why 58% exactly?
Who would know?
Honestly not trying to be abrasive, but this is my point in one sense, that because Negreanu enjoys one of the highest profiles in poker a lot of conclusions are made without foundation.
The idea (if I have this correct) that Negreanu was more committed to his career years ago than he is now is somewhat spurious. The idea that Negreanu calling out cards is an indication of being in the zone questionable. As regards that 'legendary' ability, Negreanu is the most vocal/chatty at the table so he's always got something to say (and of course everyone ignores the countless times his guesses are wrong). Every other player at the table is putting people on ranges as well, they are simply not playing to the cameras.
More importantly, regarding Negreanu's focus or commitment to poker. Has his schedule actually even changed that much from one era to another? I don't think so. Televised appearances and then mostly
wsop with some infrequent appearances on the European Poker Tour. What I might pose is Negreanu was a lot looser and easygoing when younger simply due to age.
However, I believe he is as focused and driven as much as ever, if not more so. In the first place, his identity is wrapped in poker (as with many other players) and I see him needy when it comes to staying relevant. So, he incessantly rags on Helmuth for not studying and poses in recent years he is in 'the lab' and studying because he wants to compete with the wizards - he's Negreanu GTO. Yeah, he obviously has received some coaching but there is nothing to indicate this is anything but sporadic. Further, you can tell when he has been coached as his demeanor is always self contained and he drops all his table chat. That is until regular, feel player Negreanu reemerges as it has done this WSOP and then play becomes a bit of a coin flip yet again.
I think that is at the core of his frustrations. Negreanu wants to remain relevant but not just for being a personality with a career in the rear view mirror. He wants to remain relevant as a player. And that is difficult for anyone but especially those who learned the game in a different era. Negreanu strives to keep his play current, but at times it lets him down because I do not believe (and I think he knows this) that he does not have the capacity to play at that level
consistently.
I remember having a conversation on this a few years ago when he was having repeated meltdowns in
mexico (the Twitter ban phase). A friend and I asked ourselves if Negreanu was a young player now (say 25-30) would he be a high profile success story. In fairness, we believe that people's fundamental character traits inform their poker playing. Some are inclined to GTO and others are not for example. We concluded in todays game he might enjoy some success but would be seen as an erratic and streaky mid level player. I think our thesis has held up since and that would apply to the last two WSOP, the Polk and Helmuth challenges with a degree of success on High Stakes Poker on PokerGo. At best the play and success is patchy.
But consider this, remove the
bankroll and have Negreanu enter contemporary poker as a 25 year old and I am not too confident we would be witnessing a Fedor Holz or Michael Addamo in the making.