$1000 NLHE MTT: $1000 NLHE MTT: This hand haunts me almost 1 year later. fold top set on flop?

[Jacki Burkhart]

$1000 NLHE MTT: $1000 NLHE MTT: This hand haunts me almost 1 year later. fold top set on flop?

This is from a $1000 bracelet event last year at the wsop.

We are about 3.5 hours into day 1. I have the table covered with a stack of 8600 off a starting stack of 3000.

Player A raises to 500 from UTG+1. Very tight and aggressive. I would estimate their early position opening range to be 99+ and AQ+. This player has played few hands, and claims to be very tired from playing a venetian deep stacks event the night before and chopping 2 ways for $24,000 and not getting to bed until 6:00 am. believable story, pretty good player.

Player B flats from the Hijack. Somewhat on the loose side preflop, will play passively and call bets in position; but then only continues post flop with reasonable hands and applies a lot of pressure. I'd put their range at 55+ and AQ+ and any 2 suited broadway cards.

It folds to my BB and I look down at . I decide to play it cautiously since I don't want to play a big pot OOP vs. Player A's range. I check and hope to flop a set or overpair and re-assess after the flop.

Pot contains 1,600 Flop comes

perfect! top set. Normally I'd check to the raiser here, as I can suspect a Cbet close to 100% of the time, but with the hearts out there, I don't want to run the risk of giving a free card....just in case the opener has AK or AQ with a heart they might check behind...

so I bet out 1,000

Player A instantly goes all in for 3,600 and I think, ok, I'm gonna have to call and hope to hold up.

But then player B thinks, hesitates for a second, and goes all in over the top for a total of 6,900.

I'm now definitely putting Player A on an overpair, probably with a heart but maybe not a heart. I'm thinking AA or KK. Player B has a much wider range, but the problem is player B's range totally includes hands that smash this flop; dilemma is I've also smashed this flop.

Player B is a good player, plays a wide range but doesn't get involved in big pots without the goods. So at this point I think player B can basically only have a straight, a flush, or a set. There are some possible weird bluffs and draws I guess....but I can almost discount those.

I tank. What to do?

 

[duggs]

raise pre, ainec like seriously. but your terminology is confusing me, was this a limped pot? what are the blind levels?

 

[WiZZiM]

utg+1 raise to 500, so blind level is either 250 or 200 most likely duggs.

i'm not much of a MTT player, but if we have someone on a range of 99+ AQ+ our jacks really don't fare too well. we're OOP, overs flop something like 30% of the time (might be alittle off), and even on 9 4 3 boards, are we happy if villian 1 c-bets? now what? check/call/hope?

as played it's really up to you, but if we have any sort of skill edge i think i'm actually folding here, like we have top set, it's likely to be the best hand a decent amount but not all the time. there is just a ton of stuff out there on such a wet flop against multiple players.

basically what i'm asking myself here is "if i fold this, am i still doing really well in the tournament, am i outplaying this table?" yes! we are doing well, your reads provided you got your stack up to this without too much risk is it really worth taking this spot on, even with top set?

^ don't take this advise, it's just my 2 cents and i'm likely to be completely wrong in my thought process with MTT's

 

[Arjonius]

raise pre, ainec like seriously. but your terminology is confusing me, was this a limped pot? what are the blind levels?

It's stated that A open-raised. From the 1600 pot size at the flop, the blinds were 100 200.

 

[Arjonius]

I fold and feel sheepish if the board pairs.

Given A is a decent player and assuming he has a fair read on your style, what does he think you're donking with? Probably a hand that hit this flop pretty well. Since you probably don't have an overpair, that leaves sets, flushes, maybe the straight, and maybe something like Ah J if he doesn't hold the Ah. So what's he likely to shove his remaining stack with B still to act whose range may well have hit this flop too? I'd guess QQ+ probably with a heart, Ah Kh or Ah Qh.

Given B is a good player, you can assume he knows that both you and A are pretty strong. So what's he over-shoving with you still to act who has him covered?

Considering there's a long way to go in the tournament, I'm not strongly inclined to play for almost all my chips here. I'm not going to fold top set on the flop very often, but this is a spot where I might.

 

[duggs]

It's stated that A open-raised. From the 1600 pot size at the flop, the blinds were 100 200.

he also said he checked his big blind tho

 

[duggs]

not folding, if both players can have flushes or straights then we are always live, worst case scenario, guy who covers has flush and other guy has underset. but this is barely ever going to happen, either they both have flushes/straights and all our outs are live, or the guy who covers has an underset and we scoop that pot while have meh but ok equity in the other one. add in that opener can have over pairs and i don't think we can ever find a fold nor do we want to

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

sorry for the confusing language. blinds are 100/200. Player A did raise to 500 (so 2.5xbb) I did say I checked my BB, but what I meant was I flatted the raise.

sorry, that changes things quite a bit, I know.

anyways....I'm pretty OK with my preflop play in this situation. I'd been playing great against this table and decided to play JJ like a mid pair this time.

I don't know if I should donk the flop there or not, but I did.

after both players went all in I tanked. I finally decided that if their chip stacks were reversed so that player B had the smaller stack, I would call since if I could just win the side pot I'd still be OK in the tournament, and the chance to pair the board and scoop would be a huge pot at this stage. But, as the stacks were, I felt like player B was extremely strong, so I finally folded.

Player A turns over and player B turns over

the board runs out dry and my top set would have held up.

I still replay this hand in my head at least once a week....I don't know in tournament poker if it is really ever proper in the mid stages to fold top set on the flop. maybe on final table bubble when there's a bunch of all ins and straights and flushes on the board we can fold...but I don't think I'll ever be folding top set this far from the money again.

 

[duggs]

Yea never ever ever folding

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I've now folded a set on a flushy or straighty flop 3 times. twice I was wrong to fold.

I've almost folded top set on a flushy or straighty flop about 3 more times, but I ended up calling all 3 times and won 2 of those pots. Once I won because he was bluffing. Once he actually had the flush, but the board paired and I sucked out. And the 3rd time he semi bluffed with a flush draw and overs and I called and he hit his flush.

so...in my extremely low sample size of times to consider folding a set on the flop....out of 6 instances I only would have lost the pot 2 times.

 

[Karozi615]

This is an interesting hand. I think you have to look at this hand differently because we are in a tournament. In a cash game this would be a challenging fold, but in a tournament I see it as nearly impossible.
The reason why is this:
highly competent players understand that the essence of tournament play is chip accumulation. The aggressive nature of their bets could potentially be flopped flushes, but even against a flopped flush we have considerable equity.
However, the range of our opponents also consists of overpairs with hearts and smaller sets.
All things considered, I think a lot of the time you have to improve here, and some of the time you have to hold.
With that being said, I don't see many players good enough to fold here... the fact of the matter is you have a tremendous amount of equity 3 ways and winning this pot exponentially increases your chances of going deep.
You have to view the value of tournament chips differently than cash. Having a bigger stack gives you so much more flexibility and dramatically increases the chances of you going deep. The implied result of winning a hand like this is that you put yourself in a great position at later stages.
Also I didn't even notice that you said they turned over 77 and AA until just now after scrolling up, but that only confirms my assessment that you beat a fair enough amount of their range to get it in here.
It's just a set up hand, nobody can fold, even the aces have 2 extra outs as well as flush outs.

 

[duggs]

What? This is an easier call in a cash game. Stacks depths are weirdly shallow tho

 

[Karozi615]

true duggs ^

I would much rather be in this spot 150 bigs deep with a hand thats crushed by flushes, straights, and slightly ahead of overpairs with redraws

the assumption of cash is that your way deeper

i was trying to make the point that chip accumulation is so essential in tourneys that if its really close and the swings are going to be huge you should just go for it

obviously if you have under 50 bigs in a cash game and you flop top set your not going anywhere lolol

 

[WiZZiM]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.914% 36.54% 00.37% 330 3.33 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 04.910% 04.54% 00.37% 41 3.33 { 7c7d }
Hand 2: 58.176% 57.81% 00.37% 522 3.33 { JcJs }

best case scenario. obv we're more concerned with the 77 hand as there is more chips involved, but we're not to know that here. once you start adding some more hands to the 77 guys range, it starts to become a coinflip or worse pretty fast.

these results suprised me, i thought you would be further ahead on this best case scenario flop. 58% is probably still well good enough to ship it here though, but again, we can't exclude made hands/draws from the 77 guys range. he's the range we should be most concerned about, and i think it's likely the strongest, so we can maybe exclude draws?

interesting, thoughts?

 

[duggs]

The side pot matters a bunch here, we are getting such a good price we need way less than 30% equity to call off.

 

[WiZZiM]

ya, agree there. but the side pot is what i feel has the strongest range overall. with reads i'm not overly concerned with villian 1. i guess the other thing that hasn't been mentioned is that we still have a stack when we call and lose... ya getting a little over 2:1 i think on this flop?

range estimates for villian 2 guys?

 

[duggs]

yea bit of both tbh, EP has most over pairs but also more nut flushes, if he isn't as set heavy then oversetting in the side pot happens relatively often, and if not none of our outs are blocked, i think thats key, OR can rarely block our outs which means including times we are way ahead with crushing equity its a fist pump spot.

probably all sets, AQhh AJhh KQhh T9s 77/88/78 maybe. of course whats key is that the OR range will block all of that except the part we crush so some discounting needs to happen.

 

[WiZZiM]

i'm not sure if he would even shove a nut flush here, i know i probably wouldn't have much of a reason to shove, probably discount those nut flush hands from villain 1 a little as well?

I think villian 2 can easily have stuff like 87s here? i know op has them on specific ranges preflop, but it's possible a low flush got there. but yeah i think i'm underestimating our outs in this spot even if we are behind.

i punched what i think are really solid ranges in pokerstove and got 49% overall equity, which is misleading because against the range we're most concerned about we're a clear 60% favourite, and we're a little bit better against villian 1's stack.

i excluded nut flush hands from villian 1, and gave villian 2 some more random SC type hands to make it worst case for us.


really cool spot, learnt a lot thanks jacki/duggs!

 

[duggs]

thing is since this has a side pot our outs being dead isn't the biggest deal in the world, since then range that deadens our outs is in the side pot with us, so as we lose comparative equity in the main pot, we gain it in the side pot. either all of our outs are live and we somehow ran into villain 2 with a nutty hand, or we are crushing in the side pot and are either up against a flush/straight/overpair and just have to hold or hit our unblocked outs.

like if both villains have same stack size this decision becomes way less enticing for us (but still not a fold)

 

[Jblocher1]

I actually had an almost identical hand today at 50NL.... I had QQ the board ran out Q108 all hearts. I was IP.... Villain one bet the pot.... Villain two jammed over and I insta folded. Villain one called.

Villain 1 had 9J.... And villain two flopped a flush. So.... I think hero can fold here sadly

 

[duggs]

really?
you have soooo much equity you have 35% equity in that scenario.

 

[Jblocher1]

It was sorta a gut instinct fold, tbh I didn't really even think about it. Upon review a call would have made sense, but I knew I was behind

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

The side pot matters a bunch here, we are getting such a good price we need way less than 30% equity to call off.

I took a long time to fold, and what I was doing in that time was deciding if I could call because of the side pot. I ultimately decided that I'd be playing for the side pot with the stronger of the 2 hands...and I was pretty convinced that Player B (the bigger stack) had at least a straight; so I'd most likely either scoop the whole pot, or lose the whole pot.

maybe I was just seeing monsters under the bed, I don't know. Neither of these players were donks or unreasonable players. this is not a $1 online tourney, but a $1,000 bracelet event. people take those fairly seriously even if it's just a $1k event. Tourney life really means something to most players in all live events, but especially in higher buy in events.

ya, agree there. but the side pot is what i feel has the strongest range overall. with reads i'm not overly concerned with villian 1. i guess the other thing that hasn't been mentioned is that we still have a stack when we call and lose... ya getting a little over 2:1 i think on this flop?

range estimates for villian 2 guys?

totally. by the time the action played out, I was pretty sure Player A had an overpair, with or without a heart. obviously their hand is way stronger with a heart.

i'm not sure if he would even shove a nut flush here, i know i probably wouldn't have much of a reason to shove, probably discount those nut flush hands from villain 1 a little as well?

I think villian 2 can easily have stuff like 87s here? i know op has them on specific ranges preflop, but it's possible a low flush got there. but yeah i think i'm underestimating our outs in this spot even if we are behind.

i punched what i think are really solid ranges in pokerstove and got 49% overall equity, which is misleading because against the range we're most concerned about we're a clear 60% favourite, and we're a little bit better against villian 1's stack.

i excluded nut flush hands from villian 1, and gave villian 2 some more random SC type hands to make it worst case for us.


really cool spot, learnt a lot thanks jacki/duggs!

Player A was a good enough player to NOT shove with the nuts into 2 players on a flop like this. I could pretty much eliminate the nut flush from player A.

Now...I still think calling might have been better here, not because I'm ahead...because I am usually going to be beat in at least 1 spot here....but because we are still in the accumulation phase of day 1 of a 3 day tourney and I've always got live outs and reasonable equity in a monster pot. Calling and losing would take me from table chip leader to table short stack, but I'd still be alive....but calling and taking this pot would add so much value to my chances of making a deep run. In fact, player B (who won this pot) and ended up making it to final 3 tables...so really deep. I do think player B was also a better player than me...but I'm no slouch and those chips would have helped a ton.

The only reason that I still think folding was kind of OK or at least not terrible is because #1 my read tells me I'm likely beat....usually my reads are pretty good. #2 I was doing just fine against this table without taking too many big risks. I should be able to continue to slowly chip up as long as my table didn't break soon.

Probably the hardest fold I've ever made in my life, and I was absolutely sick when they tabled their hands, and even sicker by the river.

 

[duggs]

Mathematically I can't see any ranges where folding is correct.

 

[Arjonius]

I'm now definitely putting Player A on an overpair, probably with a heart but maybe not a heart. I'm thinking AA or KK. Player B has a much wider range, but the problem is player B's range totally includes hands that smash this flop; dilemma is I've also smashed this flop.

Player B is a good player, plays a wide range but doesn't get involved in big pots without the goods. So at this point I think player B can basically only have a straight, a flush, or a set. There are some possible weird bluffs and draws I guess....but I can almost discount those.

I tank. What to do?

Using these assumptions, our top set is somewhere around 40%, mainly depending on what suited heart hands we put in B's pre-flop calling range. A is around 15% and B around 45%.

If we call, our stack will be about 20.2k when we win, 3.3k when we just win the side pot, and 1.2k when we lose to B.

Considering we'll be either crippled down to 6bb or reduced to an awkward, smallish 16bb 60% of the time, the key question seems to be whether the benefit of jumping up to 20.2k warrants the risk at a still fairly early stage in the tournament.

I don't think there's a pat answer since there are tournament and table factors to consider, not just the hand odds.