This is a discussion on $0.50 NLHE MTT Turbo: 0.5 $ NLHE MTT Turbo: wrong bet size within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; Friends, what do you think about the size of the bet? 3 \ 4 banks or an overbet?
PokerStars Hand #210288382020: Tournament #2831218059, $0.45+$0.05 USD Hold'em
Flop seem fine, but maybe the turn bet could be a bit larger. The river card is really bad, since now you lose to AX, which is a decent chunk of the range, you were still getting value from on the turn. If he had a 3 in his hand, you would probably have heard about it by now, and anything less than a boat is probably giving up now. So I actually dont even like betting this river card. I prefer to just check back and hope to get shown a busted draw or a small pair.
How often do our opponents have bluffs on this particular board and on the river?
When we bet here we are practically ONLY getting called by better. Ax floats our flop bet, makes a pair and then fills up - that's pretty normal and just plainly unfortunate for us. So before we bet this river we need to answer a few questions...
Are we betting for value or betting as a bluff? If we are value betting - what hands that we beat are going to call us? What are we going to do if we get raised?
We need to have a general idea and plan for bets we are making. Otherwise we are just blindly throwing around chips. Even the simplest spots need reasoning, it's just a simpler thought process
Anyhow, as fundiver already eluded to - I would check this river back. We just dont beat Ax anymore which is one of the most likely holdings our villan could have in this spot - when we bet out on the river is highly unlikely we are getting called by worse and when we get raised its almost an instant fold because opponents at these levels just are not bluffing on rivers - much less very polarizing boards like this one. This raise is either As full or nothing and I would probably guess that it's As full 99% of the time.
I agree, that as played we need to fold to the river raise. Sure we are getting like 3,5:1, but its one of those spots, where pot odds does not matter, because Villain basically always has aces full, when he do this.
You are not trying to make him fold AX on the turn, if that is, what you mean. You are trying to get called and get value. This time he hit one of his two outs on the river, which is unfortunate. But at the same time it is also very obvious, that your hand got counterfeited. So when he check to you on the river, you dont need to lose another chip. This is basically, what poker is about. Putting chips in the middle, when you are ahead, and not putting chips in the middle, when you are beat. So if you checked back the river and lost to aces full, this would be a perfect hand.