$0.50 NLHE STT Turbo: TT from UTG+1 against a TAG player, Call?

[konatus]

60/120 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
7 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo)

Stacks:
UTG Jamus357 (1,155) 10bb
UTG+1 HERO (4,675) 39bb
MP dr KARE (807) 7bb
CO Timszzzzz (1,555) 13bb
BTN FrutseldeFruts (3,063) 26bb
SB koko9019 (1,105) 9bb
BB mal encarado (1,140) 10bb

Blinds: 60/120

Pre-Flop: (180, 7 players) HERO is UTG+1
1 fold, HERO raises to 300, 1 fold, Timszzzzz goes all-in 1,555, 3 folds, HERO ???

The villain is a tight player and seems to bet and raise with monster hands. I think he has hands like AJ+, JJ+ so he has

AQ = 16 hands
AK = 16 hands
AJ = 16 hands
JJ = 6 hands
QQ = 6 hands
KK = 6 hands
AA = 6 hands

So often (66,7%) he has AJ, AQ or AK since 48 / 72 = 0,667

Although I think he has AJ, AQ or AK I am playing against a range of hands and my chances to win in Heads Up against AJ+, JJ+ is:

43.71% vs 56.29%

If I fold the villain stay with 2035 chips, I stay with 4375 the SB with 1045 and the BB with 1020

So when I fold after the raise of 300 my equity is 27.7

http://www.icmpoker.com/icmcalculator/#MzdA

When I call my equity is:

EQ = (Win Probability) * (Equity after win) + (Lose probability) * (Equity after lose)

EQ = (0,4371) * (35.5) + (0,5629) * (21.97)

EQ = 15,52 + 12,37

EQ = 27,9

http://www.icmpoker.com/icmcalculator/#fkAW

So if we compare the Equity of the fold and Equity of the call we see that the Equity call > Equity Fold but the difference is not high and the call maybe is not be a good option.

27.9 > 27.7


But if my opponent has the hands AJ+ my chances of win is:

56.25% vs 43.75%

and the equity of the call is:

EQ = (0,5625) * (35,5) + (0,4375) * (21,97)

EQ = 19,97 + 9,61

EQ = 29,58

And the call is the better option

Maybe I did a lot of wrong calculus. Can someone help me to fix the calculus?

 

[WiZZiM]

edit- read the op post wrong, posting unhelpful info

 

[hffjd2000]

Like this, If he has AJ...AK, then math says calling is profitable slightly (compare 1:1 to 2:1). If he has JJ...AA, youre toast. Now you said he is tight, so most likely, his minimum hand is JJ here.

I think you lose preflop here 4:1 since I consider his hand min. JJ and above. I will fold here.

 

[RamdeeBen]

Don't think we can open 2.6x and fold to a 10bb shove with TT. Just to strong a hand even if villain is tight, given our price and also we have to factor in that just because he has previously been tight doesn't mean his wide doesn't get wider the short stack he gets, as that's pretty standard to start getting your stack in lighter. Sure there will be times these nits always have it, but there will be times he's 3B shoving any pair too, ATs+/AJo+ etc.

How's our image been at the the table? Also factor in our stack size, he's going to assume we're opening wider given we're the biggest stack so I'm calling here.

 

[invisile]

If our imago is aggro i would call, but if we are play tight also, i would fold. This is 7handed and TT is pretty good hand in these stacksizes and if we are opening a lot, i think he could shove every pair and hands like AT,A9s.

 

[konatus]

edit- read the op post wrong, posting unhelpful info

I didn't understand what you mean.

 

[konatus]

Don't think we can open 2.6x and fold to a 10bb shove with TT. Just to strong a hand even if villain is tight, given our price and also we have to factor in that just because he has previously been tight doesn't mean his wide doesn't get wider the short stack he gets, as that's pretty standard to start getting your stack in lighter. Sure there will be times these nits always have it, but there will be times he's 3B shoving any pair too, ATs+/AJo+ etc.

How's our image been at the the table? Also factor in our stack size, he's going to assume we're opening wider given we're the biggest stack so I'm calling here.

I had a tight image, IMO, and I think now that since he was on CO position and with few chips in his stack maybe he could push more loose like 99+, AT+ or QK+

 

[Arjonius]

Unless you have a sizable sample, I wonder how confident you can be putting him on the range you did. For one thing, his 13bb stack is in the range to 3bet shove wider than that if he thinks he has decent fold equity.

Plus what indications did you have that he thought you were tight. Even if you were, you only had a tight image if he thought so. At this level, there's no dearth of players who primarily focus on their own hands and thus don't form images well, if at all.

 

[konatus]

Unless you have a sizable sample, I wonder how confident you can be putting him on the range you did. For one thing, his 13bb stack is in the range to 3bet shove wider than that if he thinks he has decent fold equity.

Plus what indications did you have that he thought you were tight. Even if you were, you only had a tight image if he thought so. At this level, there's no dearth of players who primarily focus on their own hands and thus don't form images well, if at all.

Thank you for the Analysis and alert me about this point

 

[horizon12]

against tight range we have 53% equity, this profitable call vs 13bb..

 

[rdm4k]

@ 0.5 most of the players dont really realize if y playing tight or not. They shove, limp, whats so ever their hole cards ONLY.
Anyway a nit is a nit and at that stake I think they don't really realize stack depth neither (not everybody, I mean atm even at micros u can find sensed players).
you are decent deep, I would call all the 10bb stacks as played when opened 2,5x pre.
Btw I would advice if you plan to fold to the shove to open smaller something like 2x.

 

[rumsey182]

dear god someone on this forum did the math for once without being told to,.... this is bringing a tear to my eye thank you!

 

[WiZZiM]

I didn't understand what you mean.

i misread your OP so i was posting babble which didn't help you at all. sorry about that.

Your math seems correct, this seems like one of the unusual spots in sng poker where our risk matches our reward in terms of $EV. usually our reward is significantly less than the risk. here it looks like we gain and lose approx 8% equity. in any case, i usually steer clear of these situations, even if it is a slight +ev play to call here (not saying it is +EV because i havent really looked at the numbers)

having said that, i'd be letting it go for the main reason we're up against a tight range, were essentially flipping or worse against it, we're in the CL position, gaining those extra chips looks good on paper when we lose here we are now equal with two other stacks. Basically, i'm happy with the situation now where i'm the CL and can basically play in more smaller pots and chip away at players stacks without taking a huge risk of calling an all in shove.

If he shoves wider here i'm calling, in game i'm most likely folding this always to tight shitnits

Against tight players in big all in spots as the chip leader, i prefer to even decline small +EV gains to maintain my stack.


hope that makes sense and i hope i didn't repeat myself :hello:

 

[Arjonius]

Against tight players in big all in spots as the chip leader, i prefer to even decline small +EV gains to maintain my stack.

This seems to ignore or under-weight one of the benefits of having a big stack, which is that you can more easily play hands where you're slightly +EV because there's no risk of being crippled. On this hand, how bad is the downside anyway?

 

[WiZZiM]

why would we want to get involved when i can just raise his blinds liberally in the next few hands/blind levels and take back the chips that tight player just stole risk free?

against any other player type i'm calling and accepting the risk, but i feel against really tight players there isn't much to be gained in taking on spots like this. that's just my thoughts on it, they could be totally incorrect. but even if this spot is showing a slight +ev gain(doubtful it is, wish i had sng wizard!), i'd be passing here with all things i've mentioned considered.

having said that, the downside isn't that bad arj as you mentioned. we would then have 3 equal chip leaders, but the downside is that both of them are on our right, meaning in the future we will be needing to shove into the bigger stacks in bvb situations. the plusside is that if the tight player doesn't get a set of balls from doubling up, we will also have a player who we can steal from with ease.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

If we're correct about his range, then I'd pass on this spot.

That's a big IF.

I'm with WiZZim on this one.

In a MTT this is one of those "flips" you might just have to take to have a shot at the final table...in a STT if I'm pretty sure I'm flipping at best and I'm not desperate, I'll usually pass.

I'd have to consider recent history and my future image too. If I'd been bullying a lot and raising a lot of hands, I'm more likely to call right here as they're just more likely to be playing back at me light. Also, I want to be careful that I don't encourage more opponents to 3bet shove against me in the future by folding here. So, if I think I'm barely +EV and my image is more LAG I'd call here to show them "Don't mess with me. I'm raising with real hands and I'm not afraid to call your pitiful 3Bet shoves".

But, if I've been playing tight, as you say you were, that leads me to believe he is shoving for value.

it's close either way. I'd say this is one of those rare spots that knowing the "perfect" answer is not necessary as it is not a large and meaningful mistake either way.