$1.50 NLHE STT: Interested in your thoughts here

[tzuriel]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

Still pretty early in this SnG with 8 players left and I am the chip leader with nearly twice the stack of most of the other players. J8o seems like a pretty standard BB defend and I flop TP but there are lots of diamonds and I have exactly zero and no Kicker, really. Checking seems like the prudent choice.

2h changes nothing but V bets about 75% pot. If he had the flush I would have expected a smaller bet or even a X to induce a bet from me so he could XR. I call. V is a 28 6 after 124 hands and limps/calls a lot. His bet here seemed like protection for that 9.

Another 9 on the river is pretty bad for me so I XF to his less than 50% bet which looks like value. I still have plenty of chips to fold here and find better spots. I think it was the right decision. What do you folks think?



NL Holdem $1.50+$0.15 (50.00BB)
SB ($2144)
HERO ($3861)
UTG ($2167)
EP ($1967)
MP ($2175)
HJ ($1473)
CO ($2305)
Dealt to Hero: J♥ 8♣

UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $130, BTN Calls $125, SB Folds, HERO Calls $75

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.04 effective]
Flop ($440): J♦ 3♦ 9♦
HERO Checks, CO Checks, BTN Checks

Turn ($440): J♦ 3♦ 9♦ 2♥
HERO Checks, CO Bets $330 (Rem. Stack: $1845), BTN Folds, HERO Calls $330 (Rem. Stack: $3401)

River ($1100): J♦ 3♦ 9♦ 2♥ 9♥
HERO Checks, CO Bets $475 (Rem. Stack: $1370), HERO Folds

Spoiler

CO wins: $1100

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
I am not sure, J8o is a "standard" defend against a 2,6BB open and a call. And when the player opening is only raising preflop with 6% of hands over a large sample, then I would just snap fold this and not even worry about it.

Flop
Check is very standard here, dont see any reason to lead.

Turn
When the flop check through, we could actually consider leading here to charge random draws like 44 with 4 of diamonds. Its not the clearest situation in the world though, because on a monotone board they could certainly check the flop with made hands, that are stronger than yours, because they are also scared of the flush.

So overall checking here seems like a prudent play. We are basically hoping, that it checks through again, and that we see another safe card on the river. Unfortunately CO now goes for a delayed continuation bet, and he choose a very large sizing of 75% pot. Folding top pair to a single bet seems really tight, but I actually think, this is a spot, where it should be considered. We have a lot of things going against us here:

1) Its a multiway pot
2) Its a monotone board, and we dont have a flushdraw
3) We have kicker issues, so we lose to top pair
4) Its a very large sizing
5) If we call, we might face another large bet on the river
6) Even if he is bluffing, he might have as many as 15 outs with two overs and a flushdraw
7) We are playing against someone, who only raise 6% of hands

River
You say, that this was a bad card for you, and I disagree with that. He is not taking this sizing on the turn with second pair and then going smaller on the river, when he improve to trips. Also if he does a not of limping preflop, as his HUD-stats indicate, why would he suddenly raise with a 9 in his hand? Its way more likely, 9X would get limped by someone like this.

So I am not worried about trips, but I think, you have been behind all the time, most likely to an overpair. So even though you only need to be good around 23% of the time, I think, its ok to let it go especially against a semi-loose passive player like this. I just think, you could have saved a lot of chips by folding earlier, and that this is going to be better in the long run.

 

[tzuriel]

All valid points. I will take a look at my defending range from the BB. Thanks for taking the time!

 

[fundiver199]

All valid points. I will take a look at my defending range from the BB. Thanks for taking the time!

Also take a look at, how you use HUD-data. Sometimes people overinterpret them and overadjust. But here they were basically ignored, even though you were playing with someone, who is only raising preflop 6% of the time. This is valuable information and should certainly lead to us being less willing to pay them off both preflop and postflop.

 

[theANMATOR]

V is a 28 6 after 124 hands and limps/calls a lot. His bet here seemed like protection for that 9.
[/SPOILER]

I was going to comment specifically on this above. FD pretty much covered it, however I'd add - a player that limps/calls a lot pre has stats well above these stats, with respect to VPIP anyway.
Honestly to me these stats look like the villain is moderately tight passive. Not like a TAG - but he's tighter than one of those players that limps/calls A LOT. Ya know.
He doesn't raise a lot - so when he does it's probably a strong Ace or 99+.

It'd also be interesting to see his cbet % when flopping top pair or better like an overpair, and how often he's going with a delayed cbet, but that'd require additional monitoring of this player. Unless the villain is of an extreme player type - perpetual limper, or aggro donk, it's hard to get reads on villains that are not extreme types in only 100 hands.

I think I'd fold pre here - but if I was to get out of line and defend here (which I do at times) I'd most likely fold on the turn.

 

[fundiver199]

It'd also be interesting to see his cbet % when flopping top pair or better like an overpair, and how often he's going with a delayed cbet.

I think, the monotone board really matter. This is not a great board for an overpair or top pair, unless you have a flushdraw to go with it and ideally the nut flushdraw. So while a rainbow or 2-tone board probably get C-bet almost 100% of the time by an overpair or strong top pair, a monotone board does not. And especially not by someone with these stats. 28/6 indicate, that he prefer to keep the pot small, unless he is fairly sure, he has the best hand.