$109 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: early in tournament facing AI with AK

[10058765]

poker stars $100+$9 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t75/t150 Blinds - 9 players - View hand 1272860
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
MP2: t4226 28.17 BBs
CO: t4381 29.21 BBs
BTN: t1997 13.31 BBs
SB: t2975 19.83 BBs
Hero (BB): t5050 33.67 BBs
UTG: t2840 18.93 BBs
UTG+1: t1790 11.93 BBs
UTG+2: t13741 91.61 BBs
MP1: t2969 19.79 BBs
Pre Flop: (t225) Hero is BB with A :club: K :club:

2 folds, UTG+2 raises to t300, 4 folds, SB calls t225, Hero raises to t1050, UTG+2 calls t750, 1 fold

Flop: (t2400) A :spade: J :club: 3 :spade: (2 players)
Hero bets t1650, UTG+2 raises to t12691 all in

What could be his range for such a bet ?
What do I do ?

 

[cardriverx]

You already have half your stack in the pot... so I think you have to call I think his range is probably:

AK, AJ, JJ, 33, (also you might include KQ of spades)

against that you are about 30% so I think you have to ugh call. If you include the KQ spades you are 31% and including AQ you are actually a 52% favorite.

But I don't think he has AQ.

I kept out AA because I think a usual player would 4-bet that. But with AA you are only 27% (a possible fold)

 

[moneybagz718]

tough call but i think hes probably chasin k high flush i would call

 

[naruto_miu]

Personally I think his Range is JJ-33 and AK/AQ, but other then that I mean really I can't see it, maybe KQs even but given His Position for raising (We shall Include KQs), but I'm still leaning towards the JJ..

I mean I just can't ever seeing a hand being played this way without it being JJ-maybe AK trying to not let you draw to the spade (Even though we know you don't got spades), so finally Probe at it is AK- with the King of Spades or JJ

 

[10058765]

Probably wrong, but at that moment I thought, no JJ.
I would have expected him to bet less with JJ.
I didn't expect AA either for the reason Cardriverx mentioned.
Actually also didn't expect 33, because I thought he would have folded to my 3-bet PF.
So, resume, I just couldn't figure it out, and sure wasn't afraid for QQ-KK.
Looking at his stack I also thought he must have been LAG or lucky. (had no further reads).
Still though, knowing the result, I don't know what I should think of a situation like this if it happens again in the future.
I mean, in a micro you could expect Ax, JJ, and even flusdraws, but in a
$ 109 BI, well no, not in my opinion.
So I actually called, having a big part of my stack in the middle already, and thinking I was way ahead most of the time.

 

[naruto_miu]

Probably wrong, but at that moment I thought, no JJ.
I would have expected him to bet less with JJ.
I didn't expect AA either for the reason Cardriverx mentioned.
Actually also didn't expect 33, because I thought he would have folded to my 3-bet PF.
So, resume, I just couldn't figure it out, and sure wasn't afraid for QQ-KK.
Looking at his stack I also thought he must have been LAG or lucky. (had no further reads).
Still though, knowing the result, I don't know what I should think of a situation like this if it happens again in the future.
I mean, in a micro you could expect Ax, JJ, and even flusdraws, but in a
$ 109 BI, well no, not in my opinion.
So I actually called, having a big part of my stack in the middle already, and thinking I was way ahead most of the time.

You don't expect JJ in this spot same with 33? Also Why would AK Be out of the Question with the King of spades ? Also why would he take such a strong line If you feel he had KK-QQ on that Dangerous board while your leading into Him?

 

[cjatud2012]

Can't really fold with more than half your stack in the pot. Besides you only need to be right ~23% of the time given pot odds, so it's really tough to find a fold here.

 

[10058765]

You don't expect JJ in this spot same with 33? Also Why would AK Be out of the Question with the King of spades ? Also why would he take such a strong line If you feel he had KK-QQ on that Dangerous board while your leading into Him?

I didn't rule out JJ or 33 but I thought chances were slim he had that.
I didn't feel he had KK or QQ, I'm just saying I wasn't afraid of it because I flopped my Ace.
I certainly agree AK was possible, but mathematically slim.All in all, I thought I was favourite in the hand.
Anyway, to me the call was easy, but the main reason I posted this hand was getting opinions on the range of villain.

So thanks for the replies, because I can look at it now from more than just my point of view.

I don't know if anyone wants to know, but I think you'll be very surprised for what he showed.
Probably I should just say, because it could get some opinions if it made sense what he did.

 

[naruto_miu]

I didn't rule out JJ or 33 but I thought chances were slim he had that.
I didn't feel he had KK or QQ, I'm just saying I wasn't afraid of it because I flopped my Ace.
I certainly agree AK was possible, but mathematically slim.All in all, I thought I was favourite in the hand.
Anyway, to me the call was easy, but the main reason I posted this hand was getting opinions on the range of villain.

So thanks for the replies, because I can look at it now from more than just my point of view.

I don't know if anyone wants to know, but I think you'll be very surprised for what he showed.
Probably I should just say, because it could get some opinions if it made sense what he did.

Ya I'd be interested to see it, plz email me the results, Because I mean I can't See past what I think He had, unless you had a certain read

 

[Gunner57]

Without seeing his previous play you could put him on either AK/AQ, KQs, and maybe 33 to round out but very unlikely. With his large chip stack you can also open his range to include AJ, A10 KJ, and KQ likely either suited or with at least 1 spade.

Based off of pre flop he could have JJ but unless he is figuring you are pot commiteed at this point and will call no matter what, he would not push back like this.

I would not figure AA in his range

Because it is early in the game if you fold you could catch up later but a win here puts you in good position. I would call and if lost move on...

Would be interested to see what he had.

 

[spunka]

Think he can put you on the AK hand, so unless he is on a bluff he's all in raise would fit with spade draw, maybe straight draw, AK, set JJJs but most likely 2 pairs AJ or A3.

The point here is your hand are most likely and A+ high card (Q or K) or a high pair he either think he can beat you or make you fold and he have a stack to try and make you fold a AK hand.

So it very much depends on which read he does have on you, have you been folding to big raises lately ..

 

[Pascal-lf]

You already have half your stack in the pot... so I think you have to call I think his range is probably:

AK, AJ, JJ, 33, (also you might include KQ of spades)

against that you are about 30% so I think you have to ugh call. If you include the KQ spades you are 31% and including AQ you are actually a 52% favorite.

But I don't think he has AQ.

I kept out AA because I think a usual player would 4-bet that. But with AA you are only 27% (a possible fold)

His range would be wider than that IMO:


AA, AK, AJ, JJ, 33 (less often than JJ), KQss, KJss, QJss

 

[cardriverx]

His range would be wider than that IMO:


AA, AK, AJ, JJ, 33 (less often than JJ), KQss, KJss, QJss

You think many players are raising pre from early position with KJss, QJss, and then calling a 3-bet?

I guess it's possible, but with this large a buy-in...

If you add those then it's an insta-call.

 

[Pascal-lf]

He's flatted a 3bet OOP and then jammed a flop, sounds like he's just mashing buttons.

 

[WiZZiM]

Am I the only one who's just flatting this pre flop?

 

[RamdeeBen]

Sound slike a call. He can be shoving much worse with so little blinds less. I wouldn't be surprised if he shows over a much weaker Ace.

 

[Bwammo]

Yeah I'm with wizzim here, I'm confused by the reraise so huge preflop. Was there a goal behind this play? Investing so much of our stack from OOP is rarely a good decision. If you want to reraise here, I'd certainly suggest just shoving. There was already 750 in the pot and us only having 5kish means we could pick up more than 10% of our stack without even seeing a flop. That being said, I'd definitely flat pre here and hope to outplay this fool when we both flop an ace or king.

 

[slobasaurus]

hi

I may have to fold for a couple of reasons, first being that the MTT just started.
And If UTG+2 is on a draw and hits it i'm scwued.
I wouldn't have re raised that much btw,

 

[DEdwardsNJ]

I may have to fold for a couple of reasons, first being that the MTT just started.
And If UTG+2 is on a draw and hits it i'm scwued.

Thats fine except for the fact that he's already put in 1/2 his stack, as played it pretty much has to be a call.

 

[cjatud2012]

This thread is very old - don't bump old threads please.