$1 NLHE MTT: Set v Flush - Fold or All In?

P

PPT

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$1 to get a $5.50 ticket tournament. Quite early still in tournament.

JJ Pocket pre-flop I raised to 3 BB and no respect was shown, 5 callers. Flop came 3 diamonds, Jack high. I don't have any diamonds (obviously) but have a Set of Jacks with Turn and River to come. Another player shoves, so fold or call?

I figured that I have one out to get Quads and 6 outs to get Full House on Turn, plus then 1 out to get Quads and 9 to get Full House on River so actually going all in is value given pot sizing despite probably facing a made Flush.

Was this good or bad logic?

As it happens I missed but had enough chips not to be covered and have currently rebuilt my stack to just shy of 5k so fingers crossed.



888Poker, $0.91 + $0.09 - Hold'em No Limit - 50/100 (10 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 3,225 (32 bb)
UTG+1: 6,649 (66 bb)
MP (Hero): 3,750 (38 bb)
MP+1: 3,156 (32 bb)
LP: 5,023 (50 bb)
CO: 2,696 (27 bb)
BU: 6,496 (65 bb)
SB: 2,660 (27 bb)
BB: 2,699 (27 bb)

Pre-Flop: (240) Hero is MP with J J
UTG calls 100, 1 fold, Hero raises to 300, MP+1 calls 300, LP calls 300, 2 players fold, SB calls 250, BB calls 200, UTG calls 200

Flop: (1,890) 2 3 J (6 players)
SB bets 2,350 (all-in), 2 players fold, Hero raises to 3,440 (all-in), MP+1 calls 2,846 (all-in), LP folds

Turn: (9,932) A (3 players, 3 all-in)

River: (9,932) 5 (3 players, 3 all-in)

Total pot: 9,932

Showdown:
MP (Hero) shows J J (three of a kind, Jacks)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 60%, Flop: 36%, Turn: 21%, River: 0%)

SB shows A 8 (a pair of Aces)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 24%, Flop: 22%, Turn: 17%, River: 0%)

MP+1 shows 6 8 (a flush, Jack high)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 16%, Flop: 42%, Turn: 62%, River: 100%)

MP+1 wins 9,932
 
3

300HPGOD

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This spot sucks and it seems like it happens to me often as well (maybe Im tilted right now cause Im writing this after a big triple up opportunity lose AA vs KK vs AQ so I think the poker world is against me) but I say stick it in there and make them have it. Being results oriented we do see first villain sticks it in there with just the draw and not the flush and most players you would think would not jam there having the flush risking you fold so in your spot you should be calling. Sucks the player after you wound up having the flush. At 25 ish BBs effective I think you need to go with this knowing you have the re draw to a boat and made flushes shouldn't be betting like this risking a fold.

On a side note, even though I am guilty of it, your raise should be larger here over a limper when the blinds are still this small. You should be raising to 4x instead of 3x. I dont think it changes the hand at all but it is something I wanted to point out.
 
Shumkoolie

Shumkoolie

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$1 to get a $5.50 ticket tournament. Quite early still in tournament.

This is the key - still early in the tournament, so there's no ICM implications here. Folding is never an option here as you flopped a big hand, and even if you are behind, which you will be some of the time, you still have decent equity to make a Full House. You can simplify your thinking to just that, though everything else you said is correct - you essentially need the board to pair and your opponents are drawing dead.

ALSO, because it is a satellite tournament to a bigger buyin, you WANT these spots all the time, even if you're going to lose these spots some of the time - the objective is to build a BIG stack early because as the tournament gets closer to the bubble, players will play tighter because they are trying to hang on for that ticket and you want to be in a comfortable spot.

So, as played, it's fine. I agree with 300HPGOD in that your raise should be a bit larger with the open limper, and depending on your table and how they play, I'd go even a little larger than 4x pre (4.5-5x, though 4's fine too). You want to punish limpers and not let them realize their equity.

Just out of curiosity, how did this tournament end for you? Did you win a ticket to that $5.50?

On a side note, even though I am guilty of it, your raise should be larger here over a limper when the blinds are still this small. You should be raising to 4x instead of 3x. I don't think it changes the hand at all but it is something I wanted to point out.

100% agree here.
 
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royalflush122096

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That sucks that the person called with 6d8d and hit the flush but all you needed was a full house or quads. Yes I would have raised to 4x-5x so that they will not realize equity.
 
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fundiver199

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Preflop
Your isolation raise could be a bit larger, but early in a 1$ buyin satellite you would likely still end up multiway, so it would not have made any real difference to the outcome.

Flop
The SPR was just 1,2 against SB, so even if he showed you a flush, you would be priced in to call it off with a set. I also agree with others, that if SB actually flopped a flush, he would probably not just donk jam into the entire field. Its much more likely, he is doing this with the nut draw or maybe the case J, a lower set or some weird two pair. The fact someone behind woke up with a flush is not even the end of the world either. It lower your equity in the pot, but it also makes the pot bigger, so you are still making a very profitable jam. Its just a high variance spot, where all the chips have to go in, and since you also play buyins much higher than this, just put in another dollar to rebuy or play another one.
 
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