$1 NLHE MTT: 88 on 99Xr, call a 2-bet shove OTF?

[doomasiggy]

Stats over 20 hands: 22/6/0

PokerStars - $0.91+$0.09|100/200 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 5,510.00
SB: 5,453.00
BB: 5,279.00
UTG: 3,605.00
Hero (MP): 3,977.00
CO: 4,687.00

BTN posts ante 25.00, SB posts ante 25.00, BB posts ante 25.00, UTG posts ante 25.00, Hero posts ante 25.00, CO posts ante 25.00, SB posts SB 100.00, BB posts BB 200.00

Pre Flop: (pot: 450.00) Hero has 8:spade: 8:club:

fold, Hero raises to 400.00, CO calls 400.00, fold, fold, BB calls 200.00

Flop: (1450.00, 3 players) 9:diamond: 2:spade: 9:heart:
BB checks, Hero bets 750.00, CO raises to 4,262.00 and is all-in, fold, Hero

 

[duggs]

read dependent, if he is at all spewy then we can call,
readless i sigh fold.

its worth noting that his airball hands he does this with still have equity v us and his value hands all have us crushed.

 

[Sori]

This is obviously villian dependent, but I feel like most people wouldn't be shoving if they have the 9 and would prefer to call and let us barrel again on the turn. No? I could see them having a low/mid pocket pair here and not wanting to see a scare card on the turn.

 

[WiZZiM]

i'd probably have to go with this hand tbh i dont think i can fold. Reads do help, but this is a friggin $1 rebuy. People love to do this with pretty much any pair that's lower than us (a few higher of course as well). Random spazzy overcards, and the unlikely 9 that i wouldn't worry about too much. Not sure if it's correct or not, but i'd call without investigating it further.

I think duggs is right in saying his airball hands have equity, but we also crush a heap of smaller pairs which can pretty easily shove on us here, i think that swings it back in our favour a bit more duggs?

 

[duggs]

yea i see your point wiz but i dont think 33-77 jams with his passive stats alot of the time, when we have it beat i think its broadway cards that missed or a slow played AK/AQ that he doesnt like folding with. there is also a good chance a these stakes that he still has AA-1010 in his range as retarded as that sounds.
I also dont think we can rule out a 9 since he will be flatting anything at all connected and wets his pants when he flops trips and wonders why noone ever calls.
I think 33-77 are more likely to just station off, but yea if we include them i can find a call.

 

[WiZZiM]

didnt even see the passive stats, it's only over 20 hands, we still have to think he's somewhat spazzy it is a $1 game. However i agree it might be less likely since his stats might indicate him being passive in some way.

I'm not discounting a 9, it just happens so infrequently i really don't care about it too much.

i think you might be right about this one, i personally would probably still call because i cannot put much thought into those stats of his. so i'd just assume a normal bad $1 MTT player would shove here with those small pairs and i'd just go with it, at the end of the day we only have 20 BB, and we have already invested a decent chunk of that into the raise/c-bet, i don't really like folding once i've done that.