$1.50 NLHE MTT: is it worth to push for a +0.19% EV?

[tewwa94]

basically is a 18-players s&g, 8 left, first 4 places get paid. I'm 4th in chips in the BTN facing a opr from UTG+1. I put the hand in icmizer and it says is ok to push with ATo for a small margin. Since I'm an ICM noob I wanted to ask, is it worth it? I mean, I know matematically it its but 0.19 seems like such a small margin. I know this is a small buy-in tournament, but would you push a +0.19% in, lets say, the sunday million?



PokerStars - 100/200 Ante 25 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 4,751
CO: 3,624
Hero (BTN): 2,592
SB: 884
BB: 2,372
UTG: 1,629
UTG+1: 10,368
MP: 780

8 players post ante of 25, SB posts SB 100, BB posts BB 200

Pre Flop: (pot: 500) Hero has A♠ T♥

fold, UTG+1 raises to 400, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

UTG+1 wins 700

 

[fundiver199]

Are you sure, you selected the correct tournament? When I run this analysis, ICMizer show ATo as a marginally losing jam. Either way its close, so its totally fine to pass and hope, that one of the players behind gets involved and busted by the chip leader. The main reason, why I would jam here, is, if the chip leader is a LAG or maniac, and I think, he is opening way to wide.

 

[akmost]

I agree with @fundiver199 here , the calculations say that is a marginal +EV jam but what type is your opponent? Is he capable to open super wide UTG in order to steal the blinds and apply pressure or he plays ''optimal''?

If he is on the wider side I may 3bet jam him even wider that this otherwise no , his calling range is super narrow , he can't risk his chip lead in a flip.
If he plays ''optimal'' and ICMizer says that is a super marginal +EV jam hmmm maybe I could find the fold again and wait for a better spot in game.

I can't compare that to SM. How you compare those two and I don't mean the buy ins , I mean if I were 4 off the money in the SM?I would have passed all day long of course. Deep in tournaments players play ABC you won't see those fancy plays very often between two strangers(players). Those fancy plays with the specific blocker against the super crusher and all that cute stuff are between good regulars who know each other pretty well. In my opinion ABC poker will do the work for you.

 

[tewwa94]

Are you sure, you selected the correct tournament? When I run this analysis, ICMizer show ATo as a marginally losing jam. Either way its close, so its totally fine to pass and hope, that one of the players behind gets involved and busted by the chip leader. The main reason, why I would jam here, is, if the chip leader is a LAG or maniac, and I think, he is opening way to wide.

I'm not so sure anynore haha, it was my first time using icmizer, i'll give it another try but thank you for your answer!

 

[eetenor]

basically is a 18-players s&g, 8 left, first 4 places get paid. I'm 4th in chips in the BTN facing a opr from UTG+1. I put the hand in icmizer and it says is ok to push with ATo for a small margin. Since I'm an ICM noob I wanted to ask, is it worth it? I mean, I know matematically it its but 0.19 seems like such a small margin. I know this is a small buy-in tournament, but would you push a +0.19% in, lets say, the sunday million?



PokerStars - 100/200 Ante 25 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 4,751
CO: 3,624
Hero (BTN): 2,592
SB: 884
BB: 2,372
UTG: 1,629
UTG+1: 10,368
MP: 780

8 players post ante of 25, SB posts SB 100, BB posts BB 200

Pre Flop: (pot: 500) Hero has A♠ T♥

fold, UTG+1 raises to 400, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

UTG+1 wins 700

Thank you for posting.

As others have stated we need the chip leader to be playing wider in this spot to shove the AT.

If we have no prior evidence that the chip leader is wide the data we might use to decide is:

How passive are MP1 and CO and you- as you all can shove and really pressure UTG1 so UTG1 may not widen range vs all of you.

8 handed 4 paid with only 2 very short stacks UTG1 may not be thinking the 3 of you have to fold most of your range. With 6 left 2 shorties ICM pressure is much higher and UTG1 might be more likely to open wide expecting more folds and then fold to shoves.

Bet size may matter here as well. 2.5x open then stack off is the type of bet we might use versus agg players behind us with standard UTG1 ranges but vs passives it is a wider range hoping for folds type of bet. We would want to have notes on this V as they might always open 2.5x
We are looking for a bet size change and then ask why larger or smaller?

With AA KK QQ would the chip leader open 2.5x in this ICM spot?

Hope this helps

 

[tewwa94]

Are you sure, you selected the correct tournament? When I run this analysis, ICMizer show ATo as a marginally losing jam. Either way its close, so its totally fine to pass and hope, that one of the players behind gets involved and busted by the chip leader. The main reason, why I would jam here, is, if the chip leader is a LAG or maniac, and I think, he is opening way to wide.

I double checked it and you were totally right! I didn't set up the correct tournament and ATo was actually -0.06 EV so folding was "matematically" right. I should also consider if villain is playing wider or not as the other folks mentioned. thanks everyone!

 

[theANMATOR]

Late reply from me as usual. I might consider A/J suited, but A/T is just - blegh - and would be equal to a losing flip in my mind. Why flip here - when we can wait just a little bit - when A/T moves up in value when there are less opponents.

Also consider - if the UTG player is LAG, aggro - whatever you want to call it, he may call a jam with a wider range as well - and who wants to be in a coin toss with such a marginal hand as A/T off.

Just my opinion though - I really don't rely / do what the sims say is optimal or not. I'd rather push TTs here.

Nice thread though - thanks for posting.