$10 NL HE MTT: Preflop decision with AJ on final table of 18-man SnG

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fundiver199

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Game is a 10$ 18-man SnG on pokerstars. 7 players left, 4 places pay (40/30/20/10). The opponent is a SnG regular playing VPIP 25 / PFR 19 over 2k hands. What is your decision here with AJ?

PokerStars, $9.22 + $0.78 - Hold'em No Limit - 150/300 (25 ante) - 7 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 1,653 (6 bb)
MP: 2,821 (9 bb)
MP+1 (Hero): 3,174 (11 bb)
CO: 7,204 (24 bb)
BU: 2,119 (7 bb)
SB: 1,798 (6 bb)
BB: 8,231 (27 bb)

Pre-Flop: (625) Hero is MP+1 with J♣ A♠
1 fold, MP raises to 600, MP+1 (Hero)?
 
Andyreas

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My question would be why is he not jamming with just 9 BBs left.

From my point of view, there are two options:
  1. He doesn't want to risk his full stack since there are three players shorter than him and he's ITM based on chip count.
  2. He has a monster, like AA or KK and wants to be called.
Since BB is the big stack, he'll most likely defend his BB with any decent two cards, so I'm wondering what he'd do if he miss the flop.

So my intuition tells me to vote for the second option, so I fold here. 🤔

I don't play much SnGs, so maybe I'm also totally off. 😅
 
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fundiver199

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So my intuition tells me to vote for the second option, so I fold here. 🤔

I don't play much SnGs, so maybe I'm also totally off. 😅
No you are totally on the right track. My first instinct here was "perfect rejam spot with AJ". But then I noticed, he only had 9BB, and that really send alarm bells ringing in my head, since this guy is one of the good SnG regulars. Which should be apparent from his perfect LAG stats, the large sample and the fact, he is playing a 10$ game. So I did in fact fold, and here is, how it played out:

 
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fundiver199

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This hand is from a 5$ Fifty/50 SnG played in the same session. This opponent is also a regular but one of those, who are on the nitty side with VPIP 11 / PFR 10 over 900 hands. Why is this kind of player min-raising out of a less than 6BB stack? Yes you guessed it :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:

 
Andyreas

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Lovely when the traps work out.

Unfortunately in one of those bounty freerolls in ACR it didn't work for me with the rockets. 🤣

I would have jammed but decided for a regular 3-bet instead with the intention to jam the flop.

My plan worked but not the result. 🤣

 
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fundiver199

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In this hand the opponents trap got me to put in 10 chips with the worst hand. And after that he only lost another 500, when he was beat :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:

 
Andyreas

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In this hand the opponents trap got me to put in 10 chips with the worst hand. And after that he only lost another 500, when he was beat :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:

THIS is exactly why I think limping the Aces ans excessive slowplay is a horrible idea. 🤣
 
eetenor

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Game is a 10$ 18-man SnG on PokerStars. 7 players left, 4 places pay (40/30/20/10). The opponent is a SnG regular playing VPIP 25 / PFR 19 over 2k hands. What is your decision here with AJ?

PokerStars, $9.22 + $0.78 - Hold'em No Limit - 150/300 (25 ante) - 7 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 1,653 (6 bb)
MP: 2,821 (9 bb)
MP+1 (Hero): 3,174 (11 bb)
CO: 7,204 (24 bb)
BU: 2,119 (7 bb)
SB: 1,798 (6 bb)
BB: 8,231 (27 bb)

Pre-Flop: (625) Hero is MP+1 with J♣ A♠
1 fold, MP raises to 600, MP+1 (Hero)?
AJoff is a fold to a regs non shove range with top two stacks still live in the hand and 1 is the big blind-there are two 6bb stacks and a 7 so MP has max risk premium in this hand which causes shove or fold action with most of range- The value of raise fold in this spot is very low 7 left 4 paid is too soon to open fold hoping to min cash. The MP should know they are going post flop when the big B has 27 and they min open- that sucks at this stack depth
 
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fundiver199

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AJoff is a fold to a regs non shove range with top two stacks still live in the hand and 1 is the big blind-there are two 6bb stacks and a 7 so MP has max risk premium in this hand which causes shove or fold action with most of range- The value of raise fold in this spot is very low 7 left 4 paid is too soon to open fold hoping to min cash. The MP should know they are going post flop when the big B has 27 and they min open- that sucks at this stack depth
At the Nash equilibrium AJo is an essentially break-even jam in this spot. But the point is, he is not playing the Nash range. His range is AA and maybe KK. So even if I had AK, I could just fold here and punish him for turning his hand face up.
 
dallam

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I'm curious how opp would play out 99 or AJo from the exact same spot and circumstances. But personally I prefer to have several hands in my shove-range this low bb's and this early position, not min-betting them.
 
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fundiver199

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I'm curious how opp would play out 99 or AJo from the exact same spot and circumstances.
Pretty sure opponent is jamming those hands and only min-raising super strong hands like AA and KK. So its a super unbalanced play, which they hope, other players will not pick up on. And this time BB walked right into the trap helped by the fact, they flopped a draw.
 
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