$10 NL HE MTT: Preflop decision with 88 for 17BB effective

[fundiver199]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

10

Game Options

1. Turbo

Currency

$

Game is a 10$ 18-man SnG on pokerstars. BTN was playing VPIP 30 / PFR 8 over 27 hands. Fold, call or jam?

PokerStars, $9.22 + $0.78 - Hold'em No Limit - 25/50 (6 ante) - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 763 (15 bb)
UTG+1 (Hero): 839 (17 bb)
MP: 3,332 (67 bb)
MP+1: 1,689 (34 bb)
CO: 1,745 (35 bb)
BU: 1,868 (37 bb)
SB: 1,063 (21 bb)
BB: 3,632 (73 bb)

Pre-Flop: (123) Hero is UTG+1 with 8♦ 8♣
1 fold, Hero raises to 100, MP calls 100, MP+1 calls 100, 1 fold, BTN 3-bets to 250, 1 fold, BB calls 200, UTG+1 (Hero)?

 

[Andyreas]

Interesting hand!

At first, I was like:
Easy jam since it seems to be quite early in the tournament. So either you double up (back to starting stack?) or you have to start from the beginning.

But then I noticed he only raised 8% of his range, which indicates a very strong hand. Of course 27 hands is not a huge sample but it may be an indicator.
In addition his small 3-bet size also looks like he begs to get called?

If I put a range of 8% against your 8s, you only have around 42% equity. Based on pot odds, this would be a decent call but most likely you'll not hit a set and the boards will have overcards, so what to do?

If I include the BB with 30% of the range who just went with it because he gets such a good price, your equity reduces to 32%.

If I rely on my BTN assumptions, I am folding here because calling makes no sense.

If you have a different assumption on BTN, I might jam here and hope for all others to fold and face a one to one with a pocket pair hopefully against over cards.

 

[fundiver199]

In addition his small 3-bet size also looks like he begs to get called?

Exactly. My first instinct here was "ok lets get it in for 17 bigs and rock´n roll". But then I went "Hey wait a minute. What kind of hand makes an undersized 3-bet in a situation, where the original raiser is very short, and two other players have already called???" So I folded, and here is the result. Which by the way I am sure people, who believe online poker is rigged, will love

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[Andyreas]

what kind of hand makes an undersized 3-bet in a situation, where the original raiser is very short, and two other players have already called???"

It went exactly as he had planned but if everyone only called, playing AA against 3 or 4 opponents often doesn't end too well either. 🙃

Which by the way I am sure people, who believe online poker is rigged, will love

So lovely. Also I love the fact that before he just called but when there's so much money in the pot, Mr. big stack bully jams because that'll surely make the initial 3-bettor fold. 🤣🤣🤣

 

[fundiver199]

So lovely. Also I love the fact that before he just called but when there's so much money in the pot, Mr. big stack bully jams because that'll surely make the initial 3-bettor fold. 🤣🤣🤣

Exactly. That backjam really represents a lot of hands, so for sure the 3-bettor will fold. Or if not then no worries, because he will just bink some massive suck-out with his junky hand

 

[ipagan]

fundiver199​

I agree here, that's seems a little bit scary from the opp. But in general in 17 bb stack I think that pre flop push would be better choice, because
1) you still have far enough fold equity (especially in tournament without bounty)
2) you will get calls from the hands weaker then yours
4) you can't call 3-bet, because you will not be able to play postflop with this hand and 11 bb stack, so you need to push on 3-bet or just fold pre-flop if you are not going to push on 3-bet. what do we want to see when we push pre-flop? we want to get call from overcards and take our 50% chance. we don't want to get more then 1 call and we don't want to get call from overpairs. when someone 3-bets your openraise, then it's good enough situation to push, because you are 1v1 and the opp will have Ax hand much more often, then overpair. People 3-bet pairs lower then JJ or even QQ much less often, so it's even more chances that opp have Ax Kx then just AA KK QQ or JJ 1010.
5) i understand your position to fold here and the thought that it seems like the opp has a very strong hand, but i guess we don't need to think that our opponent thinks like we do, because he is not. If he will think like you or me, then he would think that oh my god why this guy is just open raised with 17bb, it seems suspicious, he probably have AA KK, I will 3-bet with only AA KK too and will think hardly with AK.

I think that you will agree, that sometimes people are doing so unexpected things that brain just explodes. When the opp is open raising with 5bb in 20bb stack and then he shows A10o or calls 3bet with 59o - you had tons of such situations i'm sure. My point here, that if we play for long term then when we don't have enough information about the opp then we need to think, that he is a weak player. If we push his 3-bet and he shows AA - ok, we write a note and mark him as a potential regular, we get an information for our long-term run and this time we got 88 to AA, that happens, but again much more often it would not be AA, just any random hand. And also what can we say from his stats? 1) That he is a tight player and with the same possibility 2) that he is a weak player with such openings! So why we think that he plays like top reg, he may overplay any AJo in such situation considering that it's a very strong hand (wich I will consider to just fold on openraise from 17b stack )

Also what will you do with pocket 10 for example here? If we think that we will get calls only from the hands like AJ+ and JJ+ so tens become equal to eights, what can't be true. Again my overall point here is that pre-flop push would be better in my opinion with arguements above. What do you think?

 

[fundiver199]

Again my overall point here is that pre-flop push would be better in my opinion with arguements above. What do you think?

Normally I dont open push with more than 15BB, unless its near the bubble, where there is significant risk aversion, and this was early in the SnG. According to ICMizer 88 would be a +EV push, but if we want to open push all our hands for 17BB, we can play fewer hands, than if we min-raise. And if we want to have both a min-raising and open pushing range, then its sort of complicated to make both of them balanced. So either we need to put a lot of work into that, or we end up being unbalanced, which might or might not be a problem.

Open pushing also creates a situation, where we pick up the blinds and antes maybe 2/3 of the time, but when we get action, we are always either a 4:1 dog or flipping, and we are not getting a great risk-reward. So I do think, that min-raising has a higher long term EV, and 88 is strong enough, that we will normally be getting it in, if someone 3-bets. I made an exploitative fold here based on, what turned out to be a good read based on opponent stats and a sizing tell

 

[ipagan]

So either we need to put a lot of work into that, or we end up being unbalanced, which might or might not be a problem.

I think that it's not a problem, unless you are playing against the same opponents very often. Anyway I understand you point

 

[ipagan]

this was early in the SnG

Also do you play SnG's more then regular MTTs? It's not so common to play SnG for 10$, most people are playing regular tours. What's a reason for that?

 

[spunka]

still have MP to act, and 15 BB, so it is close, I think I go for a fold here,
If I wanted to shove due to my low stack with medium strenghts hand, I prefeer to shove when I act 1. time and in later positions.

need a better hand when other players starts to raise, we can only go up again 1 play with a hand like 88

 

[spunka]

Also do you play SnG's more then regular MTTs? It's not so common to play SnG for 10$, most people are playing regular tours. What's a reason for that?

This is a mtt SnG... there is 2 tables you start when it is full.
and 10$ is pretty normal in SnGs

 

[fundiver199]

Also do you play SnG's more then regular MTTs? It's not so common to play SnG for 10$, most people are playing regular tours. What's a reason for that?

I play SnGs, when I am unable or unwilling to commit many hours to play an MTT session. Which these days is actually most of the time. Even during weekends I prefer to be able to move on to other tasks rather than being committed for the next several hours, if I make a deep run. 10$ SnGs run pretty frequently on Stars around the clock.

 

[eetenor]

Normally I dont open push with more than 15BB, unless its near the bubble, where there is significant risk aversion, and this was early in the SnG. According to ICMizer 88 would be a +EV push, but if we want to open push all our hands for 17BB, we can play fewer hands, than if we min-raise. And if we want to have both a min-raising and open pushing range, then its sort of complicated to make both of them balanced. So either we need to put a lot of work into that, or we end up being unbalanced, which might or might not be a problem.

Open pushing also creates a situation, where we pick up the blinds and antes maybe 2/3 of the time, but when we get action, we are always either a 4:1 dog or flipping, and we are not getting a great risk-reward. So I do think, that min-raising has a higher long term EV, and 88 is strong enough, that we will normally be getting it in, if someone 3-bets. I made an exploitative fold here based on, what turned out to be a good read based on opponent stats and a sizing tell

Your points are very solid I would add as well that the Villains are not finding enough bluffs to cause us to not choose min raise/ fold in fact some V are not even raising 99 in this spot and seldom non nuts for min 3 bets multiway-so min open and over fold to tight range play is fine

 

[dallam]

I think that this is an overplay of the Aces - generated a situation against a singificant worse hand which could be on the folding side and even failed to hold - and they not intend to faced with this exact K10o so that's what this min-bet caused.
With the right way to outplay the Rockets or the BTN position itself against multiple way, this would never happen, so it not only saved your shoes by a very sophisticated fold, but though him a lesson as well.

 

[feisas7991]

no brainer jam pre.
as played obvious fold. you are doing barely ok vs his bluffs which you flip against and dead vs value. and no dead money doesnt doesnt make our jam good in this spot
actually if you plug his range as 55-JJ and AJ+ you are likely do get to jam there.
anyway your biggest punt there was not jamming pre there.
Hope this helps and Good Luck!

 

[fundiver199]

anyway your biggest punt there was not jamming pre there.

As I wrote already, open jamming for 17BB is not the optimal strategy except in special situations like a SnG bubble.

 

[feisas7991]

As I wrote already, open jamming for 17BB is not the optimal strategy except in special situations like a SnG bubble.

nah in these micros where you dont induce anything it is optimal.
doubt its full of regs who resteal wide af rather than donks who flat too much

 

[Station_Master]

Nice hand and nice fold. I agree its should be a min raise not open jam at these stack depths

 

[fundiver199]

nah in these micros where you dont induce anything it is optimal.

A 10$ SnG is actually considered low stakes not micro on PokerStars and most other sites.

doubt its full of regs who resteal wide af rather than donks who flat too much

There are many good regs in these games. Of course there are also some recreational players, otherwise there would be no point in playing.