$1 NLHE STT: Can this be a fold?

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Scuttlebuttin

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Final table on a $1 180man SnG and I get this hand:
https://www.boomplayer.com/28760465_AF65D7509F
On flop villain checkraises me and I call (not sure if I had to shove) and can either be by value or bluffing but having 2 aces and one of clubs blocks most of his bluffs so I thought he can't have many bluffs in his range so I call, on turn he bets commiting himself so I fold (Since chips on a FT are so important), is this too tight? I searched him on sharkscope and seems like a good player, and he had been pretty tight on all the FT.
 
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kozong

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i think its still too tight of a fold, he might have 2P or sets, but he might also have just top pair there, im shoving the turn
 
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Jamuka7657

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Unless he is very tight I think we are still ahead too often to give up here. With his stack size he could definitely be getting it all-in with top pair and a decent kicker or a strong draw.
 
Luvepoker

Luvepoker

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Since he did not 3bet you preflop I doubt he has Pocket kings or queens. He could have the 2's so a set it possible. He most likely would have 3bet AK as well but he could be a bit tricky an just have top pair if he called preflop. He could have one of the flush or straight draws as well. With all the possible hands here he could have been betting I think you were a bit to tight here. Other than a set of 2's or KQs on the flop you are not in that bad of shape. His stack was also not big enough to cripple you if you lost this hand. I cant blame you for folding if he had been tight and if you think he is only betting 2 pair or better. A bit tight yes but understandable.
 
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Grigoriy Bulavkin

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I think that most likely he had on his hands a gat-shot
 
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

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Do we know how wide this player is defending their big blind preflop? Do they have K2 and Q2? Suited vs offsuit? This is pretty important, because if not, the only value hands he can have are really KQ and 22. And that's just nowhere near enough combos for me to ever want to go away.

If he's ever check raising just top pair on the flop as well, we really need to be continuing. Yeah we block the nut flush draw, but there are gutshots, open ended, and a TON of other flush draws available (especially from a big blind defense range). I think we really need to be just going with this hand - whether we do it on the flop or the turn will depend a lot on your larger strategy for defending against check raises here, but I'd generally be inclined to call flop, jam turn with this exact holding.
 
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chrism412

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I think I would have AT LEAST called the turn to see the river and re-evaluate. A deuce or five would have been wonderful, As mentioned above, KK and QQ are less likely to show up due to the preflop action.

Villain's aggression on the flop could have been many things other than KQ or 22. KQ is the only two pair hand that would make sense this late in the tourney, and after the turn brick, you're way ahead of all draws. Even JTc is only about 30% to get there.

Don't get me wrong: I've been surprised many times when somebody rolls over a trickily played hand, but I'm thinking his range had a lot of draws.
 
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