$1.50 NL HE STT: Close spot?

[tzuriel]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

STT

Buy-in

1.50

Currency

$

Heading to the late stage of this SNG. sharkscope says all of these players are terrible. But I only had stats on a few of them, incl this V in the SB who shoves 15.88bb after my standard RFI with 44 from the CO. I was either flipping or very behind and opted to fold. Is this a close spot or just an insta-fold?

NL Holdem $1.50+$0.12 (150.00BB)
UTG (7.1BBs)
HJ (36.6BBs)
HERO (25BBs)
BTN (15.1BBs)
SB (15.8BBs) [VPIP: 31.9% | PFR: 26.4% | AGG: 21.6% | hands: 92]
BB (20.3BBs)

Dealt to Hero: 4♥ 4♠

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To 2.3BBs, BTN Folds, SB Raises To 15.8BBs (allin), BB Folds, HERO Folds

 

[Arnakk2424]

Its a 9 man or 6 man ?
Its a fold in both scenario but I can run ICMizer for you to show

 

[eetenor]

It is a fold----another question is is it an open? The SB is agg and will and should shove most of range--- the BB is calling and we have to realize equity with 44 while preserving our stack to have future fold equity---This is a spot where our stack size puts the max ICM pressure on us the SB short stacked has almost no ICM pressure-----vs weal players who fold fewer made hands post flop we lose the fold equity we would normally have to be able to turn 44 into a bluff----it would not be much of an EV error in this spot to fold 55-22 vs a potential 15bb shove and the ICM pressure

 

[fundiver199]

Actually 44 is not a "standard" open, when you have 3 perfect reshove stacks behind you. When you open 44 in this situation, what are you hoping, that will happen? You dont want to call off either player, if they jam on you, and if someone just call (most commonly big blind) your hand play poorly with shallow stacks. So really you are mostly hoping, that everyone will fold. And if that is the case, then you want to open hands, that block the reshove ranges, which mean hands with high cards.

So a hand like A4 offsuit is a good candidate to min-raise and then fold to a shove, but 44 should either be played as an open shove or simply folded. You are kind of deep for open shoving with 20,3BB effective against big blind, but the other two guys are only around 15BB, and ICMizer does have 44 as a decently profitable shove netting you 0,15% of the price pool. However that is assuming, the 3 opponents call the ranges, they are supposed to. If they are all terrible, they are probably going to call to wide, and then I would just fold 44 and hope, someone else collide, so we can get closer to the bubble.

 

[Arnakk2424]

I don't mind the open if, and only if, you know what you are going to do vs a push from btn,sb,BB push.
For this specific hand I would have open too unless its regular behind and fold to a raise in a 9man vs unknow opponent.
He have to push more then 28% of hands to be small +$ev.
But if you are wrong about his range its a BIG -$ev.

 

[Arnakk2424]

 

[tzuriel]

I always learn something from you guys. Thanks