$1 NLHE MTT: SnG 45 man - call or fold?

[chakalaka]

pokerstars, $0.91 + $0.09 - Hold'em No Limit - 50/100 (10 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 1,802 (18 bb)
UTG+1: 1,059 (11 bb)
MP: 5,242 (52 bb)
MP+1 (Hero): 2,839 (28 bb)
LP: 1,297 (13 bb)
CO: 3,690 (37 bb)
BU: 3,676 (37 bb)
SB: 3,170 (32 bb)
BB: 2,803 (28 bb)

Pre-Flop: (240) Hero is MP+1 with 8♥ 8♣
3 players fold, Hero raises to 220, 4 players fold, BB 3-bets to 2,793 (all-in), (Hero)
Yo, yo!

What is your calling range vs unk? I'm giving him: 55+,ATs+,A4s-A2s,ATo+,QTs+, it's like 10%.
vs that range we have easy call here - is it correct?

 

[DaMooca]

It depends a lot on the information you have about this player or the view he has of you at the table.
But I still think it's a fold if you consider that he does it with 10% of the range.
10% corresponds to: 77 +, A9s +, KTs +, QTs +, AJo +, KQo.
And against this range 88 it has an approximate equity of 45 vs 55.
At best you will be flipping.
Folding you will have 26bb which is a comfortable stack for this type of sng.

 

[fundiver199]

I plugged your hand into ICMizer telling the program, it was a 180 man SnG, since the 45 man SnGs dont have a 100/50 blind level. I told the program, there was 100 players left and put it into MTT mode. The result, that came out, was Hero opening to this size with 27% of hands, BB jamming 18% of hands and Hero calling 9% of hands, which is 66+, AT+, KQ.

However ICMizer assume, everyone is playing a push or fold strategy except for Heros initial raise. And in reality nobody play a push or fold strategy from the big blind, when they are 28BB effective. So we need to think about, what kind of hands, BB is realistically jamming with here, and then see, which result ICMizer comes up with.

And I dont think, the average player will have a lot of bluffs in his range here. Its so profitable to just call and see a flop for 1,2BB more, and the risk/reward of jamming for 28BB is very poor. So I think, this is strongly skewed towards hands, that are to strong to just call but not comfortable 3-betting to a small size and then play a big pot out of position.

I am thinking hands like AQ-AK and 99-JJ. I plugged this into ICMizer as Villains range, and now Hero can only call profitably with TT+ and AK. Which is pretty much also, what I would do in real time against most opponents. I just dont think, we are going to be shown a small pair or a suited wheel ace here often enough to make a profitable call with a middling pair like 88. We are going to have either 20% or 55% equity the vast majority of the time, and we are getting terrible pot odds.

 

[greatgame230]

I fold I don't think the BB will shove a mediocre hand without having information I placed it with AQ at least with 28BB I fold and wait for a better hand

 

[demesquita]

I would have folded too. I also play the $1 SnGs on PS and I know the type of fields it has... that could mean a LOT of things and we better survive to find a better spot another time.

 

[fundiver199]

I also play the $1 SnGs on PS and I know the type of fields it has...

In my experience these 1$ 45-180 mans have a lot of tight and fairly robotic players in them. Which further reduce the chance, we are up against any sort of bluff heavy range here. Overfolding to 3-bets in general is certainly a reasonable strategy in these nit-filled games. It honestly does feel a bit dumb to call because "LOL game theory says, I have to" and then get shown the very obvious AK or QQ type hand time and time again

 

[chakalaka]

Thank you guys! you have right that on micros sngos there are not too much 3bet shove bluffs like A9s (expect blinds war).

@fundiver199 - how you using icm that it shows you immediatelly what kind of sng or mtt was and how many players left?

 

[ivanlt18]

Hmmm doesn't feel like a bluff shove, so I'd probably have folded as well.
Still it depends on how were that villain playing the tournament to make a better decision about that one.

At that range tho, I'd look for TT+.

 

[fundiver199]

@fundiver199 - how you using icm that it shows you immediatelly what kind of sng or mtt was and how many players left?

You need to plug that information into the program yourself. In this case it kind of had to be a 180 man, because they are the only SnGs on Stars, that have 100/50 blinds. I know this, because I play on Stars, and I have played quite a few of these in the past, latest in correlation with a challenge, which I gave up.

As for the number of players left I usually look at the average stack size on Heros table and assume, this is more or less the same as the tournament average. The Stars SnGs start with 1.500 chips, and here the average stack size was a bit less than 3.000 chips. For that reason its reasonable to assume, that a bit less than half the field must have been eliminated.

You also need to tell ICMizer how many chips are in play in the tournament or the average stack size. Which in this case is very easy, since we know, that 180 players started with 1.500 chips each, so 270.000 chips is in play.

 

[chakalaka]

You need to plug that information into the program yourself. In this case it kind of had to be a 180 man, because they are the only SnGs on Stars, that have 100/50 blinds. I know this, because I play on Stars, and I have played quite a few of these in the past, latest in correlation with a challenge, which I gave up.

As for the number of players left I usually look at the average stack size on Heros table and assume, this is more or less the same as the tournament average. The Stars SnGs start with 1.500 chips, and here the average stack size was a bit less than 3.000 chips. For that reason its reasonable to assume, that a bit less than half the field must have been eliminated.

You also need to tell ICMizer how many chips are in play in the tournament or the average stack size. Which in this case is very easy, since we know, that 180 players started with 1.500 chips each, so 270.000 chips is in play.

Thanks mate you're my boss ^^