$0.27 NLHE MTT Turbo: This is a call, right?

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cgcook38

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This would be a tough lay down for me. I struggle in this spot. If I believe my opponent most likely has a flush, I should fold. My reasoning is that the money is nearly 5:1. So my opponent will occasionally bluff here, but how often? If it’s 10%, which is what I usually go with, then 90% of the time they are betting for value. And 10% seems really high here because what other hand would stick around to see that river? Possibly a gut shot? Or someone who called w two randoms praying for the 3rd heart just so they could bluff?

So calling 5:1 when I expect a flush 9 times out of 10 would be wrong for me. I think I end up calling more often than not because I am worried about table image.
 
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

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I actually look at this hand a slightly different way. I don't see a polarized situation here (meaning he either has the flush or air). There's not really a lot of air here that makes sense besides gutters, and he'd have to call twice and then bluff - at a small sizing - which is a lot of unlikely things that need to go right for him to have bluffs here.

That being side, with this small sizing, it's not impossible that we see some worse Ax here trying to block bet the river when the third heart comes in because they are afraid of facing a larger bet.

Now with this EXACT sizing, I do sort of expect we run into flushes more often than not, and I'd certainly rather have a heart in my hand to block some flush possibilities. But that's based mostly on experience. And my experience ALSO says that we see some of that Ax and very occasionally some random stuff here that just doesn't make sense.

I'd be very on the fence in game based on the above, but I'd probably lean very slightly toward calling. Definitely calling if I have the Kh in my hand.
 
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cgcook38

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That being side, with this small sizing, it's not impossible that we see some worse Ax here trying to block bet the river when the third heart comes in because they are afraid of facing a larger bet.

I was thinking AxQh might be thinking they are ahead the whole way and playing it safe, so the river bet makes sense as a preemptive defense. I also think I’m seeing A8, A9, a J8 or a J9 at show down as often as I’m seeing an Ax that I beat.


I’m usually calling here, as I said - so it’s nive to see some thought process that gets me there instead of just berating myself when it’s over ;-) thanks!
 
Luvepoker

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It was a tough spot on the river. The way the hand played until the river he has some sort or Ace or jack or exactly what you fear in the flush draw. When he bets out on the river I do think he is down too two hand types. The ace hoping you don't have the flush and will fold or a value bet with the flush. If i was the Villon here i would have put you most likely on the ace and would have made a slightly larger bet but putting you at 85% to have the ace and looking how the hand played would have represented the flush. I know we are behind here 70% of the time bit with his smaller bet i wold have called here as well. I would not have been happy about calling for sure.
 
akmost

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I wouldn't fold here. Since he called twice I would put him in a worse Ax he is chasing his flush too much,the bad news for you is that he picked up a gutter on the turn.Your sizing on the turn is made for protective purposes but he didn't muck and unfortunately he completed his draw on the river.Well played by you.
 
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