$10.90 NLHE STT Turbo: Call villains raise or fold?

StealTheButton

StealTheButton

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Let me start off by saying that yes, I am a nit. Villain has been playing TAG and has been showing down good hands.

The raise into me is just over 3bb. I am getting a little better than 2 to 1 on the preflop call.
The a great reason for calling is that I have position; also the implied odds are good.

The big blind however is just about to exit. I can catch a card and have almost half of my stack in the middle when I decide that I am behind. If the bb had say 1250 in chips instead of 500 he can double up on the next all in and again be a contender to place in the money should he double up, in which place I would be leaning towards a call. However, he has been playing too tight and waiting for that miracle preflop hand which never came, which is why he is about to exit.

I feel I can happily fold my blind and lean on him for the next hand, or the villain can accomplish this for me, I just feel it is unlikely that villain is raising with K high or A6 or less. I would be folding due to ICM considerations. Thoughts??? Here it comes; let me have it......


fxJPBI9
 

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fundiver199

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I dont hate this fold to be honest. You are down to the final 3 in a 9-man, and as you say, the third guy is running on fumes, so your main priority as the mid stack should be to outlast him. The chip leader probably understand this as well, so if you call, he is not going to make it easy for you after the flop. So thinking ahead we can already predict, that we will face a lot of pressure postflop.

And how comfortable are we going to be calling a tripple barrel for all our chips with top pair meh kicker? Or with a pair of 7s, which by the river is usually going to be third pair or worse? Probably not very, so what will happen here most of the time is just, that we put in chips now and then end up folding later. If stacks were shorter, you could rejam here with any AX, but you are to deep for that. So yeah. Just let him have the blinds and antes and let the short stack have fun with the blinds next.
 
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ElmerS

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You did not consider the ICM pressure on your stack.
The second place gets 21 dollar so you don't want to play a pot against the chip leader anymore given the fact that the shortstack has just 4 blinds left and if he bust you get at least 21 dollar so A7o is a bad hand in this scenario because you can't stack off with top pair anymore.
 
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