$1.50 NL HE STT: Why would ICMizer say to fold here?

[tzuriel]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

STT

Buy-in

1.50

Currency

$

This hand is late in a 9man SnG. Only 3 players left and I am a big CL. Shorty shoves and I call with KTo. ICMizer says folding is better here. This V had just lost a huge pot to me when he shoved A8o and I snapped him with AQs. I kinda felt he was a little tilted and just going in with anything. But even without that, why would I fold KTo to the short stack here?



NL Holdem $1.50+$0.12 (400.00BB)
BTN (5.1BBs) [VPIP: 23.9% | PFR: 19.3% | AGG: 17.9% | hands: 204]
HERO (25.2BBs)
BB (14.7BBs) [VPIP: 19.8% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 18.8% | Hands: 99]

Dealt to Hero: K♣ T♦

BTN Raises To 5.1BBs (allin), HERO Raises To 25.2BBs (allin), BB Folds

Flop (31.4BBs): A♦ 6♦ A♥

Turn (31.4BBs): A♦ 6♦ A♥ 5♦

River (31.4BBs): A♦ 6♦ A♥ 5♦ T♥

 

[Arnakk2424]

Its not a fold
Click on "Share this result"
One of the setting is probably wrong


Edit: Ok I think I know why

Personally I think I will have call too
When you take a look at the stats (look my screenshot). ICMizer assume BB will call 30% (if you fold) of his range because of pot odd. In other world its better for your $ev to let the BB do the dirty work.

But this hand is really debatable, I would have push. Its an very interesting spot because the key point is the range of someone not in the hand yet !

 

[Arnakk2424]

 

[tzuriel]

Ok...that makes sense. I didn't think the BB would call here after I shoved because he wants to clinch 2nd place. Thanks for the response!

 

[Arnakk2424]

Ok...that makes sense. I didn't think the BB would call here after I shoved because he wants to clinch 2nd place. Thanks for the response!

Yes
the 30% is the range of BB if you fold
Good push in most case
You can edit range by right clicking a % and slide the bottom slider
With my range with FGS5
I think its more realistic in your case
Btn push 50%
BB over call only 5.7%
If SB fold, BB call 21% of hand

 

[zipocool]

the call here becomes negative only because of the player in the big blind and his possible participation in the hand, so we need to isolate him and we just go all in here

 

[fundiver199]

The Nash equilibrium only has BTN jamming 29% of hands, and against such a range KTo is a slight underdog with 46% equity. That would be completely fine given the pot odds, you are getting, if BB fold. So the reason why, this is a fold, has to be, that its very bad news for you, when BB call. He is supposed to call 8% of the time, and against his range you only have 33% equity. So its the fact, you are not closing action, which makes it a fold.

However it is close, and I certainly think, some players might be jamming more than 29% of hands in this situation. He is very short, and he already made it into the money. The difference between second and third is not that large, so there could easily be some "f.. it" factor, that makes him jam more than 29% of hands, and then the call can quickly become +EV. So if I had played this hand and reviewed it later in ICMizer, this is one of the times, where I would have been ok with the fact, I deviated from Nash.