$1.25 NLHE Deep Stacked: Shortstacked on Bubble with AJs

[Tublecain]

$1.25 NL HE Deep Stacked: Shortstacked on Bubble with AJs

A little bit of context on the hand. We're right on the bubble of a 90 man tourney, 3 players between me and the money. I've been catching cold cards and running into resistance with my steals, so I'm sitting on about 15 times the BB.

The limper in EP has been open limping with marginal hands all day (Axs, QJo, etc) so I'm thinking about a raise even before I realize I have AJs. But before I can act the big stack to my right raises first. Now, this player has stolen a few times for the past couple of blind levels, and appears to be an intelligent player. I haven't seem him show down many hands, so my read is that he's made the same observation I did and is stealing here with a marginal hand.

I'm thinking that I'm probably good to shove for a re-steal here, putting me in very good position to patiently play the bubble and profitably build my stack ITM. I'm thinking that chances are he's holding something like Axs, KQ or perhaps a middle pocket pair. I'm really not banking on too much fold equity, since his stack is pretty big, but I'm thinking that he'll call me with marginal holdings. My stack is also getting pretty small, and I might not survive the bubble with the blinds eating away and all these big stacks on my table, so I'm ok with a coinflip here even if he does already have a medium pair. In my experience with the 1.25 tourneys, the first money bubble and the final table bubble both tend to be very long.

Then I think to myself, "hmmm, I am 3 places away from the money and could wait for a better spot to double up." This guy could very well be holding premium and you're throwing your money away right before you at least get your money back... I know these thoughts are very harmful to your long-term EV, but I can't help but think them from time to time Do we muck AJs here and wait for a better spot, or shove and hope for the best?

Thanks in advance, hand is below.

T.

[b]Hand Information[/b]
Full Tilt Poker - Get $600 Free No Limit, 300 BB (7 handed).
Hand History converter courtesy of [url=http://www.pokerhandreplays.com]pokerhandreplays.com[/url]

[b]Table Information[/b]
Seat: 1 Player 1 ($15763)
Seat: 2 [color=Red]Hero[/color] ($3665) Dealer
Seat: 3 Player 3 ($19640) Small Blind
Seat: 4 Player 4 ($10070) Big Blind
Seat: 5 Player 5 ($24345)
Seat: 7 Player 7 ($14280)
Seat: 8 Player 8 ($20248)
Seat 1Player 1Seat 2[color=Red]Hero[/color]Seat 3Player 3Seat 4Player 4Seat 5Player 5Seat 7Player 7Seat 8Player 8Dealt to [color=Red]Hero[/color]
[img]http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/images/poker_image/AH.png[/img] [img]http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/images/poker_image/JH.png[/img] 

[b]Preflop[/b] (Pot:625)
[i]FOLD[/i] Player 5 
[i]FOLD[/i] Player 7 
[i]CALL[/i] Player 8 $300
[i]RAISE[/i] Player 1 $1200
[i]??????[/i] [color=Red]Hero[/color]

 

[Debi]

How long are the blind levels and how long til the next increase? If your goal is to make it to the money you have 12xbb and probably can if it is only 3 spots to the money.

But for me - I am shoving every time here. His raise was probably positional and his range is wide. Yea - you might end up in a coin toss - but with a short stack like that you might not get another chance with cards that good.

 

[Jillychemung]

I'd have to fold this here. Yeah there is the chance that you won't find a better spot but will Player 1's range be soo bad that you can think that you'll have a decent shot of being ahead of his range?? I'd much rather wait for a spot where I can be up against 1 player instead of 2 with this kind of hand.

 

[ckingriches]

I generally roll my eyes that someone beat me to it and fold AJ situations like this. I would think you'd have a better positional opportunity than this, even if your hand isn't as strong.

 

[Nevig]

It doesn't take much to beat AJ suited. He could be trying to steal with 2's, and if you don't hit either a A, J, or a bunch of hearts, your out. If he has AQ or AK, your dominated.

Your read on him is good, and your in a good spot to re-raise to ensure you get a nice healthy chipstack, but all it takes is one bad call, to be out.

If your feeling lucky, and think you can take it down with that shove, go for it! Me personally, I'd muck it.

 

[toogood2k]

dunno there is flat call or fold, nothing else you can get beaten by many hands there, even you hit on flop that Ace there could be "raiser" got AK and you can be dead. If lucky mybe hit ur flushdraw or best way flush, dunno if i were on your stack i should better folded

 

[Tublecain]

Well, in this case it was a mistake. I ended up shoving and the villain turned over AKo. My read on the original limper however, was spot on (he had Q9o). I still think that considering my position in the tourney, the blind levels about to go up, and my diminutive stack, that it wasn't the worst of calls considering my reads. But I think that from now on I'll be a little more careful with my re-steals, choosing maybe even Suited Connectors over something easily dominated by a strong hand like AJ.

Thanks again for all the responses everyone!