$1.10 NLHE MTT: Facing awkward turn XR

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Hello everybody,

I’m going to try a something a little different for today’s post. The following hand is from a small stakes 350 man cap MTT. Very early on.

Here is the hand: https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/224zf5FED

I want to get people’s opinions on ranging to see how my thoughts compare to yours. So I will respond with the result of the hand later on for anyone who cares to know. When the villain calls the flop and check raises the turn (for a very unusual sizing) I’m curious what reads this generates for you and what value range and bluff range you put him on by combo#.

Then if you would call, go all in or fold with what frequencies.
Thanks and hope everyone is staying safe and getting it in good.
 
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ssbn743

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Hello everybody,

I’m going to try a something a little different for today’s post. The following hand is from a small stakes 350 man cap MTT. Very early on.

Here is the hand: https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/224zf5FED

I want to get people’s opinions on ranging to see how my thoughts compare to yours. So I will respond with the result of the hand later on for anyone who cares to know. When the villain calls the flop and check raises the turn (for a very unusual sizing) I’m curious what reads this generates for you and what value range and bluff range you put him on by combo#.

Then if you would call, go all in or fold with what frequencies.
Thanks and hope everyone is staying safe and getting it in good.

I actually really like this hand - you played it well

Pre
4x is fine and I would be fine with even 5x or 6x honestly, depends on how bad the big blind is, but it looks to me like he's pretty bad.

Flop
I would prefer a larger size here. It is true that we block diamond and Broadway combo's, but this is a pretty connected board and we need to size accordingly. The size chosen probably isn't horrible since we're multi-way, but we're only min-multi-way if that's a term. I prefer 350-400 here.

Turn
Yep, ridiculous micro-tales, and I like this size. When we get raised with basically nothing behind I think we have to stack it. We block a lot of draws, and even if we didn't, are you really folding top/top when no draws got there? Stack it.

However, we are probably losing to J5 or something even more ridiculous - but, whatever...

For a range analysis, villain should never have JJ or KK. It's possible that he has 77, that makes some sense, and maybe 55, but with stack sizes I would think he'd have to fold flop with 55.

Just to take a shot at building a range:
(77,ATs,KJs+,K7s,QTs,J8s-J7s,T9s,75s,ATo,KJo,K7o,QTo,J8o-J7o)

Which gives us 60% equity. I think it's pretty to safe to say that villain never folds from this point on. I'll attach a pic of the spreadsheet, but looks to be immensely profitable -even though he prob has j5 :)

Also, ranging this villain isn't all that important (and it's probably impossible anyway) as we only need about 20% equity to breakeven here - this is a stack off, no question.
 

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eetenor

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Hello everybody,

I’m going to try a something a little different for today’s post. The following hand is from a small stakes 350 man cap MTT. Very early on.

Here is the hand: https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/224zf5FED

I want to get people’s opinions on ranging to see how my thoughts compare to yours. So I will respond with the result of the hand later on for anyone who cares to know. When the villain calls the flop and check raises the turn (for a very unusual sizing) I’m curious what reads this generates for you and what value range and bluff range you put him on by combo#.

Then if you would call, go all in or fold with what frequencies.
Thanks and hope everyone is staying safe and getting it in good.

Thank you for posting

Preflop bet sizing vs micro players can be larger we have a premium hand but not invulnerable. So we can bet more get called by fit or folds and dominate Ax and define V ranges a little better. It also helps if we ever bluff

On the flop we should not be thinking 3 streets or stacking off. Micro players put us on AK pre a lot so this flop screams AK to a micro player. So what is a micro player check raising with?
Why would they semi bluff u after 2bets by u?
Most micro flush draws get it in on the flop by check shoving that stack size if they are going to be agg

So either we have a player with no idea that KQ is a bluff catcher or we have 2pair plus
You will see many more 2 pair plus than bad Kx on the turn


Your turn bet size is not a good range vs range sizing. Nor is it good SPR sizing. V has 77 JJ in their range and some KJ we have the Ad which suggests fewer flush draws.

If we want KT to raise we need smaller sizing to indicate weakness. In micros strength is strength as your bet sizing exactly corresponded with your perceived strength in this spot. Also V never fold flush draws so we need to balance stack preservation and chip accumulation and smaller sizing does that better

Of course all of the above is mute vs an unskilled V

One last point, the min check raise in micros is 100% value on the turn. That does not preclude KQ as a value bet by the least skilled players
With that said you should fold but if no fold then call fold unimproved on the river instead of shoving unless you have a read.
The question we ask about V is what do they want me to do and do the opposite.

Hope this helps
 
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Jon Poker

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It's really weird for the 5 to have changed anything on this board - I feel like perhaps we are up against a set smooth calling to flop to try and keep the 3rd opponent in - it's a possible 2 pair spot...just hard to find any of those as well because we block the hell out of KJ, I cant imagine QT spazzing out like this...even QT diamonds. Feels like we are beat for sure...I wouldn't be reraising here, I would be calling and evaluating rivers. We are just soooooo high up in our range I'm still not sure we can fold many rivers.

This is one of those spots where we are probably beat but too strong to let it go - this is why we practice good bankroll management and should be well rolled for the games we are playing! Sometimes we just get coolered
 
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fundiver199

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On the turn he had the perfect stack size to check-jam yet he chose to check-miniraise leaving himself less than a third of his stack behind. To me this line scream "please call me", so I think, his range is sets and two pair. JJ, 77 KJ are the reasonable ones. If he is bad, he can also have something ridiculous like K5. I prefer a fold here, unless you have some kind of read. If you dont want to fold, I agree with getting it in. No point in just calling and allow him to play perfect on the river with a busted draw. But to be honest I dont think, he has a draw more than maybe 5-10% of the time.
 
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ssbn743

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On the turn he had the perfect stack size to check-jam yet he chose to check-miniraise leaving himself less than a third of his stack behind. To me this line scream "please call me", so I think, his range is sets and two pair. JJ, 77 KJ are the reasonable ones. If he is bad, he can also have something ridiculous like K5. I prefer a fold here, unless you have some kind of read. If you dont want to fold, I agree with getting it in. No point in just calling and allow him to play perfect on the river with a busted draw. But to be honest I dont think, he has a draw more than maybe 5-10% of the time.

This is an interesting spot for sure.

If we include only hands that beat us in his range:
KK,JJ,77,55,AdAh,AdAs,AdAc,AhAc,KJs,K7s,K5s,J7s,J5s,75s,KJo,K7o,K5o,J7o,J5o,75o
and if you take out the AA and KK combo's it doesn't change much, about 1% more equity for us)

We're just barely -EV, by about $273 chips. If we can add in any amount of busted draw combo's, some of which we block, we're positive EV. If we can add all draw combo's, we're massively +EV

So, I mean, not sure we can answer this question here - this is a live read/accurate ranging thing, I guess.

That said, I still don't see myself folding in a micro... There's just too much buffoonery....I dunno
 
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ibetmyho

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The turn min raise does look strong but there is no chance in hell you can fold AK in this spot in a micro. Villain could show up with all sorts.
 
SuzdalDEcor

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I think you played well. But you can call this ckech-raise and push river. Its not will be bad idea
 
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300HPGOD

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I like the sizing of the preflop raise, I think 4x is perfect. The sizing on the flop bet I also think is just about right. The turn bet sizing I think is too large. You go 2/3rds here and you dont have to. You dont want Jx to fold and if he has something that beats you you will find out about it soon or he will just call which only saves you chips.

As for the check raise, obviously it will be villain dependent but in a vacuum this screams two pair minimum to me. If I had to take a stab at getting specific I would say set of 7s of KJ makes a lot of sense to me as well. I think we should be folding here unless we can put villain on a bluff at least 20% or so of the time. You are just beat here too often. Also note, if you bet the turn smaller here you would have an easier decision to make as you have at least come close to committing yourself here.
 
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Thank you all for your input! Great seeing everyone's different thought processes.

As promised, my analysis and result of the actual hand to follow... would like to preface by saying often times this kind of silly looking raise (or even an all in raise like this on the turn) has often been a turned two pair (and usually a two pair that shouldn't be in a reasonable calling range, sometimes suited sometimes not) and occasionally the complete airball. A very small amount of the time it is an actual cooler or a draw that makes sense.
My analysis:
Value Turn XR range: 3 sets of JJ, 3 sets of 77, 1 set of KK, 3 KJs for a total of 10 combos.
Bluff Turn XR range: QTs (4x), AQo (12x), T9s (4x) for a total of 20 combos. With just three different hands we can already see a very unbalanced turn XR range which would not be unusual for someone also choosing such an unconventional raise size. On the other hand, some of these hands may continue as a call, or a weak player could choose to raise like this only with nuttish combos. I wasn’t happy about the raise but it didn’t really add up and I was pot committed and ahead of all draws so I ripped it in. He called with Q8o! (And made a pair of 8s on the river lol).
As for the rest of my range in this spot, hands behind with 8 clean outs are about break even to call (8/46= 17.3% vs. 18% offered by sizing). Against a larger raise would lean towards folding.
Cheers
 
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I actually really like this hand - you played it well

Pre
4x is fine and I would be fine with even 5x or 6x honestly, depends on how bad the big blind is, but it looks to me like he's pretty bad.

Flop
I would prefer a larger size here. It is true that we block diamond and Broadway combo's, but this is a pretty connected board and we need to size accordingly. The size chosen probably isn't horrible since we're multi-way, but we're only min-multi-way if that's a term. I prefer 350-400 here.

Turn
Yep, ridiculous micro-tales, and I like this size. When we get raised with basically nothing behind I think we have to stack it. We block a lot of draws, and even if we didn't, are you really folding top/top when no draws got there? Stack it.

However, we are probably losing to J5 or something even more ridiculous - but, whatever...

For a range analysis, villain should never have JJ or KK. It's possible that he has 77, that makes some sense, and maybe 55, but with stack sizes I would think he'd have to fold flop with 55.

Just to take a shot at building a range:
(77,ATs,KJs+,K7s,QTs,J8s-J7s,T9s,75s,ATo,KJo,K7o,QTo,J8o-J7o)

Which gives us 60% equity. I think it's pretty to safe to say that villain never folds from this point on. I'll attach a pic of the spreadsheet, but looks to be immensely profitable -even though he prob has j5 :)

Also, ranging this villain isn't all that important (and it's probably impossible anyway) as we only need about 20% equity to breakeven here - this is a stack off, no question.


That spreadsheet looks like one I remember seeing a while back from RCP or splitsuit, is that the one? Or one you made
 
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ssbn743

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That spreadsheet looks like one I remember seeing a while back from RCP or splitsuit, is that the one? Or one you made

Splitsuit - yep, not mine...
 
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ssbn743

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Thank you all for your input! Great seeing everyone's different thought processes.

As promised, my analysis and result of the actual hand to follow... would like to preface by saying often times this kind of silly looking raise (or even an all in raise like this on the turn) has often been a turned two pair (and usually a two pair that shouldn't be in a reasonable calling range, sometimes suited sometimes not) and occasionally the complete airball. A very small amount of the time it is an actual cooler or a draw that makes sense.
My analysis:
Value Turn XR range: 3 sets of JJ, 3 sets of 77, 1 set of KK, 3 KJs for a total of 10 combos.
Bluff Turn XR range: QTs (4x), AQo (12x), T9s (4x) for a total of 20 combos. With just three different hands we can already see a very unbalanced turn XR range which would not be unusual for someone also choosing such an unconventional raise size. On the other hand, some of these hands may continue as a call, or a weak player could choose to raise like this only with nuttish combos. I wasn’t happy about the raise but it didn’t really add up and I was pot committed and ahead of all draws so I ripped it in. He called with Q8o! (And made a pair of 8s on the river lol).
As for the rest of my range in this spot, hands behind with 8 clean outs are about break even to call (8/46= 17.3% vs. 18% offered by sizing). Against a larger raise would lean towards folding.
Cheers


Yep - math works :)

However, this simply comes down to accurate ranging.
 
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