$10 NLHE MTT Rebuy: WHAT TO DO IN THIS SPOT?

seeyouthru

seeyouthru

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SO DEEP STAGE IN THE TOURNEY, AROUND 6 AWAY FROM MONEY!
BLINDS ARE 2000/4000 400ANTE HERO IS IN BB WITH A STACK OF (21-22BB).
VILLIAN UTG WITH STACK OF 9 BB OPENS 2.6X.
SB(24BB) FLATS FROM SB,
I HAVE AQo.
THE READ I HAVE ON UTG PLAYER IS THAT IN EARLY STAGE OF TOURNAMENT HE FLATTED JJ AND AA TWICE AND GOT LUCKY AND PAID BY PLAYERS,
AND SB IS ON CAUTIOUS SIDE(CAN FOLD STRONG hands TO A SHOVE)!
HERE I DECIDED TO SHOVE AND UTG CALLS WITH AA AND SB FOLDS!
WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT MY PLAY?
AND UTG OPENING NOT SHOVING ALSO!
 
Jblocher1

Jblocher1

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Based off of experience I would go ahead and say a 2.6x from UTG on a 9BB stack is going to be exclusively QQ/KK/AA and maybe a rare AK so i feel pretty comfortable folding here
 
seeyouthru

seeyouthru

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Based off of experience I would go ahead and say a 2.6x from UTG on a 9BB stack is going to be exclusively QQ/KK/AA and maybe a rare AK so i feel pretty comfortable folding here
Thats also what i thought.
But i have a problem of not thinking enough before making a decision!
I need meditation lol
 
smknginmaine

smknginmaine

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I think as a standard, little to no additional information, the shove is the correct play. You've already got your BB in and the pot with antes means you're getting an insanely good price for the additional 1.6BB.
I believe you made the correct play. I really don't like a flat. But I think it's better than a fold. And, there's not enough to make a raise under an A/I make any sense.
That said.... You will run into this spot again, and if you've got your opponent pegged for aa kk qq ak......I suppose you could go by the results of this hand and fold.... But if your opponent has any sense or ability to learn - they'll exploit your pants off.
THIS time a fold would have saved you. But if your opponent really only plays their top few %of hands...They probably haven't made it as deep and they certainly won't go much further...unless they go on the heater of a lifetime, in which case your actions won't matter much anyway.
Granted you have the information on how that player played a particular hand early in the tourney...But what about all the hands since?
If you have the ability to make insane reads based on a hand or two under different circumstances, correctly a high % of the time..... Than I assure you, you don't need any advice from anyone on here. Myself included. But if you fold that hand often based on your read...... A LOT of folks will want you on their table. Myself included :)
 
SuzdalDEcor

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Good push. Just unlucky. You must be more lucky next times :)
 
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5pAce_C0wb0y

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SO DEEP STAGE IN THE TOURNEY, AROUND 6 AWAY FROM MONEY!
BLINDS ARE 2000/4000 400ANTE HERO IS IN BB WITH A STACK OF (21-22BB).
VILLIAN UTG WITH STACK OF 9 BB OPENS 2.6X.
SB(24BB) FLATS FROM SB,
I HAVE AQo.
THE READ I HAVE ON UTG PLAYER IS THAT IN EARLY STAGE OF TOURNAMENT HE FLATTED JJ AND AA TWICE AND GOT LUCKY AND PAID BY PLAYERS,
AND SB IS ON CAUTIOUS SIDE(CAN FOLD STRONG HANDS TO A SHOVE)!
HERE I DECIDED TO SHOVE AND UTG CALLS WITH AA AND SB FOLDS!
WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT MY PLAY?
AND UTG OPENING NOT SHOVING ALSO!

So we need to ask ourselves 1 question here is the villain a poor player who would raise to 2.6BB with a 9BB stack? If the answer is yes then shoving is absolutely the right move. However if not it means they haven't shoved themselves because they are happy to be called or shoved upon which means they have a very strong holding.
 
I

Ianmacca99

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Off that stack size I would expect a big hand QQ + he would certainly rip 7+ in and AK AQ . Going off your earlier read think a fold is the better play you've got no fold equity for the under the gun player IMO he isn't putting a quarter of his stack in to fold so I wouldn't be shoving there.
 
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