$1000 NLHE MTT: $1000 NLHE MTT: This hand haunts me almost 1 year later. fold top set on flop?

duggs

duggs

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scooping 2 pots 40% of the time multiway is a huge edge to be turning down. especially given what we have already put in. especially given that by the time the action is on us we need to put in an additional 5900 in chips, meaning we are over 10% above the equity threshold ignoring the contrasting effects of different hands on each pots equity i outlined above.

I did an equity calc with our hand at 48% v KK+ AKcc v 88/77 AQhh AThh KQhh T9s. against a wider villain 2 every single suited Ace we are still a 46% fav. giving him every single suited A and suited K we still have 42% equity.

we need 29% equity return to make a break even call, even in the most pessimistic of case we have that. our outs are always clean in both pots, or we dominate the side pot.

id tender if you can't make profitable decisions with 6 and 15bb stacks in a 1k live tourney, then you definitely don't have the edge required to pass up a hugely +cEV play.
 
duggs

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Even if this is so, are you putting any value on your tournament life?

just saw this but see above. don't know of anyone realistically good enough to turn down that edge.
 
duggs

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id be snapping off personally, and i think iv played exactly 3 1ks lifetime. maybe i look at tourneys a bit differently, but i have no expectation of cashing so once iv signed up the money is gone, turning down +EV spots is just being unfair to myself/backers. folding is the very definition of scared money and if we are turning down this edge now, are we really going to be willing to take correct shove spots where we bust 25% of the time?
 
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id be snapping off personally, and i think iv played exactly 3 1ks lifetime. maybe i look at tourneys a bit differently, but i have no expectation of cashing so once iv signed up the money is gone, turning down +EV spots is just being unfair to myself/backers. folding is the very definition of scared money and if we are turning down this edge now, are we really going to be willing to take correct shove spots where we bust 25% of the time?

ya i realized my post didn't make any sense. not really scared money however, it's just this specific situation, i think it's high risk/variance. and yeah only played one 1.5k event lifetime, didn't do any of the things mentioned, probably regret making certain plays when i could have folded to the money. likely affecting my decision in this hand. like you mention we have to do things that are risky to be able to cash/win so you are correct, and why i deleted my post (stupidity at 3am in morning)
 
Jacki Burkhart

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scooping 2 pots 40% of the time multiway is a huge edge to be turning down. especially given what we have already put in. especially given that by the time the action is on us we need to put in an additional 5900 in chips, meaning we are over 10% above the equity threshold ignoring the contrasting effects of different hands on each pots equity i outlined above.

I did an equity calc with our hand at 48% v KK+ AKcc v 88/77 AQhh AThh KQhh T9s. against a wider villain 2 every single suited Ace we are still a 46% fav. giving him every single suited A and suited K we still have 42% equity.

we need 29% equity return to make a break even call, even in the most pessimistic of case we have that. our outs are always clean in both pots, or we dominate the side pot.

id tender if you can't make profitable decisions with 6 and 15bb stacks in a 1k live tourney, then you definitely don't have the edge required to pass up a hugely +cEV play.


Thanks for all this analysis duggs and everyone. You've really opened my eyes to a bunch of other considerations. Gave me lots of things to think about.

I don't think I'll ever be folding top set on the flop again; or maybe any set. I guess poker players should never say never...but after reading all 29 responses it's hard for me to dream up a spot where folding top set on the flop is ideal. Can anyone think of a situation where you definitely should fold top set?

Also, how big of a mistake was my donk bet? Perhaps if I checked and player A made a smallish Cbet and player B may have raised less than all in I could have stuck around... Thoughts on my best action first to act on this flop?
 
Arjonius

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id tender if you can't make profitable decisions with 6 and 15bb stacks in a 1k live tourney, then you definitely don't have the edge required to pass up a hugely +cEV play.
I agree with this. If I'm out-matched by the field, I should play big pot poker and get it in if I think I'm +EV.

However, that's not the situation I'm trying to get my head around. Rather, even if I'm not concerned about my ability to play a 6bb or 15bb stacks, I wonder how willing I should be to take an action that, while probably +EV, also seems likely to leave me with one of those stack sizes more than half the time, this at a still fairly early stage when folding would leave me with 35bb, which would presumably still be one of the larger stacks at my table. Also, how relevant is it that the tournament is above my usual level, which suggests I can't count on the "law of averages" to average out my EV the same way I could in my usual games where I'll be in similar situations many more times?

Fwiw, my first impression when I read the original post was to call pretty quickly. I still think it's a reasonable choice. What I'm not settled on is whether it's the best choice after considering both the hand and the various meta-factors.
 
duggs

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I agree with this. If I'm out-matched by the field, I should play big pot poker and get it in if I think I'm +EV.

However, that's not the situation I'm trying to get my head around. Rather, even if I'm not concerned about my ability to play a 6bb or 15bb stacks, I wonder how willing I should be to take an action that, while probably +EV, also seems likely to leave me with one of those stack sizes more than half the time, this at a still fairly early stage when folding would leave me with 35bb, which would presumably still be one of the larger stacks at my table. Also, how relevant is it that the tournament is above my usual level, which suggests I can't count on the "law of averages" to average out my EV the same way I could in my usual games where I'll be in similar situations many more times?

Fwiw, my first impression when I read the original post was to call pretty quickly. I still think it's a reasonable choice. What I'm not settled on is whether it's the best choice after considering both the hand and the various meta-factors.

you would need to be a player with a far bigger edge than ill ever have to turn down such a hugely +EV spot. by this logic its going to be extremely hard to find any good shove or reshove spots later on that don't violate our extremely low risk threshold.
 
Arjonius

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you would need to be a player with a far bigger edge than ill ever have to turn down such a hugely +EV spot. by this logic its going to be extremely hard to find any good shove or reshove spots later on that don't violate our extremely low risk threshold.
You're making a seemingly reasonable not necessarily correct assumption, that being low-risk in this spot carries over to being low-risk with shorter stacks.

Also, if I fold, I won't be in the position of looking for shove and re-shove spots from the very next hand the majority of the time regardless of my risk threshold.
 
duggs

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you won't but its somewhat inevitable in tournaments, if you are this risk averse then tournaments really aren't for you imo
 
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