This is a discussion on $1.10 NLHE MTT: Big $1.10 - Last Couple of tables within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; Hand: https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/524KI8uBp
Villan is a winning reg (30k+ on micro stakes), 24/14/12 over 75 hands
He chip leading and I am the second in chips (we are
I think, you lost some value here. Maybe he wont stack off with 99, but if he is a good player, you essentially have the nuts here. His range for opening from MP and then calling a sizable 3-bet should not contain anything, which beat AQ on this board, other than maybe occationally the one available combo of QQ. All the low cards are essentially bricks, and if anyone can have hands like A2s or A5s, its more likely to be you making the 3-bet than him calling it. So in theoretical terms you have nut advantage as well as range advantage on this board, and I would go small bet, small bet, shove against most opponents.
You lost small value on river (possible).
Not sure if you win more in case of small bet, small bet, shove strategy (for that hand only). Try to look at it from the side of the villain: with 99 you behind vs most of 3-bet range. Only AK and AJ.
re: Poker & $1.10 NLHE MTT: Big $1.10 - Last Couple of tables
Hello, Yes, I agree in the large part with guys. I also think that you lost a little value. For me it seems that you afraid a little play with chipleader of the tournament. The flop is very good for you, most of the times you will have the best hand, TPTK on this flop is strong hand, so I prefer a bet on the flop for about 67% of the pot, sometimes more than 67% for value and to protect TPTK, because we play against chipleader of the tournament and he can try suprise us with some weaker hands. The flop is very friendly for you, I don't see too many draws and I don't want to give him a free card. On the turn can come probably only one card with that you can have any problem - any king, but if on the turn come safe card I think we can bet for value. For me it seems that you want play a little pot control in this situation. If you want play pot control OOP, I can understand your game in this situation against bigger stack that your. GL
Thanks for the comments everyone. I agree I should've tried to get another street of value in this run out. I was definately playing it safe, trying to pot control vs the chip leader since we were both applying some pressure on the other stacks.
I think I should've bet ~60% OTF, check turn and try to get another street of value on the river.