$109 NLHE MTT: fold or call?

jadaminato

jadaminato

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 36/21/20

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/324FdbCRW

The villain is a fish. He paid a 3bet with 53o and 2 barrels with a gutshot, and has shown some unbelievable showdows. I was about to pay thinking that he could has a project but his previous projects he has always been played on call. I didn't want to risk my life in the tournament.
 
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300HPGOD

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I am not qualified to give advice on $109 buy ins but I will just throw in my two cents anyway. Pre flop is the way it should be in my eyes for both you and villain. On the flop I think your bet sizing is just fine because anything in the 51-67% range is where you want to be given the flop and type of opponent. On the turn (which is a card I like because it is not an overcard but dont like it because if he has a 4 now we are beat) I think given what you say about the villain checking back is best. Yes, an overcard will most likely come on the river but that does not mean it will hit him. My plan would be to check this turn and see if villain bluffs the river. I would ready to call almost any river card that comes that is an overcard. If villain checked the river I would probably just check behind even though that is giving up some value but we would still have got 2 streets of value counting the pre flop raise. Betting on the turn opens yourself up to this check raise play. There is really not a hand you could have that you would love calling this with (assuming the 2s,3s, and A5 are out of your range since you raised from EP). Villain probably knows this and can abuse you. Checking allows him to trap himself. As played I agree with the fold too as you have a good chance at having him but the times you have him he has at least one if not two live overcards. To me, against a crazy player like this that could easily have a 4 its just not worth it.
 
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fundiver199

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The issue with this spot is, that Villain has a massive nut advantage. When we open from EP, we usually dont have baby pairs in our range or small suited connectors, so the only really strong hand, Hero can even have here, is A5s and on the turn maybe A4s. Villain on the other hand can absolutely have a boat, and he can have way more straights and trips as well. So he have way more hands, that dont mind playing a big pot.

And even if this particular Villain is perhaps a bit of a wild recreational player, and dont actually know the concept of nut advantage, he might still intuitively understand, that Hero rarely hit this board, and that its a great spot for him to apply pressure. So by betting flop and turn largely to protect our hand and charge draws, we created a spot, where it was super easy and profitable for Villain to attack us.

The solution is to either check back flop or check back turn and use our hand more as a bluff catcher. As said in the previous post, even if an overcard to our pair hits on the river, it does not mean, that Villain always has it. So we can comfortably call any reasonable bet hoping to catch a bluff and win a small pot.
 
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atcj13

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Against a fish I don't think this is a bluff often enough to call here.
The two posters above do a good job going into ranges. Personally against someone you have tagged as a fish, you should be trying to exploit his tendencies as much as possible. I would go larger with the flop bet, somewhere between 75-90% pot, depending how loose opponent seems to be calling. They will likely be calling with any pair, OESD, gutshot, flush draw, maybe even some overcards. You should be looking to punish those hands as much as possible to continue.
On the turn I would be checking back the vast majority of the time. At this point he is likely only continuing with better, and we don't improve often enough to make betting worthwhile.
 
jadaminato

jadaminato

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I am not qualified to give advice on $109 buy ins but I will just throw in my two cents anyway. Pre flop is the way it should be in my eyes for both you and villain. On the flop I think your bet sizing is just fine because anything in the 51-67% range is where you want to be given the flop and type of opponent. On the turn (which is a card I like because it is not an overcard but dont like it because if he has a 4 now we are beat) I think given what you say about the villain checking back is best. Yes, an overcard will most likely come on the river but that does not mean it will hit him. My plan would be to check this turn and see if villain bluffs the river. I would ready to call almost any river card that comes that is an overcard. If villain checked the river I would probably just check behind even though that is giving up some value but we would still have got 2 streets of value counting the pre flop raise. Betting on the turn opens yourself up to this check raise play. There is really not a hand you could have that you would love calling this with (assuming the 2s,3s, and A5 are out of your range since you raised from EP). Villain probably knows this and can abuse you. Checking allows him to trap himself. As played I agree with the fold too as you have a good chance at having him but the times you have him he has at least one if not two live overcards. To me, against a crazy player like this that could easily have a 4 its just not worth it.

The issue with this spot is, that Villain has a massive nut advantage. When we open from EP, we usually dont have baby pairs in our range or small suited connectors, so the only really strong hand, Hero can even have here, is A5s and on the turn maybe A4s. Villain on the other hand can absolutely have a boat, and he can have way more straights and trips as well. So he have way more hands, that dont mind playing a big pot.

And even if this particular Villain is perhaps a bit of a wild recreational player, and dont actually know the concept of nut advantage, he might still intuitively understand, that Hero rarely hit this board, and that its a great spot for him to apply pressure. So by betting flop and turn largely to protect our hand and charge draws, we created a spot, where it was super easy and profitable for Villain to attack us.

The solution is to either check back flop or check back turn and use our hand more as a bluff catcher. As said in the previous post, even if an overcard to our pair hits on the river, it does not mean, that Villain always has it. So we can comfortably call any reasonable bet hoping to catch a bluff and win a small pot.

Against a fish I don't think this is a bluff often enough to call here.
The two posters above do a good job going into ranges. Personally against someone you have tagged as a fish, you should be trying to exploit his tendencies as much as possible. I would go larger with the flop bet, somewhere between 75-90% pot, depending how loose opponent seems to be calling. They will likely be calling with any pair, OESD, gutshot, flush draw, maybe even some overcards. You should be looking to punish those hands as much as possible to continue.
On the turn I would be checking back the vast majority of the time. At this point he is likely only continuing with better, and we don't improve often enough to make betting worthwhile.





Thanks for your answers. Against any player I would also choose the check back but against this in particular I know that he ´s call station and he will pay me at least 2 barrels with any hand hoping to hit something, so I was just trying to extract value.
But when a call station checks raise you I guess there isn't much to think about. I appreciate your opinions, I will keep them in mind in another spots.
 
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Sidetracked

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Given your reads on this player, I think I would call here.

I am often amazed at what he and players like him will show up with in these spots.
 
Jon Poker

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When the turn pairs the top card i think i an inclined to check back here and elect to pot control and call off alot of river bets. It just really sucks when we do bet here and get raised and our fish could easily raise us with way less than 4x and put us into a really crummy spot. For those reasons I would elect to check here with inent to call alot of rivers
 
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UkoChebuko

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I think with many hands he will just call. Ax, Kx...This shove is for protection most likely. With trips or hand like 99-TT. I prefer fold as well. With 77...
 
eetenor

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 36/21/20

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/324FdbCRW

The villain is a fish. He paid a 3bet with 53o and 2 barrels with a gutshot, and has shown some unbelievable showdows. I was about to pay thinking that he could has a project but his previous projects he has always been played on call. I didn't want to risk my life in the tournament.


Thank U 4 Posting.

You seem to have some data that suggests this flop smashes this V's range. Then you bet big on the flop and V calls. The turn 4 diamonds is not a good card for us yet we bet again. The V has enough chips to make his first ever bluff or semi bluff here -there are 2 flush draws and possible straight and full houses as well- when we 1/3 pot turn this player will always see that as weak.
We can check back bluff catch vs a V this bad as we also get to bing a 7 sometimes and this V does not fold so we are not protecting with a turn bet.

Hope this helps
:):)
 
erik_lima

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Thanks for your answers. Against any player I would also choose the check back but against this in particular I know that he ´s call station and he will pay me at least 2 barrels with any hand hoping to hit something, so I was just trying to extract value.
But when a call station checks raise you I guess there isn't much to think about. I appreciate your opinions, I will keep them in mind in another spots.


Ok, he is a fish. If you think he is more a calling station, the bet on the turn is correct like you said.

But if he is a fish agressive/maniac a check behind on the turn is good to control the size of pot, and see his move on the river.

Btw, I don't play such expensive tournaments, but that's my opinion.
 
Viparida

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Well, in my opinion you could have checked the turn, especially if he was loose. You said he was a fish and the flop was definitely on his range so there was no reason to keep c-betting like you did on the turn i think.
 
Vallet

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I think you slowed down correctly. A pair of sevens on such a Board is not worth risking the entire stack. If the opponent can have absolutely any cards on the preflop, then the check - raise action on the turn gives us a certain kind of hint that we are behind.
 
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