This is a discussion on $1.65 NLHE MTT: Short Hand Question within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; I'm curious what all your thoughts might be regarding how this hand played out, especially as the villain told me what hand he was holding
I'm curious what all your thoughts might be regarding how this hand played out, especially as the villain told me what hand he was holding after the hand (assuming he wasn't lying).
After the hand, I made a comment that his 4x check-raise on the flop didn't make any sense to me, resulting in my folding top pair, second kicker (I didn't tell him what I had folded). It was a pretty innocuous comment, but he took it very defensively and started flipping out on me, yelling about how he had aces (apparently) and I was criticizing his bet. I do think a check-raise is good there with aces, but the large sizing (to me) basically said that he was playing an over-pair or a set, which folded out my top pair, second kicker, which normally would be good to call a smaller re-raise, to call a smaller bet on the turn, or to bet on a checked turn. So it seemed to me that he was folding out a lot of hands that AA beats with that sizing just to fold out flush and straight draws. Furthermore, I feel like he only gets called there with very strong straight and flush draws or an already-made set anyways, all of which are a decent chance to lose against, although he blocks the nuts straight pretty well with two aces.
Anyways, in an effort to learn from the hand, I'd like hear what anyone has to think about the way the hand was played. Thanks in advance for any input!
I think, bet-folding top pair second kicker on the flop is to weak-tight. In higher buyin tournaments against better opponents a check-raise on this kind of flop would be a draw a huge percentage of the time. And for that reason you would have to peel at least one and see, how the board runs out, and what the opponent does later. Otherwise you will simply get run over by people raising every single draw in existense.
In a 1,65$ tournament there might be less check-raising of draws on the flop, but on the other hand you will see more people check-raise top pair, because they dont know how to play it. So you can easily become the victim of an accidental value bluff here. Like he have QJ or J9 and raise, because he think, he has the best hand, but he actually make you fold a better hand.
Also while his raise was large, I think, you make the typical mistake of not including his call of you bet, when you calculate the pot size. After you bet, and he called your bet, the pot was 4.500 + 2 x 2.250 = 9.000, and he made it 6.880 more to go. This is 76% pot, which is a large bet size for tournaments, but its not an overbet, and its not completely unusual, that people make such large bets on wet boards.
I think, bet-folding top pair second kicker on the flop is to weak-tight.
This is 76% pot, which is a large bet size for tournaments, but its not an overbet, and its not completely unusual, that people make such large bets on wet boards.
I agree it was too tight. It's just that, as you said, in these level of buy-ins, I very rarely run into that particular play, so I didn't really know what to make of it.
Also, if he did have AA, is that a good bet? It seemed too large to me in the sense that he's pricing out all the hands that he beats but failing to price out the hands that beat him (obviously, as those would be made sets and strong draws). Plus, if he had the Ah, then he's blocking the nut flush and could easily bluff it if another heart came (on the other hand, perhaps he didn't have the Ah, making him size up his bet more).
If he had AA, he should have 3-bet preflop. But as played I like his decision to play it very fast postflop on this wet and dynamic board. His check-raise sets it up, so he can jam turn on a clean turn card. I dont agree, that he price out all worse hands. You made a mistake by folding KJ, and the vast majority of players in a 1,65$ MTT does the exact opposite. They get to sticky and call to much with all sorts of junk hands. So unless he had a read, that you were the nit of the table, his postflop line is completely fine
Also while he obviously wanted a hand like KJ to call him, you did have 21% equity, so its not the end of the world for him, that you folded. He achieved some protection for his hand and took away reverse implied odds on a K or J turn. This is a concept, which I think, many poker players dont get. They think, that when we bet with a strong hand, its only to get called by worse. But denying equity is a part of any bet, except when we bet on the river or with an absolute unbeatable hand like quads or a straight flush. AA on JT6 2-tone is far from an unbeatable hand, and therefore denying equity is very important.
I'm not folding vs the BB range here on this flop. The K of hearts is too relevant for us here and there are LOTS of good turn cards for us. Any heart, Q, 9, K, J - villan can also x/r their Jx for protection knowing we are cbetting a ton vs their range. We beat QJ and under, AJ shouldve 3bet us preflop - the only combo im remotely worried about is JT and us having a J in our hand blocks that combo - weare ahead of flush draws, ahead of KQ and doing decently well even when we are up against T6 -- so im just not inclined to fold here on the flop. Im peeling the turn for sure and evaluating from there.
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Not many players x/r flush draws at micro stakes levels. He should have at least a str8 and flush draw, or an overpair, or even a set. Your Jh blocks top pair flush draws, which eliminates the most likely overvalued x/r.
Most players at this level either play straight forward, or they randomly bluff for very little reason. Unless I thought this guy was very aggressive, I would have folded also. It is just too easy to go broke to a set here.