$10 NLHE: 4 in the money - Do I fold to raise w/ weak stack still in?

[Pokerstudent]

$10 NL HE: 4 in the money - Do I fold to raise w/ weak stack still in?

Four players left. Guy to my left raises EVERY HAND. Chip leader has always made small raises w/ 66's, KJs, 1010's....good hands. I have also seen him raise small with a good hand (KK's, 1st to act). He has started raising a bit more to steal. Short stack has been tight.

full tilt poker $10 + $1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t400/t800 Blinds - 4 players - View hand 731466
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
Henk078 (SB): t3260 M = 2.72
Hero (BB): t5830 M = 4.86
Jay1980E (CO): t14346 M = 11.96
Danilo_Dias (BTN): t17064 M = 14.22
Pre Flop: (t1200) Hero is BB with K

Q

1 fold, Danilo_Dias raises to t17064 all in, 1 fold, Hero calls t5030 all in
Flop: (t12060) 2

3

5

Turn: (t12060) 9

River: (t12060) 6

Final Pot: t12060
Hero shows K

Q

(King Queen high)
Danilo_Dias shows T

A

(Ace Ten high)
Danilo_Dias wins t12060

You can see the result, but I don't play results-oriented poker. His shove was the first time I have seen him do it preflop. What do you typically do with KQsuited? How does this change with the shortish stack behind me?

 

[jaded848]

I'm still an amateur but after experiencing a decent number of shove/fold scenarios, I can tell you my opinion of KQ, even KQs, has plummeted. The reasoning is two-fold:

1) Players love to shove aces, so when you call, you are often up against some kind of ace
2) Even if they shove A2o, they are still ahead (only 5%, but still).

Because of these reasons, KQs is still a good hand to shove, but I absolutely hate calling with it. 1/3 of the time you're racing, 1/3 the time you are slightly behind to a weak ace, and 1/3 of the time you are dominated by AK, AQ, or the top pocket pairs. Of course, every now and then you face KJ (the only hand I hate more than KQ), which is a nice surprise

Also, it's important to mention that this is only in regard to preflop shove/fold play. I still think KQs plays great postflop.

 

[c9h13no3]

This is a simple pot odds question. You said he shoves every hand, but lets assume he shoves half of them. I expect he's also shoving every hand he plays at this point. Earlier in the SnG, he may have raised smaller with good hands when he had a deeper stack, but those reads don't apply here. But here, his effective stack has an M of 4.86.

Anyways, KQs against a wide range of the top 35% looks like this:

Hand 0: 46.096% { 22+, A2s+, K3s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A4o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+ }
Hand 1: 53.904% { KQs }

Slight favorite. Okay, however in a SnG, we need better than pot odds to call him, because each chip doesn't give up the same amount of money. Search up ICM on this forum if you're curious how all this works, but if we plug the chip stacks into the ICM calculator....

If you fold, you have 19% tournament equity.
If you call and win, you have 30% tournament equity.
If you call and lose, you have 0% equity (obviously).

So, you have to win this hand 64% of the time in order to profit. Since we only have 54% equity with KQs preflop against his range, we fold.

Shoulda folded.

And that's how SnG's work. Lots of shoving really wide ranges of hands preflop, and your opponent's are forced to fold a huge percentage of the time.

 

[TopDonk]

This is a simple pot odds question. You said he shoves every hand, but lets assume he shoves half of them. I expect he's also shoving every hand he plays at this point. Earlier in the SnG, he may have raised smaller with good hands when he had a deeper stack, but those reads don't apply here. But here, his effective stack has an M of 4.86.

Anyways, KQs against a wide range of the top 35% looks like this:

Hand 0: 46.096% { 22+, A2s+, K3s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A4o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+ }
Hand 1: 53.904% { KQs }

Slight favorite. Okay, however in a SnG, we need better than pot odds to call him, because each chip doesn't give up the same amount of money. Search up ICM on this forum if you're curious how all this works, but if we plug the chip stacks into the ICM calculator....

If you fold, you have 19% tournament equity.
If you call and win, you have 30% tournament equity.
If you call and lose, you have 0% equity (obviously).

So, you have to win this hand 64% of the time in order to profit. Since we only have 54% equity with KQs preflop against his range, we fold.

Shoulda folded.

And that's how SnG's work. Lots of shoving really wide ranges of hands preflop, and your opponent's are forced to fold a huge percentage of the time.

Excellent response! Basically shove wide and call tight in these things.