$10 NLHE MTT Rebuy: 6K PHAT ACR Bubble: How bad am I really?

[yunghm]

This hand is from the 6k 10+1 buy in on ACR. Starting stack is 5k. I got to about 45k until this hand on the literal bubble (I top 20 out of 100 in chips). Do I pot the turn and hope he folds? thanks for any insight.


Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 500/1000 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

monu_badmash (UTG+1): 10.32 BB (VPIP: 15.63, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 32)
8fivesuited (MP): 44.22 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 21.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
FlpFlopFloyd (MP+1): 81.71 BB (VPIP: 5.41, PFR: 2.78, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 74)
WhoreRunner (CO): 7.93 BB (VPIP: 26.79, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 56)
SpanksPoppa (BTN): 40.42 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
bazookaaa (SB): 12.95 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 8.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 50)
yunghm (BB): 41.78 BB
happyfishgirl (UTG): 44.81 BB (VPIP: 20.64, PFR: 14.72, 3Bet Preflop: 7.55, Hands: 346)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, bazookaaa posts SB 0.5 BB, yunghm posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) yunghm has 9s Kd
fold, fold, fold, FlpFlopFloyd raises to 2.75 BB, fold, SpanksPoppa calls 2.75 BB, fold, yunghm calls 1.75 BB

Flop : (9.75 BB, 3 players) 8d 6c Ks
yunghm checks, FlpFlopFloyd bets 3.44 BB, fold, yunghm calls 3.44 BB

Turn : (16.63 BB, 2 players) 9h
yunghm checks, FlpFlopFloyd checks

River : (16.63 BB, 2 players) Th
yunghm bets 16.63 BB, FlpFlopFloyd raises to 75.4 BB and is all-in, yunghm calls 18.84 BB and is all-in

FlpFlopFloyd shows Ad 7h (Straight, Ten High)
(Pre 60%, Flop 16%, Turn 18%)

yunghm shows 9s Kd (Two Pair, Kings and Nines)
(Pre 40%, Flop 84%, Turn 82%)

FlpFlopFloyd wins 87.56 BB

 

[NCDaddy]

Even if you pot bet and hope....even if he bets turn and you raise (I assume you're check raising there) I think your chips are going in and result is same. He has open ended with an over..,.I don't think he folds if you pot it

 

[yunghm]

Folding?

I know folding is an option. Preflop im getting good goods for the call in the BB with a very marginal hand. The opening raiser from late position has an exteemely right opening range and has an enormous chip lead. He must have AJ+ maybe queens. The flop is a small continuation bet and I decide to call even though I am beat a lot of times with AK OR KQ. However when I turn the 9 I feel great about the hand, and the turn is checked back. I know I need to check the river but I don’t, and fire way too much at the pot, to the point I have no choice but to call an all in. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated as I am a new player and trying to find the right plays in spots like this. I have been a very tight player in the past but have found a lot of recent success playing a looser style, especially once the tournament is deep and I have a lot more chips than most people, winning chips without a showdown is a huge factor in running deep, and you have to play more than 12 percent of hands preflop to generate these chips, which requires you to play K9o from the big blind 3 ways at least some of the time right?

 

[kkonicke]

I think I'm playing this one identically to you up until the river. I don't understand why such a large sizing when 4 to the straight gets there. All his 7s and QJ are for sure checking that spot(Maybe K7 bets but I doubt he ever has that). Once he jams, his range gets super polarized and it's likely either complete air(AQ off) or a straight. Maybe once in a while he'll have pocket 10s. I think all sets and AK/KQ are making a healthy turn bet, and all worse 2 pair are calling river instead of jamming. Long story short, your 2 pair is mostly a bluff catcher on the river. I think if I'm in that spot, I bet something like 5-6 BB on the river and cry when he raises. If he raised to something like 20 BB I might call as some lower 2 pair might do that, but I wouldn't call a jam.

 

[ssbn743]

This hand is from the 6k 10+1 buy in on ACR. Starting stack is 5k. I got to about 45k until this hand on the literal bubble (I top 20 out of 100 in chips). Do I pot the turn and hope he folds? thanks for any insight.


Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 500/1000 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

monu_badmash (UTG+1): 10.32 BB (VPIP: 15.63, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
8fivesuited (MP): 44.22 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 21.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
FlpFlopFloyd (MP+1): 81.71 BB (VPIP: 5.41, PFR: 2.78, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 74)
WhoreRunner (CO): 7.93 BB (VPIP: 26.79, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 56)
SpanksPoppa (BTN): 40.42 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
bazookaaa (SB): 12.95 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 8.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 50)
yunghm (BB): 41.78 BB
happyfishgirl (UTG): 44.81 BB (VPIP: 20.64, PFR: 14.72, 3Bet Preflop: 7.55, Hands: 346)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, bazookaaa posts SB 0.5 BB, yunghm posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) yunghm has 9s Kd
fold, fold, fold, FlpFlopFloyd raises to 2.75 BB, fold, SpanksPoppa calls 2.75 BB, fold, yunghm calls 1.75 BB

Flop : (9.75 BB, 3 players) 8d 6c Ks
yunghm checks, FlpFlopFloyd bets 3.44 BB, fold, yunghm calls 3.44 BB

Turn : (16.63 BB, 2 players) 9h
yunghm checks, FlpFlopFloyd checks

River : (16.63 BB, 2 players) Th
yunghm bets 16.63 BB, FlpFlopFloyd raises to 75.4 BB and is all-in, yunghm calls 18.84 BB and is all-in

FlpFlopFloyd shows Ad 7h (Straight, Ten High)
(Pre 60%, Flop 16%, Turn 18%)

yunghm shows 9s Kd (Two Pair, Kings and Nines)
(Pre 40%, Flop 84%, Turn 82%)

FlpFlopFloyd wins 87.56 BB

Well, this is a pretty bad hand on both ends.

I think this is a clear fold pre-flop. If villain can have hands like A7o in his range, and will actually fold, we could make a case to 3-bet pre-flop, but once we start dropping K9 into our 3-bet range things get a little dicey. Fold pre-flop is the best play IMO.

As played the check/call flop is perfectly fine and completely standard.

Two-Pair on turn presents a few options, but I think I prefer to stop'n'go - lead turn. For exactly this reason, him checking back is a disaster for us. If you think he'll bet, checking can be fine as both a check/raise and a check/call, very villain specific though. I still think I prefer a lead on this turn specifically - there's just too great a chance villain checks behind.

As played, this is probably a check/call river, though the T is about the worst card you could see. So check/folding is fine too as played.

But, if we play pre-flop and/or turn better we can likely avoid this spot altogether.

 

[Veritas]

not sure what to think About your Play....
I wouldn't mind folding K9o preflop either.
hitting top Pair check calling is fine, but check raising should be fine aswell. we might see a lot of Ax folding then.
leading the turn with top 2 for value is better than checking to give V a free rivercard.
But what i really don't understand is the pot size 'value' bet for half of your stack with 4 Cards to a straight on the board. I would rather check call here. Which Hands in his range would call here? A set? KT?; most other Hands will fold. with which Hands would he reraise to put you all-in? I think it's Pretty much 7x/QJ only

 

[mara2259]

It was clearly not your day. Postflop check allowed the villain to stay in the game. His minraise was just a bluff. The turn check provided him with another free card, although eight outs on the street and three aces in the deck allowed him to call almost any of your raises. Straight you obviously blinked. On the board, a leaky straight draw and it’s hard to imagine which two cards you put to the villain who answered with an overbet on your bet the size of the pot. With a raise, you are too hot, and the call does not find any explanation. However, you still had about 19BB.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop: As others have said, you dont have to defend K9o here. You are probably getting the right price equity wise, but you are out of position to both players, and your hand suffer from reverse implied odds.


Flop: Check-calling with top pair bad kicker is definitly the correct play. Check-raising, as someone suggested, would be a massive overplay.

Turn: Checking again to the preflop raiser is the standard play. Here its important to not get results oriented. In real time we did not know, that he picked up a draw, and would check it back. Which by the way was a mistake by him. He is supposed to fire the second bullet, when he picked up equity.

River: Betting for value is for sure the right play, but its a bet-fold, not a bet-call, and I think, a smaller sizing work a lot better. It seem like, you are trying to make up for missed value, because the turn went check-check, but you are almost overrepresenting your hand by betting so big. There is after all a 1-liner to a straight, so this is actually a somewhat thin value bet.