$100000 NLHE MTT: $ NLHE MTT: Question on why these odds are stated as they aer.

A

audacity

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So I'm watching this 'Phil Hellmuth gets felted three times' video on youtube, I'm sure it will load if you search by that title.

There is this hand showing the odds of each player

I am puzzled on this player Juanda listed at 6%

The Flop is simply

8 (D) 9 (D) 10 (S)



The hands are

Hansen 4(D) 4(S) 7%
Ivey 8(D) 8(H) 38%
Hellmuth A(D) J(S) 45%
and
Juanda A(C) 10(C) 6%


It's JUST that 6% - I can't figure out why Ace 10 only gets 6% favored, that's LESS than the 44. I mean - he's GOT a 10 10 already in the flop, sure Phil's Jack beats it -

But it's just seeing that A 10 is favored LESS than 4 4 when the flop is 9 10 J ?

If it's because 44 as a potential for a set? sure... okay, but Juanda TOO has a pair, it's just not a hole cards pair - but wouldn't the odds me the same Juanda can get a set too ?

Just wondering why A 10 is 6% but 4 4 gets 7% (more)

Thoughts anyone?
 
SouthparkSith

SouthparkSith

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You have something messed up? If Ivey already has a set he would be favored and the fours would be a much lower percentage? However to answer your question judging by the percentages the reason the fours are a bit higher is because Hellmuth holds an Ace which is on less out card available to him.
 
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formertroll

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So I'm watching this 'Phil Hellmuth gets felted three times' video on youtube, I'm sure it will load if you search by that title.

There is this hand showing the odds of each player

I am puzzled on this player Juanda listed at 6%

The Flop is simply

8 (D) 9 (D) 10 (S)

Hansen 4(D) 4(S) 7%
Ivey 8(D) 8(H) 38%
Hellmuth A(D) J(S) 45%
and
Juanda A(C) 10(C) 6%

Thoughts anyone?


it must have to do with stack sizes and chops/split pots because otherwise 88 dominates 44. either of these guys only hope is a chop.
 
A

audacity

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it must have to do with stack sizes and chops/split pots because otherwise 88 dominates 44. either of these guys only hope is a chop.

Well it's just Juanda's 10 10 that was ranked at 6% where the 44 was ranked at 7%

I just couldn't figure out why 10 10 would get a lower % to win than the 4 4 being 7% (vs 10 10 @ 6%) is all.

I'm thinking it must be because hole pairs are somehow worth more? Either way - thanks for response. I had to look up 'chop' so I benefited in exploring this question already heh- always learning.
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6ICZ-l2_tk?t=532
you reported the board wrong. its :9d4::jd4::10s4:

all these percentages take into account how the particular cards work together, and not just the value of one specific hand vs another specific hand. As such, the suits of each individual card matter enough for 1-2% swings in either direction.

as such the :8d4::8h4: have an open ender (8 outs twice, + 2 8s to make a set so 10 outs twice.)

:4d4::4s4: have 2 outs twice to make a set (hence almost 8%)

the :ac4::10c4: has 2 tens as outs, but because the :10d4: is one of the outs, if THAT out comes on the turn it give the :ad4::js4: a redraw to the nut flush with the :ad4: so the graphic automatically discounts that value.


The short answer is: because both the 4s and the 8s have a diamond in their hand, their remaining outs to trips are "cleaner" outs....no recdraws for Phil.
 
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