$10 NLHE MTT Bounty Rebuy: ?

M

Muzyka1996

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my position 67/450, 50 players to ITM
79,7 BB



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F

fundiver199

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He is raising UTG, and then he gets 3-bet by a player from MP, who have him covered. Its near the money bubble, and he has 60BB to start the hand, so busting now is an absolute ICM disaster for him. Yet after min-raising he now puts in a chunky 4-bet risking 1/3 of his chips. This action just scream strenght, and I think, there is a very high likelyhood, he has AA or KK, even though we block those hands.

For that reason I would have folded to the 4-bet. Chip preservation is important in tournaments, and this simply looks like a really bad spot. The absolute best case scenario is, you are against QQ or another AK. And even when that is the case, you will miss the flop 2/3 of the time (more if he has AK), and then you will typically end up folding to his jam. Which is exactly, what happened.
 
K

kkonicke

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The real decision here is after his 4 bet, everything else is pretty standard. I understand fundiver's thought on the fold, but I also wonder if you could jam and push him off JJ/QQ/AK considering the money bubble. As noted, you block AA and KK. I think calling here is the worst play. I'm honestly undecided whether a jam or fold is best here. I also could be very wrong about my thought process on this hand, I would be curious what others would think about jamming this spot.
 
Collin Moshman

Collin Moshman

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I think you played the hand well. Pre-flop any type of read would be very helpful. Readless I agree with Fundiver that he's showing a lot of strength and folding would be a good option even though we have AKs. But it's close -- we're getting better than 2:1 with position and a very strong/playable hand, so I think that it's very reasonable to take a flop and evaluate.

And as played, folding flop is correct for sure.
 
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300HPGOD

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I would call the 4 bet pre in this situation because we have suited AK. If we had off suit AK I would be folding here preflop. I agree with others that we are against a tight range here that maybe has JJ in it but more than likely it is QQ+. I even highly discount the AK here since we block it plus villain should not want to be playing for stacks here on this stack depth with AK (maybe that is giving villain too much credit for thinking and understanding the situation). With all that we can believe that much of the time we are going against exactly QQ here. Now that our hand is suited any A, K, or at least two diamonds on the flop we are going with here.

If the actual flop had J of diamonds instead of J of hearts I would be calling their jam. We would then be a fav against QQ, very close to true flipping with KK, and about 37% with AA which we are getting the odds to call with. I am tournament life guy normally but I dont like folding AK suited pre since we get built in protection from the hands we are really scared of. If I am calling here I am going with the flops that I mentioned and folding out those that dont qualify. I know we shouldnt be playing hands just because they are easy to play post flop but I feel like this hand is easy to play post flop with good implied odds (and unfortunately if against AA will have some bad reverse implied odds on K flops).
 
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