$11 Friday Buyin: Trip 9s on river, straight possibilities out there

[hott_estelle]

pokerstars Game #9404359074: Tournament #45916850, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2007/04/13 - 17:42:25 (ET)
Table '45916850 4' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: joosebucklol (1765 in chips)
Seat 2: beardyian (3800 in chips)
Seat 3: Stefanicov (2460 in chips)
Seat 5: mischman (1818 in chips)
Seat 6: ronaldadio (1000 in chips)
Seat 8: hott_estelle (2566 in chips)
Seat 9: JD Old Num 7 (1226 in chips)
ronaldadio: posts small blind 25
hott_estelle: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hott_estelle [9h 9d]
JD Old Num 7: calls 50
joosebucklol: folds
beardyian: folds
Stefanicov: folds
mischman: folds
ronaldadio: folds
hott_estelle: raises 150 to 200
JD Old Num 7: calls 150
*** FLOP *** [7s Ad 6c]
hott_estelle: checks
JD Old Num 7: checks
*** TURN *** [7s Ad 6c] [8c]
hott_estelle: bets 200
JD Old Num 7: calls 200
*** RIVER *** [7s Ad 6c 8c] [9s]
hott_estelle: checks
JD Old Num 7: bets 826 and is all-in
joosebucklol said, "i know the spark inside your eyes was just the match i used to set myself on fire"
hott_estelle said, "999"
mischman said, "callcallcall"
hott_estelle said, "lol"
mischman said, "raise"
mischman said, "raise"
hott_estelle said, "JD show or tell?"
mischman said, "raise!"
JD Old Num 7 said, "pic?"
JD Old Num 7 said, "lol"
mischman said, "HELL YEA!"
joosebucklol said, "show regardless"
mischman said, "GO JD!"
hott_estelle: ???

Can we put him on A10 or A5 here?? Or does he just have a 2 pair?? Easy call, or fold??

 

[hott_estelle]

Anyone??

 

[dj11]

Well, what happened?

Neither call or fold here is easy. You sort of blew a chance to at least keep JD under control here when u checked the turn. Trips deserves something here, if only some off the wall probing bet. Remember he might be putting you on 9T suited. He cant break you here, but he can dent you.

So, what happened?

 

[Bombjack]

So, what happened?

This is irrelevant really.

Anyway Estelle, JD could well be on a steal here. (Or actually probably not because you're posting it, unless you folded... ) Because you checked the river he's fairly sure you don't have the straight. He could do this with plently of hands like an Ace if he thinks you have a smaller pair, or maybe a set.

In the end I'd probably just reason that I only need to be ahead less than a quarter of the time to profitably call, and I've got chips left if I call and lose, so I'd end up calling.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

^ What he said.

Really we're only afraid of AT here. I don't think JD is horrible enough to limp-call UTG with A5 or something like KTc (which I mention only because they're hands that beat us and that fit the postflop betting pattern somewhat). Although if JD does have AT he's playing it pretty strangely. Compared with all the hands he could possibly be shoving 'for value' (two-pair hands, even AJ etc), and all the hands he could just be making a move with, I think this is actually a pretty easy call (though I have to admit I didn't think it was a clear call on first impressions).

Again, this hand is an example of a player's play not making a lot of sense because it doesn't correlate with the hand he is trying to represent. This doesn't mean he's always bluffing, maybe he is just making a goofy move, but it makes it far more likely that he is bluffing, or has a made hand worse than yours. Almost nothing with a T or a 5 in it plays the hand the way JD has done here. Call.

 

[joosebuck]

JTc could possibly, but i stand with what i said at the table that we call here

 

[ChuckTs]

Seems to me like a bluff; you've checked and shown weakness on the river and he could be just trying to push you off a hand.

His overbet pretty much screams 'don't call me, i have a big hand!', but then again JD could be using 2nd level thinking and know that you'll be thinking along these lines. I dunno...we're all pretty simple players and I don't see it going that deep into the thought process, so I call here. As was mentioned, we'll still have plenty of chips to come back with, so we won't be dead in the water should we lose.

 

[Jack Daniels]

Really we're only afraid of AT here.

And rightly so.

I don't think JD is horrible enough to limp-call UTG with A5 or something like KTc

I'm going to take this as sort of a compliment. LOL

Although if JD does have AT he's playing it pretty strangely.

Yeah, I'd agree. Actually AT is a hand that I will play from EP if I'm first in. At this early stage, the table was still loose and we were seeing several limpers in unraised pots. I didn't particularly want to play AT from UTG against several players, so I was going to raise. The majority of the table at this point had shown a propensity for folding to an EP 5xBB raise while still yielding one caller more often that not. I also figured I'd get a little credit for an opening raise since my stack at the time was 2nd smallest at the table. So after all that, I typed in my amount and brain farted...LOL...I clicked call. Ooops.

Then, oddly enough, the table folded around to Estelle anyway, who raised to 4xBB. Well, she had been playing aggressively anyway (thx PAH) and could have seen my UTG limp as just a mediocre hand limping in wanting to see the flop. I admit I really didn't give her credit for a huge hand based on her PF aggression and coming out of the BB combined. Seemed more like a raise for someone that would be OOP the rest of the hand. So I flat called to see the flop (which was my initial goal anyway, though achieved in a weird way).

Need I go on to explain my rationale on later streets? I will if anyone actually wants to hear it, but will do that later...off to bed soon. But anyway, that's how it got to the flop.


And in case there isn't a later...

His overbet pretty much screams 'don't call me, i have a big hand!', but then again JD could be using 2nd level thinking and know that you'll be thinking along these lines.

^^^ You would be correct here,

even if you don't believe it here. VVV

I don't see it going that deep into the thought process,

 

[hott_estelle]

PokerStars Game #9404359074: Tournament #45916850, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2007/04/13 - 17:42:25 (ET)
Table '45916850 4' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: joosebucklol (1765 in chips)
Seat 2: beardyian (3800 in chips)
Seat 3: Stefanicov (2460 in chips)
Seat 5: mischman (1818 in chips)
Seat 6: ronaldadio (1000 in chips)
Seat 8: hott_estelle (2566 in chips)
Seat 9: JD Old Num 7 (1226 in chips)
ronaldadio: posts small blind 25
hott_estelle: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hott_estelle [9h 9d]
JD Old Num 7: calls 50
joosebucklol: folds
beardyian: folds
Stefanicov: folds
mischman: folds
ronaldadio: folds
hott_estelle: raises 150 to 200
JD Old Num 7: calls 150
*** FLOP *** [7s Ad 6c]
hott_estelle: checks
JD Old Num 7: checks
*** TURN *** [7s Ad 6c] [8c]
hott_estelle: bets 200
JD Old Num 7: calls 200
*** RIVER *** [7s Ad 6c 8c] [9s]
hott_estelle: checks
JD Old Num 7: bets 826 and is all-in
joosebucklol said, "i know the spark inside your eyes was just the match i used to set myself on fire"
hott_estelle said, "999"
mischman said, "callcallcall"
hott_estelle said, "lol"
mischman said, "raise"
mischman said, "raise"
hott_estelle said, "JD show or tell?"
mischman said, "raise!"
JD Old Num 7 said, "pic?"
JD Old Num 7 said, "lol"
mischman said, "HELL YEA!"
joosebucklol said, "show regardless"
mischman said, "GO JD!"
hott_estelle: folds
JD Old Num 7 collected 825 from pot
JD Old Num 7: doesn't show hand
hott_estelle said, "ouch"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 825 | Rake 0
Board [7s Ad 6c 8c 9s]
Seat 1: joosebucklol folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: beardyian folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Stefanicov folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: mischman (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: ronaldadio (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: hott_estelle (big blind) folded on the River
Seat 9: JD Old Num 7 collected (825)

I didn't particularly want to play AT from UTG against several players, so I was going to raise. The majority of the table at this point had shown a propensity for folding to an EP 5xBB raise while still yielding one caller more often that not. I also figured I'd get a little credit for an opening raise since my stack at the time was 2nd smallest at the table. So after all that, I typed in my amount and brain farted...LOL...I clicked call. Ooops.

Yes!! I was right, well my read was right.


Yes I did fold. I thought that he had at least an Ace when he called my bet on the turn, possibly A10 at that point. But after my check on the river, and he pushed all in, I did think along the same lines as Chuck kinda did think (even though he didn't think it was possible) and I thought the big overbet was done in order to make it seem like a bluff on the river, but to me it was definitely screaming "don't call!!".

His overbet pretty much screams 'don't call me, i have a big hand!', but then again JD could be using 2nd level thinking and know that you'll be thinking along these lines.

Anyways, it might have been a weak fold, but I really thought he had A10 there and I play by feel more so than anything else, so I went with my feeling and folded. He could have easily been bluffing, but this time, I was right. Sometimes you have to use a combination of both logic and instincts, can't always be about strictly playing it by the book. Obv from everyone's answers above, if I had played this by the book at the river, I would have called (overwhelming consensus). My instincts just told me to fold this time. Thanks for letting us know what you had JD.