$1.20 NLHE STT: Confused by this limp shove

[Clambake420]

$1.20 NL HE STT: Confused by this limp shove

4 people left in this SNG. The players that are left are all pretty weak players. The villain is no exception and i figure him to bust eventually being the short stack, but then this hand comes up. limps around to me i bump it to 200 and the short stack shoves.

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 1.2 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t5525)
Hero (BB) (t1230)
UTG (t835)
Button (t5910)

Hero's M: 16.40

Preflop: Hero is BB with

,

UTG calls t50, 1 fold, SB calls t25, Hero bets t200, UTG raises to t835 (All-In), Hero????


I figure he was doing this with a smaller pp and just trying to double or he was trapping with a strong hand which seemed less likely the more i think about it cause he risks not getting value with his strong hands when he needs chips. If i call and im wrong and he doubles, im so crippled i bubble. If i fold i still have some chips with him still being about even stacks with me. Not to mention if he doubles up in the next few hands i would be in the same situation as if i called and lost and bubbled next hand. i sometimes get so confused by limp re-shoves i just cant seem to put them on a proper range, and when im confused thats when i make all the wrong decisions. Im probably missing out on alot of good opportunity's by making wrong decisions against these types of plays.

 

[cjatud2012]

I don't know what's wrong with CC today, but my response keeps on getting cut short and messed up. I'll try to re-post it later. Basically I think we have to make this call but the real mistake of the hand is not checking our option out of the BB.

 

[cjatud2012]

first off, raising here is terrible. And that's not just because you got re-raised, it's because when you can't take it down pre-flop, the flop is gonna come and 2/3 of the time you'll whiff and have absolutely no clue what to do, since you're out of position. That's a mistake you can't make when you're at ~20bb's.

Whether we should call the re-raise or not is a matter of pot odds and range. Most people will tell you that when this happens you're almost always against a monster, however I don't feel that's the same from weak players. In my experience I've been limp/re-raised by hands as weak as KQ or 77. Not to say that he's that wide here, but he's not as narrow as KK+ either. So let's say 99+, AJs+, AQo+. Our equity against that range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.291% 30.84% 03.45% 30097647 3370959.00 { AcJc }
Hand 1: 65.709% 62.26% 03.45% 60761763 3370959.00 { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }

So there's t1135 in the pot and we need t535 to call. That's odds of 2.12:1, so we need apx 32% equity (if my math is right). So it'd be +cEV since our equity is <34%, but if you consider ICM tax and $EV our call becomes more marginal, especially since if we lose we become the favorite to bubble. All things considered I'd probably still call, but the real mistake here is not checking our option imo.

 

[cjatud2012]

hey it worked! woohoo

 

[Clambake420]

wow awesome post, thanks for taking the time to work the math out. Yea i think this is one of many leaks, i see a nice hand, we're 4 handed i forget to look at chip stacks and postion and next thing i know im just raising a good hand cause it feels natural. The funny thing is is ive been running this hand through my head over and over and i never said well maybe i should of just checked my option and played the flop. I've been kicking myself over this hand cause i hate when i make stupid decisions. JUST CHECK THE OPTION!! haha.

Thanks for clearing this up for me. In hindsight after i made the poor decision to raise i should of just called cause i shortly bubbled anyways.

 

[cjatud2012]

lol, yeah, you just really have to consider all of your options. Your cards are only one part of the equation, and the other factors should have a big influence on your decision. For example, if the blinds were 50/100 instead of 25/50, this becomes an easy shove. But given all of the parameters here in this situation, our best option among check/raise/shove is just to check.