$$1 NL HE MTT:

[duqnuk]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

$1

Currency

$

Game format: $1 - Sit'n'Go

Do you think the Vilan was beating my hand?

I was holding pocket 9 in UTG+1 and raised 3bb.
Everyone folds, Big Blind (vilan) calls.
Pot was 8.5bb
Flop: 6d Ad 7h

Hero bets half pot, Vilan calls
Pot was around 16bb
Turn: 6d Ad 7h 3h

Hero checks, Villan checks.

River: 6d Ad 7h 3h 3c

Villan bets half pot, Hero folds.

Do you think villan was holding weak Aces and was beating me or diamonds flush draws?

What mistakes I made during this hand?
Any insight it's welcome!

 

[bananovsky1999]

I think his range when he calls pre-flop and flop but folds river rarely has weak aces.

If he had an weak ace (say A4 for example) and thought that you had a higher ace, he would expect you to bet turn. When you don't bet turn (which isn't the most threatning card) but bet river, he probably excludes all your larger Aces

I would say he could've had missed flushes, smaller pairs and maybe some 7x and 6x hands

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
You dont tell us the stack sizes, but 3BB is a large raise size in a SnG, unless it was the very first blind level.

Flop and turn
You need to check back either flop or turn for pot control, so this line is completely fine.

River
Part of the whole idea of pot controlling is to have hands in our range, that can bluff catch on the river. In this case you also got a pretty ideal board runout with only the 54 draw completing and no more overcards to your pair. With that being said 88 and 99 are some of the worst bluff catchers, because they block the busted 98 draw, of which he likely have all combos. You did not mention your suits, but if you also had a diamond, its even worse, because then you also block the busted flushdraw.

On the other side I dont think, its completely out of the question, he might bet an in between hand like 88 or 7X, because he think, he has the best hand, after you check back the turn. So if you fold here, there is some risk of falling victim to an accidental value bluff. And for that reason I prefer to call, especially in a 1$ SnG, where there is likely to be a lot of button clicking.

Finally you are getting 3:1 and only need to be good 25% of the time. A lot of people feel "stupid", if they call here and get shown some hand like A5, that beat them. But thats not a rational feeling, since the goal when calling on the river is not to win the hand 100% of the time. The goal is only to win it often enough. And in this situation I think, you win more than 25% of the time. But not that much more, so its not like, folding here is a massive leak. The most important thing to take away is, what goes into the decision making.

 

[fundiver199]

Just a few additional words about game theory, and how we should analyse a bluff catching situation on the river from that perspective. When Villain bet half pot, Hero need to be good 25% of the time to call. Villain on the other hand need Hero to fold 33% of the time for a bluff to show a profit. This mean, that if Villain is playing a perfectly balanced strategy, then he will bet with a mix of 3 value hands for each bluff. Hero on the other hand should call with 67% of the hands, that arrive on the river this way.

If they both do this, they are both playing GTO or Game Theory Optimal. For hero to call more often, he will need some kind of read, that Villain is bluffing to much. Either an individual read or a population read. And for hero to call less often, he need the opposite read. So assuming, that hero has no read, the default strategy here is to call 67% of the time.

Its pretty common to C-bet a somewhat dry A high flop like this wide. And since 3h was not the most ideal barrel card, Hero likely check back turn with a lot of hands, that are now basically ready to give up, unless they improve or get a free showdown. Hands like QJ or JT with no flushdraw and so on and so forth. So depending how Hero structure his game, its kind of difficult to imagine, that basically any made hand is not in the top 67% of hands, he can have. Especially since he most likely bet the turn with all his strongest hands.

So folding 99 here is, what is known as an exploitable play. It will in theory allow the opponent to call hero on the flop and then bet the river with random bluffs, when Hero check back the turn. An opponent in a 1$ SnG wont nessesarely do that. But it is important to understand, that folding here is relying on some kind of read, that either the specific opponent or the population is underbluffing in this situation. And as I said already, that they are also not betting a worse hand thinking, that its for value.