Online Poker and Luck

buzzard925

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Online Poker is pure luck. I enjoy the game. But I've come to the realisation that it is solely luck. Consistently winning when so many players at the low end will raise with any two cards removes all applied skills. You cannot pick up tells and you cannot make impressions upon these people. Any play pre-flop is negative equity with 9 or 6 players at a table. You will lose in the long run, it's mathematically a financially bad decision to sit at the table.

Inb4 variance. No, the maths is loaded against you from the start. AA only wins 33 percent of the time at a 9 seater, 45% of the time at a 6 seater. Even being dealt those cards every hand you would lose. And with huge numbers of calling stations that will play every hand, you will inevitably hit "bad" beat after "bad" beat.

I'd be very interested to hear or read non anecdotal evidence to the contrary.
 
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Online Poker is pure luck. I enjoy the game. But I've come to the realisation that it is solely luck. Consistently winning when so many players at the low end will raise with any two cards removes all applied skills. You cannot pick up tells and you cannot make impressions upon these people. Any play pre-flop is negative equity with 9 or 6 players at a table. You will lose in the long run, it's mathematically a financially bad decision to sit at the table.

Inb4 variance. No, the maths is loaded against you from the start. AA only wins 33 percent of the time at a 9 seater, 45% of the time at a 6 seater. Even being dealt those cards every hand you would lose. And with huge numbers of calling stations that will play every hand, you will inevitably hit "bad" beat after "bad" beat.

I'd be very interested to hear or read non anecdotal evidence to the contrary.


I wonder what sort of hands you have, or rather how many hands you played with aces and won only a third. Probably the distribution of 10? I'm sure if you play more than ten thousand hands with aces, then you'll win about 80% of the preflop bets against one opponent
 
ninjareal

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Online Poker is pure luck. I enjoy the game. But I've come to the realisation that it is solely luck. Consistently winning when so many players at the low end will raise with any two cards removes all applied skills. You cannot pick up tells and you cannot make impressions upon these people. Any play pre-flop is negative equity with 9 or 6 players at a table. You will lose in the long run, it's mathematically a financially bad decision to sit at the table.

Inb4 variance. No, the maths is loaded against you from the start. AA only wins 33 percent of the time at a 9 seater, 45% of the time at a 6 seater. Even being dealt those cards every hand you would lose. And with huge numbers of calling stations that will play every hand, you will inevitably hit "bad" beat after "bad" beat.

I'd be very interested to hear or read non anecdotal evidence to the contrary.

Hi, I'm going to have to disagree for sure, your table image and play, tournament or cash (these play differently as cash game players are trying to "extract" money from you and will have great imaginations on how to do so) if it's cash game question i think it should be in that thread as cash games can be very complex & answers/ideas can be helpful to all.
On the tournament section I'd say depends on what levels and stack sizes these "bad beats" are happening, for myself, even though I feel i have a lot more to learn in poker, i can "feel" & see results of my consistency already, being good at poker is trying to minimize the luck factor when it's against you, study opponents image and your own and make plans accordingly, i could be wrong of course , in that case ignore everything ;) , I'm not wrong about consistency though, my last say 10 freerolls have cashed in more than 70% , time will tell, my general advice is look inwards to yourself and your game, it's not just about the cards , everything matters, if it's AA all in preflop and you lose, well that happens, the "only" way i know to help those loses is to "chip up" and hopefully you have more chips than your opponent when you AA all in, I'll give an extreme idea my wife and i aggree on (if in wsop and close to the bubble, as long as I have enough chips and high enough on the leader board, I'm folding AA to any big stack shoves that close to the bubble) extreme poker idea :p , you heard it here
 
ninjareal

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And against "calling stations " , i love playing them, "raising stations" are a bit more challenging but love them too, i think you have to be patient with them, enjoy their image and try to maximise when you "have them" , remember a pair is just a pair to don't put too much value in that, plenty stronger hands than 1 pair, also don't be conned by some "loose" players image, some have a deliberate strategy to "seem" this way, almost as if they don't care etc, i have played this way a few times (mainly cash games) , they know what they're doing, so find ways to beat them , i haven't seen them much in tournaments, maybe other members here have good advice about it ?
 
vov4ik

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I do not agree that poker is completely a game of luck, where it's 60-70 percent of the skill and the rest is luck, but there are tournaments that go fast and do not focus on the game and luck mostly wins in the tournament, but there are poker tournaments that you need use skill and try to win, or in the cache game you need to play and use your knowledge and skill in order to win, but sometimes luck helps in the game!
 
Joe

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Buzzard925 I both agree and disagree with your sentiments. With regards to ATC players removing applied skills I tend to agree, especially when there are many of them in one tournament. You have to hunker down, wait for them to kill each other then pick your moments to chip up through the remaining whales. However as you rise out of freerolls, above micro stakes and beyond I'd imagine these types of players are replaced by ones who are also very aggressive but with a much better idea about how and when to go about it.

I feel and sometimes share your doubts and pain about the online game; last night in the WCOOP $22 NLHE $200k gtd I got it all in pre heads up for a huge pot with AA v AKo only for the flop to come QTJ.. It crippled me and went on to lose with AKc v TT despite the nine-high flop with two clubs.. That kind of stuff does happen but I'm afraid that despite how horrible it is when an awful players calls off all their stack getting terrible odds with a flush draw against your set and hits, these are the players who are your bread & butter and the majority of the time you're raking in a huge pot and they're heading to the exit empty-handed.

You make a convincing argument but, for now at least, I'm keeping the faith... [emoji23]
 
Joe

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OnlineInb4 variance. No, the maths is loaded against you from the start. AA only wins 33 percent of the time at a 9 seater, 45% of the time at a 6 seater. Even being dealt those cards every hand you would lose.


Under what circumstances are you saying AA only wins 33% of the time 9 handed? Lol

I'd like to test your theory about being dealt those cards every hand and still losing, if we contact PS perhaps we can arrange some kind of test?

I like the cut of your gib buzzard but to me your post reads like you wrote it whilst salty after getting aces cracked in brutal fashion against an aquarium-dwelling troglodyte wielding J4o.. [emoji12]
 
milka1605

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In all likelihood, you write about statistics on crowded freerolls. I do not remember that AA won only 1/3 of the hands. Even if you do not see the enemy online, this does not mean that luck here overcomes the skill.
 
wlad20082009

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Luck without a doubt is present . But without calculation and skill game not will ! Even choose a moment to bluff and then you need to count !
 
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long term

luck is a slim factor after many thousands of hands .
 
drejva11

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Luck in poker is kinda important, but the percentages are hardly to be said actually.
 
Newzooozooo

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Hi.
I believe that 70% of poker is a skill, and only 30% is luck.
In order to be a successful player you have to be patient and disciplined.
Good luck.
 
buzzard925

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I like the cut of your gib buzzard but to me your post reads like you wrote it whilst salty after getting aces cracked in brutal fashion against an aquarium-dwelling troglodyte wielding J4o.. [emoji12]


Perhaps ;)

My stats come from a simulation assuming all hands call. Purely based upon the cards dealt at random. Some of you might like this anyhow.

https://www.cs.indiana.edu/~kapadia/nofoldem/index.html
 
VITOS

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There is an opinion that beginners it is such people who are always lucky. To some extent this fact can be carried to various lotteries, amusing games, but not to poker at all. In the global concept the poker can be divided into 2 big groups which in the concept and psychology of a game are very similar with each other. It is real poker and online poker. In the first case, knowledge of mathematics and psychological aspect which sometimes plays a key role in a game are important, in the second case the psychology is not so important. All this is connected with the fact that in online poker you sit not at the real table, and and cannot watch all virtual of changes in behavior of players.
 
ScottieDuncan

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You just have to have patience when playing online. Take your time and play good cards.
 
inflmara

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Playing against fish who raise to wide or call too much is very simple play premium hands and clean them out when you hit, and stop bluffing against calling stations. Re-raise players that raise to wide with good hands to punish them. If you follow this you will make money in the long run.

Good Luck!
 
kraemer

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You look at it the wrong way...

Your AA might just win33% on a 9 seater...
But only if everyone calls. So You Win at least 9 times your initial bet... This way you will win a giant pot one in three times that would easily make up for your losses in the other 2‘cases...

This is a super profitable situation and not a horrible one 😁
 
playinggameswithu

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Cash game with BRM is 100% skill.
MTT are 65% luck 35% your decisions

You can't broadly and accurately say that poker is all luck. If it was how are their so many people making a living from it? Phenomenon of luck is that it evens out in accordance to is variance variable given the odds.
 
finaltable1

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donk, fish... that's for babies.
I suggest a new word for aggressive dumb and lucky player with no record who constantly kicks good players out of the table with terrible hands today and only today... It's a SCHIMPANZE.

Couple of minutes ago this happened to me:
4 Hours of the tournament have passed, 2 players raise + reraise preflop, schimpanze calls, first player also calls. Flop opens Ah 3h 9s. 1st player checks, 2nd player checks, Schimpanze goes all in. 1st player calls, 2nd player calls.
What do we see?
p1 = me AK
p2 = opponent AA
schimpanze = 10c4h

10 - 4 os!! and schimpanze goes all in on a flop Ah 3h 9s

guess what happends next?

2 more hearts on the turn and river and schimpanze has a flush with 4 of hearts, while both of us had no hearts.

It's ok - my AK got beaten by AA, and that ace on flop was a trap for me.
But what did that guy with AA felt when that schimpanze won with 10-4os?

Checked the record of that schimpanze - he's a new player, no previous games according to sharkscope...

Pure luck he says? It's fixed... I see new players wining big money by playing schimpanze style during their 1st or second MTT tournament. Luck vs Statistics? Stats say that it's nearly impossible to dominate with trash hands during 8 hours, playeing like 70-90% of hands dealt...
 
seeyouthru

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the thing i relate most is that i have played 45k hands at .5/10 and .25/50 and i have won like only 40% with QQ+ in full ring
 
wilpinsi

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I can state categorically that it is wrong in its placement, if it were this way, how should I think when in a live tournament, my AA can not survive against 56 suited?
playing online we get more hands, and being this way we will always have the variance as a measure, with a lot of study, you will be able to get well, good luck at the tables
 
Joe

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lsbenn

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donk, fish... that's for babies.
I suggest a new word for aggressive dumb and lucky player with no record who constantly kicks good players out of the table with terrible hands today and only today... It's a SCHIMPANZE.

Couple of minutes ago this happened to me:
4 Hours of the tournament have passed, 2 players raise + reraise preflop, schimpanze calls, first player also calls. Flop opens Ah 3h 9s. 1st player checks, 2nd player checks, Schimpanze goes all in. 1st player calls, 2nd player calls.
What do we see?
p1 = me AK
p2 = opponent AA
schimpanze = 10c4h

10 - 4 os!! and schimpanze goes all in on a flop Ah 3h 9s

guess what happends next?

2 more hearts on the turn and river and schimpanze has a flush with 4 of hearts, while both of us had no hearts.

It's ok - my AK got beaten by AA, and that ace on flop was a trap for me.
But what did that guy with AA felt when that schimpanze won with 10-4os?

Checked the record of that schimpanze - he's a new player, no previous games according to sharkscope...

Pure luck he says? It's fixed... I see new players wining big money by playing schimpanze style during their 1st or second MTT tournament. Luck vs Statistics? Stats say that it's nearly impossible to dominate with trash hands during 8 hours, playeing like 70-90% of hands dealt...

This just happened to me yesterday in a MTT
MP player raises all-in before the flop, I have AA in CO and reraise all-in and the button shoves also.

Player 1 KK
Me AA
Button 83o


Flop 2d, 8c, 3s,
Turn Jh
River 3h

It almost seemed he knew he would win it. Just the variance of poker and gamblers at the table.:rolleyes:
 
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