$1.10 NLHE MTT: Bet the river?

[doomasiggy]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 40/20/50 over 50 hands.

poker stars $1.00+$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t150/t300 Blinds + t25 - 9 players - View hand 1720934
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG+2: t3736 M = 5.53
MP1: t6775 M = 10.04
Hero (MP2): t13037 M = 19.31
CO: t11710 M = 17.35
BTN: t17914 M = 26.54
SB: t2821 M = 4.18
BB: t11052 M = 16.37
UTG: t18874 M = 27.96
UTG+1: t10450 M = 15.48

Pre Flop: (t675) Hero is MP2 with Q

K

4 folds, Hero raises to t660, CO calls t660, 3 folds

Flop: (t1995) 6

A

K

(2 players)
Hero bets t990, CO calls t990

Turn: (t3975) 5

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets t1200, Hero calls t1200

River: (t6375) J

(2 players)

Hero: ???

When he calls the flop I figure he either has a flush draw or an A, so I decide to check/fold the turn but when he bets so low he gives me pot odds to call and hit the nut flush on the river. So I call and hit the river. Do I bet out here or do I check/raise the river and hope he calls me with a weaker flush?

 

[baudib1]

Fake-block the river

 

[doomasiggy]

Fake-block the river

Gotta admit, not familiar with that poker term.

 

[1luckysob]

Gotta admit, not familiar with that poker term.

A blocking bet is a bet from OOP to try to keep the player IP from making a bigger bet. I think he just means throw out an obvious blocking bet so that opponent will try to come over the top

 

[Karkus77]

obvious blocking bet? in a $1mtt ? no chance, dunno how many hands you have on that guy, but his stats say agro especially post flop, so i am 100% check raising this river card

 

[doomasiggy]

obvious blocking bet? in a $1mtt ? no chance, dunno how many hands you have on that guy, but his stats say hugely agro, so i am 100% check raising this river card

Had 50 hands on him at the time. I'll edit the main post to say that.

 

[baudib1]

obvious blocking bet? in a $1mtt ? no chance, dunno how many hands you have on that guy, but his stats say agro especially post flop, so i am 100% check raising this river card

If he's aggro a block will be better DUCY

 

[Worak]

obvious blocking bet? in a $1mtt ? no chance, dunno how many hands you have on that guy, but his stats say agro especially post flop, so i am 100% check raising this river card

Opp calls pre and flop and only bets turn as checked to him as the possible flush completes - can't see that much aggression there or am I missing something ?

To OP:

With villain having about 8.5K behind on river I'd bet ~2000 trying to "induce".

You'd get checked back too often with that 4 to a flush board if he hasn't got Ax10h+, Qh10h+ hands imo.

 

[OMGITSOVER9K]

just lead for value, I think it'll win more in the long term since most players at small MTT's are stations.

check-raising may get a bigger bet in when he has a worse flush but he'll just check back all his non heart hands and we miss a ton of value.

could bet small to induce but its more likely he'll just flat and then raise all the hands he'd raise a normal lead with imo.

just bet like 3/3.5k, he can still jam, but if we get called we got a decent amount of value.

thats just my 2c.

 

[1luckysob]

1200 bet on the river seems like a good fake-block to me

 

[Karkus77]

can't see that much aggression there or am I missing something ?

i am basing that on the 50 A%

 

[Karkus77]

If he's aggro a block will be better DUCY

i disagree with you, but as i remember your posts in this section are fact and not opinion i wont bother to argue

 

[BlueNowhere]

I disagree that a fake-blocker is best. I'd go for 3.8K.

 

[baudib1]

obvious blocking bet? in a $1mtt ? no chance, dunno how many hands you have on that guy, but his stats say agro especially post flop, so i am 100% check raising this river card

i disagree with you, but as i remember your posts in this section are fact and not opinion i wont bother to argue

He's not going to call a C-R with a bluff. C-R whittles his calling range down to the 2nd nuts am is easily the worst line imaginable.

 

[Karkus77]

or fake block bet a small amount and he calls with a Ace, or medium heart, both of which he might have bet/bluffed if checked to him, and his bluff would have been ALOT bigger than a small block bet

i was not suggesting the "fake block bet" is bad, just that in a $1 MTT not many villians are going to understand a blocker bet let alone to reraise bluff one

 

[BlueNowhere]

or fake block bet a small amount and he calls with a Ace, or medium heart, both of which he might have bet/bluffed if checked to him, and his bluff would have been ALOT bigger than a small block bet

i was not suggesting the "fake block bet" is bad, just that in a $1 MTT not many villians are going to understand a blocker bet let alone to reraise bluff one

I don't think he'll bet most hands with showdown value (except some flushes) which I think he can have alot of here and I think c/r is bad. The fake blocker bet is just fps imo and just a straight out bet is best.

 

[Karkus77]

I don't think he'll bet most hands with showdown value (except some flushes) which I think he can have alot of here and I think c/r is bad. The fake blocker bet is just fps imo and just a straight out bet is best.

but due to his high aggression i think he might turn alot of hands into a bluff on that scary board

 

[baudib1]

but due to his high aggression i think he might turn alot of hands into a bluff on that scary board

yes. But. If he is bluffing he's almost never calling a raise. You need to bet something here because he's going to check back a huge % of the time.

 

[OMGITSOVER9K]

thing is.. he may fold to a bet but if he's folding he's always going to check back imo.

he isn't calling a check raise without a big heart..

he can shove over our river donk bet as well, and I think we make more money when he calls the donk or shoves over then when we check raise the river and win like a 3k bet from him.

we can bet 3k get more calls + shoves which makes more money..

the math obv isnt perfect because I cba working it out, but donking for value is more profitable.

edit: 3k = 4.5k+, bet more.

 

[Karkus77]

we shall agree to disagree

but my original point stands, making a fake blocking bet because it will look like one and make the other guy bluff raise is not a great strategy for a $1 mtt, i think your overestimating the skill level of the average $1 player

 

[BlueNowhere]

but due to his high aggression i think he might turn alot of hands into a bluff on that scary board

He might turn some hands into a bluff but he can do the same if you bet 3-4K by shoving over you as well as getting some call from things he otherwise would've checked back.

 

[shinedown.45]

we shall agree to disagree

but my original point stands, making a fake blocking bet because it will look like one and make the other guy bluff raise is not a great strategy for a $1 mtt, i think your overestimating the skill level of the average $1 player

But where is the value in checking here?....there is none.

If you make a small bet, there is likely a good chance he will come over the top because he is so aggressive or just call because he has a piece of the board, the chance that he'll fold is low because of his aggressive play.

With betting we at least have more money in the pot to entice an aggressive player to come over the top.

My usual stance in this particular position is always to bet low as to induce a raise from an aggressive player which usually turns out to be the right move.

 

[jbbb]

I bet because there is too much risk villain will check behind. He's a fish he can easily find a call here with two pair, A5,A6,AJ and of course a flush. Bet about 3,999 to 4,0001.

 

[ManicLombax]

Definitely agree betting is better than checking, no question. As for the fake blocker bet, I think the same logic applies. The board is super scary, and he's played the hand as if he has something. If we think he's likely to check behind a good portion of the time, he may also just call the blocker bet a good portion of the time for the same reasons.

I'm betting about 4k here.

 

[MasterOfDisaster]

I'm betting about 4k here.

I don't know for sure but I think a blocker bet is a more smallish bet.