$11 NL HE MTT: Pocket aces against a whale

[fundiver199]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

11

Game Options

1. Deep Stacked
2. Bounty

Currency

$

Hand is from 11$ "deep stacked" PKO on pokerstars. Starting chips 10.000, opponent cover me, I have starting bounty of 2,45$. Opponent is a whale playing VPIP 44 / PFR 4 over 191 hands. What is your river line with a 2/3 pot bet left?

PokerStars, $9.80 + $1.20 - Hold'em No Limit - 100/200 (25 ante) - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 30,959 (155 bb)
UTG+1: 12,515 (63 bb)
MP: 9,950 (50 bb)
MP+1: 35,852 (179 bb)
CO: 18,296 (91 bb)
BU: 12,608 (63 bb)
SB (Hero): 10,795 (54 bb)
BB: 21,221 (106 bb)

Pre-Flop: (500) Hero is SB with A♦ A♣
5 players fold, BTN calls 200, Hero raises to 1,000, 1 fold, BTN calls 800

Flop: (2,400) 3♦ 9♥ Q♥ (2 players)
Hero bets 1,440, BTN calls 1,440

Turn: (5,280) 5♣ (2 players)
Hero bets 2,112, BTN calls 2,112

River: (9,504) 4♠ (2 players)
Hero?

 

[VikK030p13]

I think - all in

 

[Reail]

Hello. There are few hands in his range that beat us, I can think of in his range - 56, 67. The rest is a missed flush draw, straight draw, some kind of AQ. I'd probably check-call here.

 

[frost234]

All-in

 

[IADaveMark]

His pre-flop stats scream Calling Station. The way the hand played out seems to lean in that direction post-flop. (I would have already opened my PT4 HUD here to see if I have any post-flop stats on him.)

With someone like that, he could be calling you down with Qx or even worse. As mentioned above, he might be on a draw. That said, someone like this may not even think to raise QQ, 99, or 33 pre... even in position. That's what so confusing about Calling Station players.

With your SPR under 1.0 at this point, if you are going to bet at all, it's a jam. However, you still will have 30+bb left if you check it down. But if you check and he bets, what's the play? Not likely given his apparent (unconfirmed) profile. However, that does give you a little pot control. If he jams after you check, you can make the decision. If he jams after you raise, that's more chips you are out if you fold to it.

I would just check call as said above.

 

[eetenor]

Hand is from 11$ "deep stacked" PKO on PokerStars. Starting chips 10.000, opponent cover me, I have starting bounty of 2,45$. Opponent is a whale playing VPIP 44 / PFR 4 over 191 hands. What is your river line with a 2/3 pot bet left?

PokerStars, $9.80 + $1.20 - Hold'em No Limit - 100/200 (25 ante) - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 30,959 (155 bb)
UTG+1: 12,515 (63 bb)
MP: 9,950 (50 bb)
MP+1: 35,852 (179 bb)
CO: 18,296 (91 bb)
BU: 12,608 (63 bb)
SB (Hero): 10,795 (54 bb)
BB: 21,221 (106 bb)

Pre-Flop: (500) Hero is SB with A♦ A♣
5 players fold, BTN calls 200, Hero raises to 1,000, 1 fold, BTN calls 800

Flop: (2,400) 3♦ 9♥ Q♥ (2 players)
Hero bets 1,440, BTN calls 1,440

Turn: (5,280) 5♣ (2 players)
Hero bets 2,112, BTN calls 2,112

River: (9,504) 4♠ (2 players)
Hero?

Vs a whale I bet larger on the turn 80% to 1.2 pot as they are not folding any draws nor any Q or even 66 as you def-have AK right right? Then the river is an easy shove and call from made hands vs your AK-yes I know you had AA but whales put us on hands they beat

 

[rastapapolos]

The only hand that beats you is Q9. He has a lot of draw on this board, 2 heart, TJ and some medium pocket pairs. I don't think he calls with 76 on the flop unless he's a maniac. Anyway pushing all-in in this spot is the correct play, you have a lot of bluffs in your range that will make him call.

 

[fundiver199]

Thanks for the comments. I jammed, and the opponent called with 76 of hearts. So he flopped a flushdraw and ended up making a runner-runner straight. Had to look at the hand in a replayer to find out WTF just happened. I think, my sizing was somewhat awkward with a large flop bet and a smaller turn bet. But regardless of my sizing the outcome would most certainly have been the same, since whales tend to see their draws to the end

 

[eetenor]

Thanks for the comments. I jammed, and the opponent called with 76 of hearts. So he flopped a flushdraw and ended up making a runner-runner straight. Had to look at the hand in a replayer to find out WTF just happened. I think, my sizing was somewhat awkward with a large flop bet and a smaller turn bet. But regardless of my sizing the outcome would most certainly have been the same, since whales tend to see their draws to the end

Interesting spot where this whale does not raise often- so does not bluff- so does not thin value raise- so after we bet turn small- can we 20% bet river and fold to the shove- we are not at top of our value range on river might we consider a much more exploitative river action? Vs this player type specifically- it is almost 100% that a river raise is 2 pair+- It is not just 76 that gets there A2 does as well and 55 33 53hh-vs this player type we cannot rule out the sets-

Ohh I looked more closely at your SPR on the turn I like a shove there vs this players suspected range expecting to be called most freq -if I decided to play for stacks it would be on turn.