$1.40 NLHE Bounty: another 88 vs against a LAG

[belerophon]

$1.40 NL HE Bounty: another 88 vs against a LAG

I think I made a wrong move here and maybe someone can confirm this.
I know my table image was tight and I had a LAG on a heater to my right so blind steals were non existent.

I was pretty sure the lag would call VPip was around 40%, limped in utg on my bb every hand for the whole tourney and insta called my previous shove preflop. I was ok with taking a thin edge to double up and take half his chips.

However after considering it he may have made the right call with two overs. Just how thin was my edge here preflop? Calculators seem to put this as almost a true coin flip. Is this right? If so I'll have to be more careful.




poker stars $1.00+$0.25+$0.15 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200/t400 Blinds + t50 - 6 players - View hand 900187
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP: t6877 M = 7.64
CO: t10484 M = 11.65
Hero (BTN): t9604 M = 10.67
SB: t19652 M = 21.84
BB: t9100 M = 10.11
UTG: t24345 M = 27.05

Pre Flop: (t900) Hero is BTN with 8 :diamond: 8 :heart:
1 fold, MP calls t400, 1 fold, Hero raises to t9554 all in, SB calls t9354, 2 folds

Flop: (t20208) Q :club: 3 :heart: K :diamond: (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t20208) 7 :heart: (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t20208) 3 :spade: (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: t20208
Hero shows 8 :diamond: 8 :heart: (two pair, Eights and Threes)
SB shows Q :spade: T :spade: (two pair, Queens and Threes)
SB wins t20208

 

[bgomez89]

this is really standard and I liked the way you played it. I think that you probably could have just raised since you have ~24 bbs but i dont mind the shove

 

[belerophon]

I'm ok with it given what I knew about villain also. it's the math that has me questioning it. I put the hands into a poker calculator and it tells me my edge here is a miniscule .05% about 50.04 to 49.96 or something.

I had assumed my edge was greater... maybe around 8%.

Just wondering if someone can confirm these numbers for me.

 

[tenbob]

Really standard shove.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,712,304 games 0.031 secs 55,235,612 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.892% 50.70% 00.20% 868054 3368.50 { 8d8h }
Hand 1: 49.108% 48.91% 00.20% 837513 3368.50 { QsTs }

 

[belerophon]

yup those were the results I got. I compared Q10 unsuited as well and got numbers more in line with what I thought my % was. I read in several places that suited did not make much difference percentage wise... guess I was wrong.