$10 Sit and go: final 3 - marginal hand - Do you call??( speed Tny )

[calibanboy]

I have been watching Caffy, he has been playing well. He played tight early on and has changed gears later on to ensure that he keeps fold equity. ( eg he knows when to go - all in when 4 players playing - he knows you cannot call without something ). He must have played bluffs regularly. I have given a few dwells on his all-in folds knowing this will create an image of a player who will fold marginal hands ( when in fact I had nothing at all ).

I think next level is next hand.

Total number of players : 3
Seat 5: caffy1 (4140)
Seat 6: Calibanboy (3580)
Seat 9: MB_190E (12280)
caffy1 posts small blind (200)
Calibanboy posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Calibanboy [ 2c, Ac ]
MB_190E folds.
caffy1 raises (3940) to 4140
caffy1 is all-In.
Calibanboy.........????


Do you Call? - if so, why?. If no, Why not?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

You fold because A2 is a crap hand for calling off your stack with.

I'd rather fold here and push 32o next hand than call with A2. What is A2 dominating that villain is shoving here?

 

[joeeagles]

Fold and wait, regardless of read on him, there is too much of a chance you only have 3 outs, since he could have a pair or a better A.

 

[alexanderwoo1]

Fold obvously because your opponent could easily have you dominated even if has a pocket pair you only have 1 over card.

 

[Chris_TC]

Easy fold here.

 

[calibanboy]

Ok - well as I mentioned this was a marginal hand in a speed tny. My read on the player was that he would ( and was ) pushing with anything....any King or Queen..for this reason I belived my ace was good. ( and hence I would be 55-60% favourite ).

As it was I was right, and lost - but hey I am not complaining as its definately not a bad beat. I am pleased that my gut was right after watching him play - however realise now that being ahead is not always good enough. Another 5-10 hands may find a position where I am ahead even more.

That said Speed poker is a diferent game - except one thing remains - you want to get your money in when you are ahead.

Table Speed 1329941 (Real Money) -- Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 5: caffy1 (4140)
Seat 6: Calibanboy (3580)
Seat 9: MB_190E (12280)
caffy1 posts small blind (200)
Calibanboy posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Calibanboy [ 2c, Ac ]
MB_190E folds.
caffy1 raises (3940) to 4140
caffy1 is all-In.
Calibanboy calls (3180)
Calibanboy is all-In.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 5h, 7h, 8s ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2d ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 7d ]
Creating Main Pot with $7160 with Calibanboy
** Summary **
Main Pot: 7160
Board: [ 5h 7h 8s 2d 7d ]

caffy1 balance 7720, bet 4140, collected 7720, net +3580 [ 4c 5c ] [ two pairs, Sevens and Fives -- 8s,7h,7d,5c,5h ]
Calibanboy balance 0, lost 3580 [ 2c Ac ] [ two pairs, Sevens and Twos -- Ac,7h,7d,2c,2d ]
MB_190E balance 12280, didn't bet (folded)



I would also like to comment with the - i would prefer to push with 32os in the next hand. I disagree. I agree with the mentality that pushing with fold equity is standard prefered option. Thats said - you need to be aware that the big stack has shown a tendency to call with any A or K also.

Interesting dynamics the lot.

 

[alan1983]

I think his range is huge, and could include litterally any two cards.

idnt mind calling here tbh.

Itd depend how the sng is going for me in general

 

[ChuckTs]

I would also like to comment with the - i would prefer to push with 32os in the next hand. I disagree. I agree with the mentality that pushing with fold equity is standard prefered option. Thats said - you need to be aware that the big stack has shown a tendency to call with any A or K also.

Interesting dynamics the lot.

I'm too lazy to run through numbers, but even if he's calling with that range (which is reasonable with his stack) you should much prefer pushing with trash than calling off your stack here.

You'll have enough fold equity to push out a nice chunk of hands, and even when you do get called (which won't be too often if he's only calling with the above range) you'll usually only be a 60/40 underdog. We're never better than a ~%60 favourite here.

That said Speed poker is a diferent game - except one thing remains - you want to get your money in when you are ahead.

Well, not entirely true. You don't want to call off your stack when you're a marginal favourite, as in your hand above. What turbos are really all about (in the late stages at least) is first in vigourish. That's why Chris is saying he prefers pushing 32o to calling here. I mean hell, villain's push is a shining example why pushing is so much better than calling pushes in these late stages.

Essentially, you win the blinds the majority of the time, and when you don't, you've always got outs to win if you're an underdog.

Article on first in vigourish to come, be it from me or Chris (that's right dorkus, I'm nominating you.)

 

[calibanboy]

OK Chuck, I understand what you are saying.

Thats said - what about the fact that you know your reducing fold equity means that you know you push is likely to be called by anything when the blnds go up, and you are not guaranteed to have better than average cards ( like you do now ).

That said I recognise - that is 3-4 hands away yet in the above example.

 

[ChuckTs]

I still prefer shoving next hand with like 67. Like I said, the majority of the time your opponents will be holding hands that they don't want to call with, and even when they do pick up a hand, you're not going to be all that much of a dog.