$0.25 NLHE STT: Obviously a flush?

J

johnoman

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PokerStars - 10/20 Ante 3 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 74.85 BB
BTN: 74.35 BB
SB: 73.85 BB
BB: 74.85 BB
UTG: 74.85 BB
UTG+1: 74.85 BB
MP: 152.55 BB
MP+1: 74.85 BB

8 players post ante of 0.15 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has K:club: A:diamond:

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 6.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 4 BB

Flop: (15.7 BB, 2 players) K:spade: 5:club: 7:club:
MP+1 checks, Hero bets 3 BB, MP+1 calls 3 BB

Turn: (21.7 BB, 2 players) 2:spade:
MP+1 checks, Hero bets 7 BB, MP+1 calls 7 BB

River: (35.7 BB, 2 players) A:club:
MP+1 bets 21 BB, Hero calls 21 BB

MP+1 shows J:club: T:club: (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 40%, Flop 34%, Turn 18%)
Hero mucks K:club: A:diamond: (Two Pair, Aces and Kings)
(Pre 60%, Flop 66%, Turn 82%)
MP+1 wins 77.7 BB

I'm terrible at reading a hand in play. Looking back on this hand, was it blatantly obvious this guy has the flush on the river given the large bet sizing after some passive play?
 
T

Transitley

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Hello,

I would say:

You’ve priced him in on the flop by such a tiny bet then on the turn he has slightly insufficient odds to call but assumes if he hits he will get paid off often enough to make it worthwhile.

I’m a developing player and tend to put in half pot flop, then bigger on the turn to charge him if he doesn’t make.

Hard to say on the river whether it is worth calling or not - depends if u have any info on the player. With and ace on the board and you holding top 2 pair I would say you’d be good often enough to call. but by getting the bet sizing better at least you will be positive in the long run either way.

I had a similar one earlier where we were all short stacked, the guy shoved on the turn representing the flush and I had to close my eyes and call and fortunately he had top pair worse kicker, but wasn’t certain.
 
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300HPGOD

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I think you nailed this one in your own analysis. You kept betting way too small post flop which made a flush draw from your opponent an easy call. It sucks then when they got the flush it also gave you a strong hand but it should have not got to that point. Both flop and turn need to be in the half pot are give or take. Opponent would have called the flop and most likely folded the turn and you still would have got the pre flop raise and one street of value. To me it almost looks like you are trying to bet small to keep him in and try to get 3 streets from him. Know that opponents will rarely call a bet with air on the river so you will at most only get two streets anyway. There is a fine line trying to keep junk hands in the pot to get value from them but when there is a flush draw on the board a lot of that goes out the window.
 
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johnoman

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Hello,

I would say:

You’ve priced him in on the flop by such a tiny bet then on the turn he has slightly insufficient odds to call but assumes if he hits he will get paid off often enough to make it worthwhile.

I’m a developing player and tend to put in half pot flop, then bigger on the turn to charge him if he doesn’t make.

Hard to say on the river whether it is worth calling or not - depends if u have any info on the player. With and ace on the board and you holding top 2 pair I would say you’d be good often enough to call. but by getting the bet sizing better at least you will be positive in the long run either way.

I had a similar one earlier where we were all short stacked, the guy shoved on the turn representing the flush and I had to close my eyes and call and fortunately he had top pair worse kicker, but wasn’t certain.


I'm definitely a developing player too - thanks for your input on this one. I agree fully with your comment about bet sizing.
This is somewhere I'm sure I need to work on in order to improve my overall strategy.
 
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johnoman

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I think you nailed this one in your own analysis. You kept betting way too small post flop which made a flush draw from your opponent an easy call. It sucks then when they got the flush it also gave you a strong hand but it should have not got to that point. Both flop and turn need to be in the half pot are give or take. Opponent would have called the flop and most likely folded the turn and you still would have got the pre flop raise and one street of value. To me it almost looks like you are trying to bet small to keep him in and try to get 3 streets from him. Know that opponents will rarely call a bet with air on the river so you will at most only get two streets anyway. There is a fine line trying to keep junk hands in the pot to get value from them but when there is a flush draw on the board a lot of that goes out the window.


Keeping him in the hand is exactly what I was trying to do initially and didn't really consider anything else.
That is a really good point you make about the 2 streets of value when they hold air and not calling a river bet.

Thank you - much appreciated!
 
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abpoker

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I think it was pretty obvious, at least most of the time there. Since you said your plan was to keep him in the hand, once the flush got there and he led out fairly big, I think you had kept your investment in the pot so small that you could have gotten away from it mostly unscathed, and not feeling too bad about it.
 
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fundiver199

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It always sucks to get outdrawn by a straight or flush, but its not something, we can avoid. Instead we want to bet bigger on the flop and turn, so we at least make people pay to draw against us and cut down on their implied odds, when they get there. And no you can not fold to this donk bet on the river. He could be bluffing or even doing this for value with a worse two pair. Your hand is "to strong to fold", and if he happen to have it this time, you just have to pay the man his money.
 
thehangdude

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Pre flop, villain raises and calls your 3bet, so he has something. When flop comes, you should bet 1/3 - 1/2 pot with TPTK. When he calls, you can narrow his range. He either has you beat with AA, 55, or 77, or you have him beat with him holding large pair (JJ,QQ) or worse Kx or flush draw (he would not have raise/called with straight draw cards (46,68). (Maybe he has something like Ax spades and wants to see what happens.)

On the turn, you have to go large (1/2 pot size bet). You don't want to give him odds to call you with the flush draws, but you want him to call with a worse Kx. All other hands will either fold (JJ,QQ) or 3bet (55,77).

With two pair on the river, you almost have to call his donk bet, even knowing it is likely a flush.

Disclaimer: As this is a $0.25 stt, villain might have made these same moves with any two cards, but you work with what is most likely and makes sense.
 
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QA77

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I would bet more like 5bb on the flop and 10-12bb on the turn. Its hard for opponent to have a value hand (only A5, A7, AK) that you beat or tie. He could have some weird bluffs but flush seems like the obvious hand. Since you bet really small, A on the river seems more in your range than his. So bluffing that would be a mistake if he had a straight draw (86) imo.
 
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fundiver199

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Its very easy to get results oriented, when the result of a hand is presented along with the rest of the hand history. But I dont think, this is "obviously" a flush. Sure Villain is REPRESENTING a flush with his donk bet, but that does not mean, he always has it. Ac is on the board, and Kc is in Heros hand, and when these cards are spoken for, Villain is much less likely to have a flush especially in a 3-bet pot, where most players dont call with complete junk.

If he call with decent suited connectors preflop, which is already to wide and a losing play long term, maybe he can have something like QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, which is still only 5 combos of flushes. And then there are all those combos, that he is turning into a bluff or overplaying. So Hero had a 100% mandatory call and just happened to run into the nuts this one time.
 
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