$0.50 NLHE MTT: Set on the turn, flush on board, response to river donk bet?

[doomasiggy]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 41/24/28

PokerStars - $0.45+$0.05|25/50 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 1,185.00
BB: 1,440.00
UTG: 1,045.00
UTG+1: 1,315.00
MP: 1,625.00
MP+1: 1,425.00
Hero (CO): 2,175.00
BTN: 1,820.00

SB posts SB 25.00, BB posts BB 50.00

Pre Flop: (pot: 75.00) Hero has 5:diamond: 5:heart:

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 125.00, fold, SB calls 100.00, fold

Flop: (300.00, 2 players) 3:spade: J:spade: 8:heart:
SB checks, Hero bets 150.00, SB calls 150.00

Turn: (600.00, 2 players) 5:spade:
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (600.00, 2 players) 9:heart:
SB bets 300.00, Hero ???

 

[BlueNowhere]

Bet turn. No reason to check this back.

 

[Abedin120]

Bet turn, because there is chance for straight, so you should bet on the turn. My opinion.

 

[doomasiggy]

Bet turn. No reason to check this back.

doesn't the flush draw on the board hit his range fairly hard?

 

[BigCountryAA]

Just my opinion but him calling with a flush draw on the board then shutting down once it hit could mean 1 of 2 things and could probably be decided by what type of plays you've seen from him during the game.

In my opinion It looks like a check raise being set up but I may be giving him too much credit and the 5(spades) may have scared him off of the pot. By betting the turn you will get a better feel for where he's at in the hand.

One reason I think it's a check raise set up is that his Aggression factor seems extremely high to me. For such an aggressive player to suddenly play passively in a spot would point me in that direction. I may be looking at it wrong though and I'm fine if someone corrects me.

 

[BlueNowhere]

doesn't the flush draw on the board hit his range fairly hard?

Sure he can have some FDs in his range that got there, you can';t fixate on only parts of his range, even then you still have outs. Also he is almost certianly stacking hands like AsJx, KsJx, QsJx as well as the value we can still get from QJ with no spades type hands that aren't folding and also may stack 'cos he's scared of another spade hitting. Fish also never folding things like 98 with a club. Also weird gutshots that picked up a FD that you don't want to give a free card to anyway. There is so much value you can get from his range and you really don't want to give him a free card.

 

[BlueNowhere]

Just my opinion but him calling with a flush draw on the board then shutting down once it hit could mean 1 of 2 things and could probably be decided by what type of plays you've seen from him during the game.

In my opinion It looks like a check raise being set up but I may be giving him too much credit and the 5(spades) may have scared him off of the pot. By betting the turn you will get a better feel for where he's at in the hand.

One reason I think it's a check raise set up is that his Aggression factor seems extremely high to me. For such an aggressive player to suddenly play passively in a spot would point me in that direction. I may be looking at it wrong though and I'm fine if someone corrects me.

Never bet to see where you are at, it's a stupid reason.

Also AF won't have come close to converging and if it had then he c/r FDs 100%.

 

[BigCountryAA]

Never bet to see where you are at, it's a stupid reason.

Also AF won't have come close to converging and if it had then he c/r FDs 100%.

I don't play hud poker so I probably shouldn't have commented on the aggression factor.

That's just the feeling I get from this hand. You guys obviously know more about it and are less stupid so I'll go with what you say. As I said I'm fine if someone corrects me.

 

[BigCountryAA]

I see where I messed up on this one. I was thinking aggression factor and that is aggression frequency. No wonder I was so amazed by how high it was lol.

 

[cardriverx]

as played ship river.. but yeah, bet turn and try to get stacks in.

 

[duggs]

bet smaller on flop, bet/call turn, shove river. checking back also indicates SDV so you are giving any hand with a spade a free draw, and arent going to induce any bluffs. super easy triple barrel, as played jam and cry when he has a flush or straight and fist pump when he has Jx or 2pair.

 

[duggs]

doesn't the flush draw on the board hit his range fairly hard?

so? we have a ton of equity v flushes and there are an awful lot of combos that we beat that call our turn bet, plus a ton of them are single spade hands and combos which we cant get value from on river. bet/bet/shove imo

 

[duggs]

Just my opinion but him calling with a flush draw on the board then shutting down once it hit could mean 1 of 2 things and could probably be decided by what type of plays you've seen from him during the game.

In my opinion It looks like a check raise being set up but I may be giving him too much credit and the 5(spades) may have scared him off of the pot. By betting the turn you will get a better feel for where he's at in the hand.

One reason I think it's a check raise set up is that his Aggression factor seems extremely high to me. For such an aggressive player to suddenly play passively in a spot would point me in that direction. I may be looking at it wrong though and I'm fine if someone corrects me.

i think you are getting the reasons for betting confused, go hit up the golden archives and there is a good thread on the topic, nothing better obv fold when we bet turn but a ton worse calls, more importantly we can actually get 3 streets of value here, and if we couldnt we are more likely going to get a 2nd street more often on the turn than the river.

 

[OzExorcist]

Bet turn for graet justice and without reads that the villain is a nit, be prepared to get stacks in because you're still way ahead of pair / two pair / pair and draw hands and you've got redraws against made flushes (which are only a small part of villain's range).

As played call river - our line makes it look like we've whiffed with a big ace or something, so villain can easily be betting just to take the pot with no hand, figuring we've missed too and can't call. Or he can easily be betting a bunch of pair / two pair hands that we beat. Even if he has the made flush/straight half the time it's still a profitable call.

 

[duggs]

you not jamming river Oz?

 

[OzExorcist]

I don't see many worse hands calling, and better hands definitely aren't folding, but given he's only got another 600 behind yeah, I guess we can shove river.

 

[youregoodmate]

Bet the turn

 

[sam1chips]

I wouldn't be worried about the straight possibility
The flush could've easily got there. He could easily be check/raising the turn, and then after you check the turn he can bet the river.

He could easily have missed a striaght draw as well (something like T9) and made a pair of nines on the turn, or even Ax with the ace of spades and betting a missed flush draw.

I would call the river. You may be up against the flush, but there are definitely a couple of hands that your set can beat