$1.5 NLHE STT: Is hero's bluff at the river justified?

[lonenlynobita]

4 players are left in 6 people sng. We are now at level 4.

UTG folds. Our villain opens to 2 BB on the Button. Our villain has a history of playing loose (ie. At level 1, opening with 89o from UTG), but no history of bluffing.

Hero picks up on the button. Since the player in the big blind is tight and Hero is OOP, Hero decides to flat. Big Blind is out.

Pot : 4.5 BB
Effective Stack : 18.5 BB



Hero checks and Villain C-Bet 2.25 BB. 1/2 pot bet seems to be Villain's default betting size. Hero thinks Villains loves the board, but not certain whether he connected to the Queen or the lower card. Hero calls.


Pot : 9 BB
Effective Stack : 14 BB



Hero checks. Villain checks back.


Pot : 9 BB
Effective Stack : 14 BB



Hero thinks Villain doesn't have a Queen. Hero fires 6,5 BB as a bluff to get 7, 2, or 3 to fold to a 10.

 

[Edu1]

if you are OOP I think you're in SB...

the way the hand was played, I think villain will call with a high frequency and the bluff will not work

also AK is too strong to just call preflop, I would play more aggressive, a 3bet or all in preflop...

is hard to turn a AK into a bluff specially with a short stack

 

[SpanRmonka]

4 players are left in 6 people sng. We are now at level 4.

UTG folds. Our villain opens to 2 BB on the Button. Our villain has a history of playing loose (ie. At level 1, opening with 89o from UTG), but no history of bluffing.

Hero picks up on the button. Since the player in the big blind is tight and Hero is OOP, Hero decides to flat. Big Blind is out.

Pot : 4.5 BB
Effective Stack : 18.5 BB



Hero checks and Villain C-Bet 2.25 BB. 1/2 pot bet seems to be Villain's default betting size. Hero thinks Villains loves the board, but not certain whether he connected to the Queen or the lower card. Hero calls.


Pot : 9 BB
Effective Stack : 14 BB



Hero checks. Villain checks back.


Pot : 9 BB
Effective Stack : 14 BB



Hero thinks Villain doesn't have a Queen. Hero fires 6,5 BB as a bluff to get 7, 2, or 3 to fold to a 10.

I quite like the bluff personally. If we're only calling the flop in order to catch A or K, then with at least one stack quite short its not profitable enough for me. It certainly looks like a classic missed flop continuation bet from the villain. Of course it could also be that he's hit a set 3's or 2 pair on the turn, and is now trapping.
I'd be thinking that he has missed and no longer likes his hand enough to keep going. I'd like to know the villains stack size tho to make a full judgement.

If the villain doesn't have a massive stack then I def like the move, or maybe more!

What was the result by the way?

 

[Jon Poker]

I think the bluff is fine but I don't agree with the sizing. We are leaving ourselves in TERRIBLE shape when we get picked off on the river here - which all of their Qx and Tx should be doing also hands like 88s, 99s or JJs are pretty likely to find a call on the river - I also think we will be check/shoving alot of our Qx and flush draws on the flop - so if villan is a thinking player they will know we likely don't have any of those combos.

Personally - as played - I think we have too much showdown to turn out hand into a bluff - if we are afraid of a river bet then I would stick out a blocker of 2bb - 2.5bb - and if we get called, we are going to lose alot, but it's not a travesty since some weaker Ax may call us down light so we still can win some portion of the time.

When we decide to run a bluff we have to ask does the story make sense? And, what better hands are we getting to fold? If we are value betting a 7x hand here, we still lose to 88, 99, Tx and JJ - so we likely don't value bet our marginal showdowns/bluff catchers. Tx or a Qx are our only likely value combos - and our Tx will have to be pretty strong for us to value bet when villan could still have a Q they are pot controlling.

Anyhow, I'd bluff shove the river to fold out everything except a strong Tx, JJ, or a Qx holding -- that said, preflop on shorter stacks (20ish bb) - I'd stuff AK in my villans face and let the cards fall where they may when called.

 

[300HPGOD]

I would not just be calling here pre flop no matter who is in the BB or what type of player is on the button. We have a hand where we dont mind at all if someone raise jams us after our raise and we are fine with a villain or even two calling (even though we will be out of position) so there should be no fear here raising this hand. If we take it down there fine, if we get raised Im piling it in, if we get jammed Im calling it, and if we just get called then we have a strong hand and image going to the flop.

As far as post flop is played this depends on how sticky villain is post flop. Just because they are loose or aggressive pre does not mean they will be aggro or passive or whatever post flop so we need to use what we know about them for these types of hands. I completely agree with you calling on the flop and the check on the turn. When villain checks back the turn I dont think they have any 2x or 3x in their hand, I think they would try to maintain control of the hand going to the river so I would expect a small turn bet. Since they checked I am thinking Qx, 7x (which I dont think is likely either) or air. The 3 of diamonds on the turn is a great card to double barrel so I am not sure why villain checked here. I dont really think they check behind with Qx but its definitely possible, especially since villain would think you would 3 bet with AK so they believe you have one overcard at the most.

With all that being said I wouldnt bluff as played here but would be more bluff catching depending on sizing. I think villain is weighted towards air here and might try to bluff the river. We also could have them beat Ax vs Ax so I would check here and call depending on sizing, timing, etc. You arent getting Qx or 10x to fold and 7x is iffy on the fold and I still believe that is rare. Also, when you bet here the 10 hits a lot of his hands that were air after the turn. I think if we are betting here it should be smaller, smaller bet there actually looks stronger which is what we are trying to convey with the bet.

 

[fundiver199]

With 18,5BB effective I see no reason at all, why this hand was not jammed preflop over the 2BB open. When you just call here, you deliberately put yourself out of position with a hand, which miss the flop 2 out of 3 times, and then you are just playing an expensive guessing game with no idea, where you are in the hand.

Jamming is way eaiser and way more profitable as well. If you want to mix in some "traps" to have a more balanced SB calling range, then do it with AA and KK, not with AK. AK is a hand, that should almost always be played with aggression preflop, and this situation was certainly not one of the few exceptions to that rule.

As played I think, your hand has enough showdown value to check the river, and hope he check back a worse hand. With stacks this short its pretty common, that people will fire a "one and done" C-bet on the flop and then simply give up, if they get action. And there are a decent amount of hands, you still beat here, like AJ, A9, A8, A6, A5, A4, KJ, K9 and so on.

 

[kkonicke]

As played, I like the bluff play. Villain can have a lot of small pockets or A2/A3/A7 that can fold to that sizing. Playing OOP, you can easily have Qx the whole way through. I personally would probably smooth call that flop bet with KQ for example. The only natural draw bluff is missed hearts. I think a lot of the time, you are betting the best hand rather than bluffing...but often enough this guy will barely have you beat and fold here.

All that said, no way am I not 3betting preflop with this hand 4 handed. Sometimes you can get tricky with AA or KK, but AK for me is a 3bet in 99% of cases for me.

 

[johnnylawford]

With 18,5BB effective I see no reason at all, why this hand was not jammed preflop over the 2BB open.

Definitely agree with this, or at least a 3X 3-bet, especially given you are short handed. Was this a turbo, or regular speed SnG? That shouldn't be a factor on raising with this hand, but I'd be even more incline to shove if it's a faster structure SnG.