$1.50 NLHE STT Turbo: This one is bugging me...

[TheKAAHK]

pokerstars - $1.32+$0.18|100/200 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com

theKAAHK (BB): 6,440.00
Villian (BTN): 5,890.00
SS(SB): 1,170.00

theKAAHK posts ante 25.00,
Villian posts ante 25.00
SS posts ante 25.00
SS posts SB 100.00
theKAAHK posts BB 200.00

Pre Flop: (375.00) theKAAHK has Td Th

MazinhoRufin raises to 5,865.00 and is all-in, fold, fold

MazinhoRufin wins 575.00

---------------------------------------------------------


As the title suggests, this one bugged me. I'm kicking myself for folding in this spot. I know that if I were to call and lose that I would be screwed, but
I had such a strong gut feeling he was shoving no better than a mid Ace or a small pp.

I know these decisions should not be based on "gut feelings", but the previous SNG I played, he was also in. I took him out on the bubble when he pulled a move identical to this. He shoved 25 or so BBs into my AA and showed 66. He was second in chips behind me and the SS had >8bb.

That hand was the one and only time he actually shoved preflop. He was raising 3x or folding everything else. A couple of times we tangled, and I check-raised him both times and took it down. I had been playing very aggressive post flop and I felt i that in that hand, he simply didn't want to risk getting outplayed if he missed. But then again, there was no real reason to shove in that spot and perhaps he did have a monster and wanted my to make a cocky call against him.

Anyways, I know there are better spots, especially with my stack compared to the SS, but I still agonized over this. 10 10 stacked up pretty well against what I figured his shoving range in that spot to be.

But then again I could be completely wrong about this and shouldn't give this scenario a second thought.

Your thoughts?

P.S. I did go on to win this one (hu against the Villian) so this is not me being results oriented.

 

[Logan2]

Long time i don´t play STT (probably since April when was playing on Fulltilt), but i think is a fold just by ICM. We are already in First and blinds still low, if we lose will be cripple, if we win still are in first, if we fold still on first and Villain will get only 1.5bbs.

Probably need to be on the table to decide to call, or have some stats, but 30bbs when have a shorty because a gutt felling, i don´t know.

Like i say, long time not play this games so better wait to Wizzim or other better player comment.

 

[WiZZiM]

If you have any sort of skill edge at all then fold. There is still a "mini-bubble" in play 3 handed, so ICM is still a factor, with the short stacker in play, it would be a questionable call most of the time.

Unless you have some read that this guy will do this with a range you crush (a lot of the time players will jam small pairs in this spot as they don't want to fold and are unsure of how to play it. Others will shove lots of broadway etc) then we're probably going to be flipping too often here vs random broadway cards. Flipping here really stinks if we do have a skill edge as we can just outplay them over the longer run, rather than risking it all in one spot. If you did feel like his range is comprised of a lot of Ax hands and smaller pairs, then i don't mind calling as we crush his range a lot more on average then.

In general i'm usually folding here, unless i had a decent read that this player was likely shoving a lot of smaller pairs in this spot. Others may argue that now we're ITM we should just go for broke, and that's not a bad idea, it kind of depends on your overall game plan. I prefer getting more second places than thirds, thus my distribution looks more like 1st<2nd<3rd but others have a differant idea with 1st<3rd<2nd distribution. Both will work, but i feel like variance is a little lower with the former.

So if the latter distribution fits more into your overall game plan, then this is one you will probably just call off, figuring the risk is huge, but also the reward as we're basically now heads up and likely going to win. This fits better into the gameplan of newer players as you will be accepting a lot more flips and big all in pots.

If the former distribution fits more into your game plan(it does to mine) then i'd usually opt for a cautious route and fold. However you will have to do some other things to make up for lost equity in other areas, like outplaying players, and raising more in smaller pots.

 

[RamdeeBen]

Yeah I can see the frustration here.

You can deffo Write off a monster(A,10+ JJ+ or wanting maximum value so I assume he would 2.5x them or min raise) hand for him and most likely he is shoving a weaker pair than yours or like you say, a very weak Ace, but because of such a short stack it forces you to make a fold here. purely based on ICM.

Kind of tough though to fold and annoying but even if the short stack has more chips, like say 3k, I'd be inclined to call it off here but because he is so so short, it's just bad to call.

 

[BlueNowhere]

Give him a range of 22-99, A2-AQ KQ KJ, we have about 69% equity over his range.

So 69% of the time we cripple him and probably take down the tourney. 31% of the time we bust.

Lets presume we take out the SS an equal amount. he then has 7000 you have 6,500.

Lets say if you win this all in you then don't win the tourney 5% of the time (0.64*5.95) + (0.31* 2.37) + (0.05*3.56) = 4.72 $ev if we call his all in and I've got his range about right. L

when the SS goes out to one of us we now have 6500 of the 13,500 chips in play. 5.95+3.56 = 9.51. and 6500/13500 = 0.48. 0.48*9.51 = 4.56
4.56$ev.

From those calculations presuming we don't have a skill edge when we go HU I get the best play is to call. Has anyone used an actual calculator on the internet to get it as a fold? I call fwiw.

 

[WiZZiM]

Give him a range of 22-99, A2-AQ KQ KJ, we have about 69% equity over his range.

So 69% of the time we cripple him and probably take down the tourney. 31% of the time we bust.

Lets presume we take out the SS an equal amount. he then has 7000 you have 6,500.

Lets say if you win this all in you then don't win the tourney 5% of the time (0.64*5.95) + (0.31* 2.37) + (0.05*3.56) = 4.72 $ev if we call his all in and I've got his range about right. L

when the SS goes out to one of us we now have 6500 of the 13,500 chips in play. 5.95+3.56 = 9.51. and 6500/13500 = 0.48. 0.48*9.51 = 4.56
4.56$ev.

From those calculations presuming we don't have a skill edge when we go HU I get the best play is to call. Has anyone used an actual calculator on the internet to get it as a fold? I call fwiw.

Yeah i think you might be right, it's close either way, even if we lose, we can still battle and get second a decent % of the time anyways(though we would likely have to shove into the big stack and go to showdown very next hand). Since villians range is so likely to be stuff he doesn't want calls with (small pairs and weak broadways) i think we probably have enough equity to call with, but it's just about the bottom of my range for calling.

This is definitely a spot i'd fold AK/AQ with though.

 

[BlueNowhere]

Yeah i think you might be right, it's close either way, even if we lose, we can still battle and get second a decent % of the time anyways(though we would likely have to shove into the big stack and go to showdown very next hand). Since villians range is so likely to be stuff he doesn't want calls with (small pairs and weak broadways) i think we probably have enough equity to call with, but it's just about the bottom of my range for calling.

This is definitely a spot i'd fold AK/AQ with though.

Just realised I read it as hero is in 2nd instead of 1st, I'll have to redo calculations but I'm pretty sure that pushes us even more into this being a clear call.

 

[BlueNowhere]

New figures now I'm not reading it wrong. We'll give him same range.

call and lose = 0.31. We still have half of short stack so just looking at a quick calculation we come 3rd 64.15% of the time. 2nd 31.6% of the time and 1st 4.3% of the time. so now if we lose we get (5.95*0.043)+(0.316*3.56)+ (2.37*0.6415) = 2.837$ev. If we win we get 1st 92.26% of the time and 2nd 7.74% of the time. So (0.9226*5.95) + (0.0774*3.56) = 5.77. So now we have ( (5.77*0.69) + (2.837*0.31) = so 4.86$ev.

Now if we fold (assuming nobody has an edge) 1st 46.03% 2nd 43.43% and 3rd 10.53% of the time.

so now we have (5.95*0.4603)+(3.56*0.4343)+(2.37*0.1053) = 4.53$ev.

So folding means we sacrifice a 0.33$ev. Also bear in mind I've given him a pretty good range, no two undercards and I've put AQ and AJ into his shoving range and not put K10 or Q10. If we changed his ranger to wider a fold becomes even more horrible.

Basically folding is pretty much horrible and the worst possible play and even without looking at the numbers I'd snap call every time

 

[NEWTDOG101]

Your % numbers look good to make the call but what would Villian shove into you with here? You both have prior and present tourney reads on each other, I'm sure he's not shoveing lite here. Noway I make this call with SS sitting with 5/bb, just too big of risk when you can just take out the SS then make the flip. Good fold in this spot imo.

 

[BlueNowhere]

Your % numbers look good to make the call but what would Villian shove into you with here? You both have prior and present tourney reads on each other, I'm sure he's not shoveing lite here. Noway I make this call with SS sitting with 5/bb, just too big of risk when you can just take out the SS then make the flip. Good fold in this spot imo.

Well we already know villian shove underpairs and he isn't shoving hands tha tplay well postflop. JJ+ raises for value as does AK. We're a mile ahead and I hate folding.

 

[TheKAAHK]

If you have any sort of skill edge at all then fold. There is still a "mini-bubble" in play 3 handed, so ICM is still a factor, with the short stacker in play, it would be a questionable call most of the time.

<This was my first thought, and i defo felt I had a skill edge over villian here>

Unless you have some read that this guy will do this with a range you crush (a lot of the time players will jam small pairs in this spot as they don't want to fold and are unsure of how to play it. Others will shove lots of broadway etc) then we're probably going to be flipping too often here vs random broadway cards. Flipping here really stinks if we do have a skill edge as we can just outplay them over the longer run, rather than risking it all in one spot. If you did feel like his range is comprised of a lot of Ax hands and smaller pairs, then i don't mind calling as we crush his range a lot more on average then.

In general i'm usually folding here, unless i had a decent read that this player was likely shoving a lot of smaller pairs in this spot. Others may argue that now we're ITM we should just go for broke, and that's not a bad idea, it kind of depends on your overall game plan. I prefer getting more second places than thirds, thus my distribution looks more like 1st<2nd<3rd but others have a differant idea with 1st<3rd<2nd distribution. Both will work, but i feel like variance is a little lower with the former.

So if the latter distribution fits more into your overall game plan, then this is one you will probably just call off, figuring the risk is huge, but also the reward as we're basically now heads up and likely going to win. This fits better into the gameplan of newer players as you will be accepting a lot more flips and big all in pots.

If the former distribution fits more into your game plan(it does to mine) then i'd usually opt for a cautious route and fold. However you will have to do some other things to make up for lost equity in other areas, like outplaying players, and raising more in smaller pots.

Yeah I can see the frustration here.

You can deffo Write off a monster(A,10+ JJ+ or wanting maximum value so I assume he would 2.5x them or min raise) hand for him and most likely he is shoving a weaker pair than yours or like you say, a very weak Ace, but because of such a short stack it forces you to make a fold here. purely based on ICM.

Kind of tough though to fold and annoying but even if the short stack has more chips, like say 3k, I'd be inclined to call it off here but because he is so so short, it's just bad to call.

New figures now I'm not reading it wrong. We'll give him same range.

call and lose = 0.31. We still have half of short stack so just looking at a quick calculation we come 3rd 64.15% of the time. 2nd 31.6% of the time and 1st 4.3% of the time. so now if we lose we get (5.95*0.043)+(0.316*3.56)+ (2.37*0.6415) = 2.837$ev. If we win we get 1st 92.26% of the time and 2nd 7.74% of the time. So (0.9226*5.95) + (0.0774*3.56) = 5.77. So now we have ( (5.77*0.69) + (2.837*0.31) = so 4.86$ev.

Now if we fold (assuming nobody has an edge) 1st 46.03% 2nd 43.43% and 3rd 10.53% of the time.

so now we have (5.95*0.4603)+(3.56*0.4343)+(2.37*0.1053) = 4.53$ev.

So folding means we sacrifice a 0.33$ev. Also bear in mind I've given him a pretty good range, no two undercards and I've put AQ and AJ into his shoving range and not put K10 or Q10. If we changed his ranger to wider a fold becomes even more horrible.

Basically folding is pretty much horrible and the worst possible play and even without looking at the numbers I'd snap call every time

See, I never did any in depth calcs on this (obv), but a quick mental evaluation got me leaning towards the call as, like I said, I was ahead of his range and hands like JJ+ are just putting in a standard, not open shoving.

Well we already know villian shove underpairs and he isn't shoving hands tha tplay well postflop. JJ+ raises for value as does AK. We're a mile ahead and I hate folding.

In the end, I think NEWTDOG said it best when he spoke of the fact that both the Villain and I had prior reads on eachother. This player wasn't great, but he was by no means an idiot. And this is part of what brought me to a fold. With the way he was playing (he was a 15/17 over 97 hands on him), and the way he was playing against me, I could really see him showing up with KK+ here, with the intent on getting me to make a call like this. Most times in this situation I will call every time and either be satisfied with being itm, or guarantee the win right there. But something just didn't feel right in this spot. Add the fact that I had them both outmatched in skill and I felt I could fold, take out the shorty and go hu with the edge. And that is what ended up happening.

Thanks a lot for the input guys! And I appreciate you laying out the calculations for this scenario Blue, I think they might come in handy again for this evening's session.

 

[BlueNowhere]

Those stats mean nothing, his play is going to change massively now we are 3 handed. I go from tight to the loosest on the table if I'm in his position.

Unless he is an awful player who has shoved on you several times in a row he just never shoves KK in this spot. I'd say it's an easy a call as you see and ICM factors say we call here, not fold. You siad he is by no means an idiot, take JJ+ out of his range then. Also people tend to massively oversetimate their edge. I think you need about 60% winner heads up when you're on average going into heads up with 48% equity. do you really believe that you can make a 24% swing in equity? so form 48-52 to 60-40. People always massively overestimate their edge. Phil Ivey can fold here no problem, I don't think you can.

 

[TheKAAHK]

Those stats mean nothing, his play is going to change massively now we are 3 handed. I go from tight to the loosest on the table if I'm in his position.

Unless he is an awful player who has shoved on you several times in a row he just never shoves KK in this spot. I'd say it's an easy a call as you see and ICM factors say we call here, not fold. You siad he is by no means an idiot, take JJ+ out of his range then. Also people tend to massively oversetimate their edge. I think you need about 60% winner heads up when you're on average going into heads up with 48% equity. do you really believe that you can make a 24% swing in equity? so form 48-52 to 60-40. People always massively overestimate their edge. Phil Ivey can fold here no problem, I don't think you can.

This is true. Will keep this in mind next time.

 

[baudib1]

I'd call here. It's important to remember that ICM calcs probably underestimate the value of having like 90% of the chips in play while 3-handed.

 

[Poker Orifice]

if the short stack has more chips, like say 3k, I'd be inclined to call it off here but because he is so so short, it's just bad to call.

If SS has 3k (15bb) do ya think villain is playing same?

Blinds 100/200... I probably find a FOLD here in this spot.

 

[dejanbgd]

I am on fold here because short stack is only 6 BB and still time to get their chips, yes you are favorite in that hand but no reason for gambling and coin flip in that situaton. I think the he wanted short stack one on one.

 

[Poker Orifice]

. I think the he wanted short stack one on one.

Really? Cuz I'm thinking he was shoving knowing it was unlikely that BB could/would ever call in that spot w/o a Monster.

 

[BlueNowhere]

I am on fold here because short stack is only 6 BB and still time to get their chips, yes you are favorite in that hand but no reason for gambling and coin flip in that situaton. I think the he wanted short stack one on one.

So you turn down a 69% favourite 'flip' to have well over 90% equity in tourney? It's as clear a call as you see and I'm staggered people are still advocating folding. If payouout was $65,000, $45,000 $15,000 folding is just as bad but I could understand it as you've nearly locked up a significant amount more and that sum would be probably be signicant to most people. We aren't going to be that bothered if we come 3rd, 2nd or 1st as long as we make the correct decision. It's not even close in this case.

 

[WiZZiM]

Well not 90% equity since it's a 50% maximum, but like 48% yeah .

Don't forget the flipside of the equation though, that losing this we do lose a ton of equity and we're basically always going to showdown the next hand, but since we have already cashed it doesn't matter as much. I think i was overestimating ICM when i glanced at this thread first.

I'm not still advocating folding here btw, you have proven well that calling is going to be the best play. But what is our calling range here, 10's would nearly be the bottom for me, perhaps 99 and maybe Ak would be as wide as i'd get here. I'd be interested to know how wide you would call in this case?

 

[BlueNowhere]

Well not 90% equity since it's a 50% maximum, but like 48% yeah .

Don't forget the flipside of the equation though, that losing this we do lose a ton of equity and we're basically always going to showdown the next hand, but since we have already cashed it doesn't matter as much. I think i was overestimating ICM when i glanced at this thread first.

I'm not still advocating folding here btw, you have proven well that calling is going to be the best play. But what is our calling range here, 10's would nearly be the bottom for me, perhaps 99 and maybe Ak would be as wide as i'd get here. I'd be interested to know how wide you would call in this case?

No we have over 90% equity (in terms of winnning tournament, should have made that more clear that was what I meant), I wasn't reffering to how much of the prize pool we win which obv can't exceed 50%.

Yes if we lose we lose a ton of equity, Also if we have aces and we lose we lose a ton of equity, we'd still snap call though. We're not bothered about equity we may lose as long as we make a +$ev decision.

Tough one because given we've seen him shove low PP AK is worse off then TT. I snap call 9's and 8 is probably close, I'll do the calculations later but think we have to put 99 and maybe TT in his range and without doing the calculations I think it's -$ev. Plus at this level depending on your HU ability I'm inclined to fold and beat them HU. If you think they're capable of shoving weaker Aces and KQ-K9 or something like that then Ak is easy call. If you trhink range is heavily weighted towards pocket pairs its a fold. Also less Combos of Ax and Kx he can have due to us having one of each so his range will be weighted even more towards PP