Even in a normal MTT I rarely lay down AJ preflop to someone playing 58% of hands. So personally I would have called here.

 

[300HPGOD]

I think generally speaking this is a fold. The only thing that would make me think about doing this would be that it is a satellite (not sure if there is a prize pool plus the tix or just the tix as the prize pool which would make a difference) and if I want a ticket I have to be in the top 16 and the only way to do that (my guess based on your stack vs the rest of the table as a gauge ) is to make a call like this eventually. The problem is I dont ever think BB is that light here meaning I rarely think they risk over 1/3rd of their stack here with A8 or something like that. If this is light its most likely a 55 or 66 type hand which is still ahead of you. Anytime we have a call decision to make and are hoping/fist pumping to see a hand that we are still behind is a pretty good indicator that it should be a fold. I dont think this would be the worse call in the world to gamble in a satty for a ticket, big stack for the PKO, etc. but I think in the long run it would be -EV and therefore should not be made. Since there was a caller behind you at least got to see what BB was going with here and then that should be noted so that future spots like these you will have a better idea of what will be jammed.

 

[fundiver199]

The problem is I dont ever think BB is that light here meaning I rarely think they risk over 1/3rd of their stack here with A8 or something like that.

I think, we are looking at that kind of hand a ton of the time. BB is a maniac player, and they are the table chip leader, so they are likely playing the rush and excited to gamble it up and try to win some more bounties. Yes they could just call, but then they are out of position against 3 opponents, so I think, anything remotely decent get jammed here. The good old A8, which you already mentioned, but also KJ, 44, and so on and so forth.

 

[mariussica88]

(not sure if there is a prize pool plus the tix or just the tix as the prize pool which would make a difference)

So this is the tournament, it is 1 a day for each day of the week until Sunday. The tickets are added to the prize pool buy Pokerstars. Basically is a $11 PKO tournament with 16 add tickets.






And also this is the full history hand:

PokerStars, $9.80 + $1.20 - Hold'em No Limit - 2,000/4,000 (400 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 113,830 (28 bb)
UTG+1 (Hero): 87,794 (22 bb)
MP: 46,122 (12 bb)
MP+1: 146,927 (37 bb)
CO: 105,874 (26 bb)
BU: 28,212 (7 bb)
SB: 157,826 (39 bb)
BB: 292,782 (73 bb)

Pre-Flop: (9,200) Hero is UTG+1 with J♥ A♦
1 fold, Hero raises to 8,400, 1 fold, MP+1 calls 8,400, CO calls 8,400, 2 players fold, BB 3-bets to 292,382 (all-in), UTG+1 (Hero) folds, 1 fold, CO calls 97,074 (all-in)

Flop: (232,948) 4♦ A♥ J♠ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (232,948) 8♥ (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (232,948) Q♥ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 232,948

Showdown:
BB shows 9♥ 9♦ (a pair of Nines)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 82%, Flop: 92%, Turn: 95%, River: 100%)

CO shows 7♦ 7♣ (a pair of Sevens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 18%, Flop: 8%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

BB wins 232,948

 

[fundiver199]

In fairness BB showing up with 99, and the runout being good for AJ, does not show, that his range is wide enough to justify a call. So we are still left guessing about that