$10 NLHE MTT: good spot to shove?

[js520]

I got deep into a tournament last night. There were about 250 players to start with, top 30 got paid and with every place inside the top 10 the amount being paid increased quite significantly. So I'm down to the final 4 with about 22bb left.

At this stage there was lot of blind stealing going on from everyone at the table (as you'd expect) and most of the time people were folding if faced with a 3-bet. The villain in this hand had been varying his raising sizes from 2x to 4x but it seemed quite random and I didn't have a read of when he was raising 4x and when he was raising 2x. Anyway this hand came up, good spot for a shove? There's not much he's going to call with so is it a good play in the long run? Or just fold and wait for a better spot?

Evryone post the ante of 500, SB posts 2500, BB posts 5000

CO (140,934)
BTN (280,800)
SB (139,872)
BB - hero (112,894)

Hero is dealt Kd,10d

Pre-flop (9,500)
1 fold, BTN raises to 19,500, 1 fold, Hero?

 

[BlueNowhere]

Fold, I don't think villain will open wide enough and call tight enough to make this a shove. Especially since I think his range has to be weighted to a more valuey range since he's most likely a live retard who is going to 4x strong hand and min-raise weak hands.

If you estimate a calling range of AT+, KQs and 77+ we have just over 35% equity when called. So just solve for a BE opening range.

E = (29000*f)=((1-f)*((0.35715*235288)-112894))

So E has to be greater than or equal to 0, where E is our total equity. So just rearrange to find f and you get ~50%. If villain opens >17% and calls with the range I've given him I'm actually leading towards jamming now I've worked it out. It depends heavily on villains opening/calling range. Obv if he's going to call hands like KJs and KQo we need more FE whereas if he folds something like AT and calls all PP we need less FE. If you disagree with any of my assumptions just change numbers and re-work it out.

 

[Hardcorecake]

I would fold...really no reason to push here your in decent posistion with chip count compaired to other stacks.

 

[BlueNowhere]

I would fold...really no reason to push here your in decent posistion with chip count compaired to other stacks.

What range do you think Button opens and what range do you think he calls that makes this a fold?

 

[js520]

I don't know what his calling range is but he was definitely opening >17% at this point, probably more like 30%

 

[BlueNowhere]

It's going to come down to villains 4x range then, if he can 4x with 30% hands then I'm snap jamming and I don't think it's paticularly close against any calling range.

 

[Hardcorecake]

I think if you reraise he will defiantly call with position....that being said a push might work....I just hate putting my eggs all in one baskett with a hand like k 10 diamonds preflop, I would usually only play that with 10 or less bbs left. Plus he sounds agressive opening 30% of time so a pretty wide range on button and with a stack that even if he calls my push would leave him 2nd in chips....could make his calling range pretty open...I honestly wouldn't have a clue what he has so that would lead me to fold.

 

[BlueNowhere]

I think if you reraise he will defiantly call with position....that being said a push might work....I just hate putting my eggs all in one baskett with a hand like k 10 diamonds preflop, I would usually only play that with 10 or less bbs left. Plus he sounds agressive opening 30% of time so a pretty wide range on button and with a stack that even if he calls my push would leave him 2nd in chips....could make his calling range pretty open...I honestly wouldn't have a clue what he has so that would lead me to fold.

These aren't good reasons for folding imo. The only case for folding if using the equation I gave E comes out as a negative number.

 

[MasterOfDisaster]

shove

 

[Ducky7]

Fold and look for better spots, you are 4 handed and going to get lots of spots to shove over BTN steals and steal yourself.

 

[duggs]

fold based on sizing, id be jamming if he minraised it

 

[Loonbat]

Fold and look for better spots, you are 4 handed and going to get lots of spots to shove over BTN steals and steal yourself.

Wat?!

No - you do not have alot of spots and I actually prefer the KTs to Ace rag for most ships. Given this was within his standard opening raise (between 2 and 4x), I like a ship here, particularly given your statement that most folded to the 3-bet.

If this was unusual sizing, I'd fold.

 

[BEERM4N]

fold based on sizing, id be jamming if he minraised it

This...

You have a perfect resteal stack against a min raise. You'll find that fish will raise bigger with premiums aswell.

Fold.