This is a discussion on $1 NLHE STT: MW, Middle Pair on Connected Board vs small Turn Bet within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; 888Poker, $0.35 + $0.05 - Hold'em No Limit - 30/60 (5 ante) - 7 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/6atdfAO
Sanches_888 (UTG): 1,435 (24 bb)
What would you have done facing this small bet? Was the fold to tight? I know the Pot Odds are great, but multiway I was scared someone has a better draw or a better made hand. Also i have one player behind who could possibly raise, so i thougt I get out of the way as long as i can.
Pre flop is either a call or 3 bet depending on the player who is raising and who is left to act behind. I think in a normal MTT you can make a case for ripping this as well but since we are in a STT where there is basically a multiple way tie for 3rd right now I dont think I would jam and probably would just call as you did (might be a leak because 3 betting here and getting it heads up would be a nice scenario other than SPR will be low if we get called).
On the flop with the ace coming out I do think there is a good chance that you are behind as most people play Ax 7 handed however it is the min bet so you must call here. I dont like raising as raising will just make you lose more to the Ax hands and make all hands you are already beating fold out.
The turn is a great card for us so you cant be folding to that small of a bet. I now there are some spots here where we have reverse implied odds and we are probably going against a non aggressive player (since they bet so small) who has Ax but non Ax hands can bet like this as well and I like where we are sitting against non Ax hands. I dont mind raising here to try to get the SB out of there and also get the MP player to most likely check the river to us. If I was going to raise I would go small and it would only be to try to control the river action and not be for value or as a bluff as Ax isnt folding to a small raise there. Raising there though to something like 280 could wind up being a cheaper alternative to facing what most likely will be a bigger river bet by MP than the 160 difference between 280 and 120 and can be used to get to showdown cheaply. I also think calling is just fine to see if we hit our straight and also at times QJ could be good and hold up on the river. Folding there though is too tight since the price is great, we have 2nd pair and also have a draw to a straight that is a little weaker than normal due to the 2 clubs but still valuable.
I think this is too tight of a fold. Yes there's a possibility that someone has a better draw than you but I think we we win enough of the time where you can't be be folding for this price. At least call here and see that the river comes as, or you would make the raise play HPGOD was talking about above as that could end up being a cheaper alternative. Personally, I think I would keep it simple and call, and see where I'm at on the river.
I dont like calling in this situation, and I would not do it with any hand at all. The issue is, you have two players sitting behind you with perfect reshove stacks, and when you just call, its kind of like telling them "hey I am not very confident in my hand, so please move all in and force me to fold". The other thing, that might happen, is, that the blinds come along for the ride, because they are getting an awesome price defending against a min-raise.
And while you do have position postflop, this is also not a great situation with QJs, because when you flop a pair, its kind of difficult to be very confident in your hand, when 2-3 other guys saw the flop. Even if its top pair, someone could still have you outkicked, or they could have an overpair or a set.
So I will pretty much never call here, and even less when its the chip leader opening the pot. This is a tournament and there is huge value in just outlasting some of those other relatively short stacks at the table. If you pass here, and the chip leader busts one of the players behind you, you are one spot closer to the money, and the ICM value of your chips have gone up with no effort or risk what so ever.
We do need to consider though, if we can make a profitable jam here, and for this we use a program like ICMizer. Since this is a 9-man SnG, we have all relevant information, and we simply plug in the stack sizes and action. ICMizer does show QJs as a profitable jam. However we need to consider, if the other players are actually playing, like they are supposed to, because if they deviate from the correct ranges, that can have a big impact on the EV of our play.
And in this situation, where we are playing a 40c SnG and jamming on the chip leader, who probably just won a 3-way all in and might be playing the rush, it seem almost certain, that he is going to call considerably wider, that he is supposed to. And this is obviously bad, because QJs is clearly a bluffing hand. So given the stakes and given the fact, that the chip leader might be some sort of recreational goofball, who just got lucky and trippled his stack, I am not going to try to bluff him. And for that reason I would just fold.
Small blind leads out for a silly min-bet, and the preflop raiser just call. With second pair you have a bit of an interesting decision here, and I would probably lean towards a raise for value. Its essentially like, they checked to you, and in that situation there should be a reasonable chance, you are actually ahead with second pair. At most maybe someone can have a top pair with a bad kicker or KQ, which have you outkicked. But a lot of the time they have some sort of draw or a weak pair, and there is a lot of value even just in denying equity. When you just call, you are essentially checking behind, and that can be ok as well. Its never a fold for this price.
Now the donk better check, and the preflop raiser takes over the betting lead, but he also choose a very small size, which to me look pretty weak. So I still think, you have the best hand here a lot of the time. You also picked up an OESD, so unless you are against exactly KJ, which is extremely unlikely, you have a decent chunk of equity, even when you are behind.
Folding here for this price is crazy nitty, and you really need to ask yourself, why you even got involved, if you are only going to continue postflop with the stone nuts. Its predictable, that betting will take place postflop, and its also predictable, that it would be a multiway pot. So if you are not ready to contend with that, then dont cold call pre.
You have to at least call here and see a river, and probably also call on a lot of rivers, if they continue to use this small bet sizing. But as on the flop I kind of prefer a raise to deny equity, get value from worse hands and also define their ranges a bit more and increase the chance, they will check to you on the river. If someone call, you can then check back the river, unless you improve, which ensures, that you get to showdown and dont get bluffed off the best hand.
Thanks for the answers guys! Already thought about this fold was too tight, but in-game I overestimated their hands a little bit and thought some one of them is slow playing a monster or has a better draw (Probably a to nitty thinking).
Seems reasonable that I should take another line if I decide to call the hand preflop..
@fundiver999 & @300HPGOD Didn't thought about raising these spots because I thought I had a marginal made hand and didn't want to overplay it (because Jonathan little said in one video this is one of the biggest leaks of small stakes beginners). But your argumentation makes sense and I should have focused also on my gained draw! I try to adopt it.
For the one who are interested in the results:
River was a Brick (can't remember which one exactly)
They went Check-Check and showed up with 89s and KTo. So I had the best hand..
They went Check-Check and showed up with 89s and KTo. So I had the best hand..
This is exactly the kind of hands, I would expect them to have most of the time, and why I like raising up those tiny little bets even with just only second pair. I also watch a lot of Jonathan Littles contend, and its generally true, that you want to pot control with medium strong made hands. But Jonathan Little is talking about playing against good players, and good players dont bet 60 into a pot of 515. I think, there are massive bet sizing tells here, and this is why, I feel confident enough in your hand to put some actual chips in the pot. If someone comes over the top and 3-bet, you can then let it go, especially on the flop. On the turn it would be a math decision with your draw.