$1 NLHE MTT: Bluff shove on river correct?

[prizzy711]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 60/40/33

So I played this hand in a micro tourney. I had 2/3 pot left on river, and had 30 BB to start the hand. I like my move, even though it was incorrect here. The back door flush got there, I'm not sure how often I should have that in my range.

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/9254845

NL Holdem $150(BB)
HJ ($6674) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 1% | AGG: 9.7% | 3-Bet: 0% | hands: 102]
HERO ($4462) [VPIP: 22.8% | PFR: 13.8% | AGG: 18.8% | 3-Bet: 2.9% | Hands: 1104]
BTN ($9790) [VPIP: 34.4% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 2.8% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 32]
SB ($6600) [VPIP: 31.3% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 22.2% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 32]
BB ($7309) [VPIP: 46.9% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 22% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 32]
UTG ($4315) [VPIP: 9.4% | PFR: 3.1% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 32]
MP ($8496) [VPIP: 60% | PFR: 40% | AGG: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 10]

Dealt to Hero: T♦ J♦

UTG Folds, MP Raises To $346, HJ Folds, HERO Calls $346, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.49 effective]
Flop ($917): Q♦ 8♣ 7♦
MP Bets $458 (Rem. Stack: 7692), HERO Calls $458 (Rem. Stack: 3658)

Turn ($1833): Q♦ 8♣ 7♦ 2♣
MP Bets $916 (Rem. Stack: 6776), HERO Calls $916 (Rem. Stack: 2742)

River ($3665): Q♦ 8♣ 7♦ 2♣ K♣
MP Checks, HERO Bets $2742 (allin), MP Calls $2742 (Rem. Stack: 4034)

Spoiler

MP shows: 9♠ Q♥

MP wins: $9149

 

[Matt Vaughan]

I think the issue with hands like these is that when villain bets twice and checks this specific river, and we block most of the relevant draws he could have been giving up with, he just has a Q so often.

WE look like we have a missed draw a TON of the time, and we don't really represent anything except for KQ and maybe sometimes like KXdd for value. So I don't think we get villain's super Qx heavy range to fold very often.

In fact with such a strong combo draw I really prefer raising on an earlier street. Usually the flop, but raising turn would be fine too. Unless you are floating a LOT of backdoor hands, we don't rep a lot of flushes. Perhaps we can have them sometimes, things like JT, J9, and T9cc as well as QXcc are reasonable, but villain will sometimes hold the Qx in his hand which would prevent us from having it. And just because we can have flushes here doesn't mean villain believes that we do.

Personally I'm giving up on the river if I play flop and turn like this, but I'm either jamming turn or raising flop.

 

[prizzy711]

So is the math that the bluff needs to work about 40% of the time? I haven't looked into a hand this much before. thanks for your help.

 

[Tuan]

I think this is a wrong decision, because now a day people will check the river to get their last value since betting here make no sense because all miss draws will fold. I have to say that you fall into a simple trap. It really doesn't matter how often you hit your back door flush here, because once aggression check on this river, he or she will call your bet no matter what; if a diamond came, it would be a different story. As a bettor I would have 2 plan: Situation 1: on river, check/call if river is not a diamond. Situation 2: on river, check/fold if the river is a diamond or 1 line to a straight and depend on the bet sizing.

 

[Meepomancer1122]

Since he opened 6/10 hands, I like a 3-bet pre flop. Other than that, I think you should have raised flop or turn to try to make him fold. Maybe you could have raised flop and shoved turn, or raised turn shoved river (making for a better representation of a backdoor flush draw)

 

[NHequalsFU]

Raise the flop with intentions of getting it all in there.

Shove the turn.

The river is such a weird spot which is why I don't want to be in it with the combo draws we had. I don't think many hands are going to fold to that river shove considering the action and remaining stack of the villain. People at this level make too many calls so I don't see them folding enough for the jam to work at the micro level.

 

[prizzy711]

I think this is a wrong decision, because now a day people will check the river to get their last value since betting here make no sense because all miss draws will fold. I have to say that you fall into a simple trap. It really doesn't matter how often you hit your back door flush here, because once aggression check on this river, he or she will call your bet no matter what; if a diamond came, it would be a different story. As a bettor I would have 2 plan: Situation 1: on river, check/call if river is not a diamond. Situation 2: on river, check/fold if the river is a diamond or 1 line to a straight and depend on the bet sizing.

that makes a ton of sense. I should have just checked

 

[puzzlefish]

Look at the stats of your villain. You have your HUD for a reason. Does this look like a player that will fold to your bluffs? This is a $1 tourney with a super loose agro villain who is looking to call you down with second highest pair. Pick your battles. You will have much better spots to bluff the right type of villain.

 

[Ryan Laplante]

Raise flop.

As played I like the river bluff

 

[omnom8]

you blocks none and dont represent none.

its insta call for Q and i will thinking about call with 8x.

better jam will be on turn with such line but i like check fold on river.

 

[liuouhgkres]

Awful bluff because of card removal. You have two diamonds, meaning villains is less likely to have missed flush draw. You have J and T, meaning villain is less likely to have missed straight draw. If you wanted to shove you could shove on the turn though.

 

[prizzy711]

Awful bluff because of card removal. You have two diamonds, meaning villains is less likely to have missed flush draw. You have J and T, meaning villain is less likely to have missed straight draw. If you wanted to shove you could shove on the turn though.

I didn't take card removal into account. I'm learning. TX