Mathematics or luck

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jesusali1

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From the beginning of my poker playing I had a lot of mistakes of which I understood that luck is a factor or as it is technically called it is chance that affects the results, but even so there are good players who rely on mathematics to make an assessment of the hands and to be able to take advantage of them.:rolleyes:
 
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alien666dj

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Mathematics is the ability to calculate your chances of winning, and luck is the outcome of mathematical calculations.
 
Alex70793

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Well, of course, math, but luck is also important :D
To constantly get into tournaments in money, you need math, to take the first place in the tournament, you need luck.
To win in cash games, you need mathematics, all auxiliary online poker programs work on mathematical calculations.


If there was no luck in poker, I would win all the tournaments - Phil Helmut (c)
 
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blata8ruga

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I believe NLHE is about 75% skill and 25 % luck. I am sure a lot of players will think I have luck too high but very good hands are beaten quite often by poor starting hands. It is still a shock when it happens to this day, but it is part of the game you have to get used to.
 
Alizona

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Skill only appears in the "long run", which means after you've played thousands or even millions of poker hands.

All poker is played in the "short run", where luck has more influence than skill does. We all understand that you can be the most skillful poker player at the table and get all your chips in the middle with AA but still lose the hand to someone holding 2 random cards... that's the luck factor which governs this game in the short run.

But over the long run, an interesting thing happens... all your bad luck cancels out with all your good luck... the two sides of the luck coin even out after you've played millions of poker hands... and at that point, once the "luck factor" goes to zero... you are only left with the relative skill levels between the players to determine who will be a long-term winner at the game, and who will be a long-term loser.

Just remember, all poker is played in the "short run". The "long run" only shows up when we look at our database of hands played, and when we look at our overall profit or loss calculation. If we have more skill than the average player, we should be a winning player over the long run... but in the short run, we might lose over and over again!! That is the luck factor, and that is what we call "statistical variance from the normal", or just "variance" for short... and that variance will play the largest role in any single poker game or poker session.

Just keep your mind on the big picture. This will help you deal with tilt, deal with the anger of losing in the short term even though you believe you are a good skillful poker player who should be winning!! It's just variance when these bad-luck streaks happen, and if you understand these concepts I have discussed, you should never let it bother you, and you should always have the faith that it will turn around. Always remember that all your bad luck will eventually be balanced by good luck, always believe that. But also realize, sometimes its not just bad luck, sometimes we might be over-estimating our poker ability. Not everyone is a winning poker player with a high skill level!! But if you are, then you should never be bothered by a downswing.
 
veloprofz

veloprofz

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success is determined by the stars and astrology, so be able to use.
 
Luvepoker

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I do rely on math when I play. I also will use it to my advantage. When we use the math to determan the odd we are getting vs the odds of making our hand, we want to have the correct odds overall for a winning success over all. We may lose this time and the next several but long term make the correct mathematical play is the best.


Take something as simple as flipping a coin. Its a 50/50 proposition. If I said If I win you give me $1.00 but if you win i give you $1.10 on average you will profit $0.10 every 2 flips. You may lose 2 in a row, 20 in a row or even more but after 1,000,000 flips you should have a profit about $50.000.00 plus or minis.
 
VITOS

VITOS

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Not math or luck, but skill. By itself, mathematics of course plays a significant role, but you still need to apply this mathematics correctly, and this is a special talent, and not to mention that you can not make all the necessary calculations, even being a mathematical genius. And most importantly, poker is a game with incomplete information, you will never have enough information that you can correctly and accurately make calculations. In the calculation of EV (mathematical expectation), it is necessary to take into account such factors as the probability of the opponent discarding cards and the probability that he is bluffing, these parameters can only be assumed, just like possible cards, you put the opponent a range of hands and not always the estimate of this range will be correct, especially since strong players deliberately dilute their ranges with unexpected draws, and weak ones can simply behave logically. Well, of course, hold'em is also a psychology, and your own psychology is very important, falling into a gambling rush, tilt, making a mistake due to fatigue or inattention, you can ruin the result of several hours of competent play in seconds.

And as for the degree of influence of luck, there is a fairly accurate quote:

"1 day of playing poker is 90% luck and 10% skill, 1 year of playing poker is 90% skill and 10% luck."
 
henriquemaduro

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From the beginning of my poker playing I had a lot of mistakes of which I understood that luck is a factor or as it is technically called it is chance that affects the results, but even so there are good players who rely on mathematics to make an assessment of the hands and to be able to take advantage of them.:rolleyes:



To verify if you are a lucky guy or its just math, get all coin flip hands that u have ever played and see if u win more than 50%. With 1000+ hands, I think your number of win will be very close of 50%. You can do this with other kind of hands and verify the % of it.
 
niphon56

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I think mathematics always useful after flop.
But lots of players prefer all-in preflop in tournaments.
So, what hand and what stacks u have should be more important.
 
takinitSLEAZEE

takinitSLEAZEE

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Math for the long term and luck for the flips."It's what's kept us happy," Evelle Snoats.
 
Sirkiba

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Math, having a good read and a good strategy helps, but poker is also a lot of variance.
 
peaceofcoke

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Both, but if I were to choose I go with luck. Math is important, you can learn it, as for luck, if you were lucky you wouldnt ask this question, would u??
 
aleomar86

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Much of the success, from my opinion you need a little of everything, you have to know how to play, and you have to be lucky in certain instances.
 
srurrr

srurrr

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If you play poker in the long run, math will always win over luck.
 
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purplerain

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You should just use math to make luck mean as little as possible.
 
danoscar

danoscar

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Hello. I believe in mathematics but I only win when I am lucky.
 
henriquemaduro

henriquemaduro

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From the beginning of my poker playing I had a lot of mistakes of which I understood that luck is a factor or as it is technically called it is chance that affects the results, but even so there are good players who rely on mathematics to make an assessment of the hands and to be able to take advantage of them.:rolleyes:


Of course luck is important, if you win your 50% of coin flips when the pot is bigger its great.
 
Sulfuros001

Sulfuros001

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Learning

The most important thing is to learn from the mistakes... For example i used to go all in with pocket Jacks or tens, this has led me to lose almost all my hard working in the tourneys, now i only go all in with pocket aces AK or pocket kings, nothing else.
Think also about all the possible features when you see the flop... Try to see how much they bet, if they play carefully or aggressively. And make a conclusion on the way your opponent play, use their mistakes and improve 😎
 
Sulfuros001

Sulfuros001

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Hello. I believe in mathematics but I only win when I am lucky.
Depends on the hand you have... Don't suicide, don't go all in with pairs or small hands, always play carefully and calcute the options your opponent might have.
 
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deadguy2

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Always run the numbers. Sometimes go with your gut on draws. It takes skill but still a game of chance.
 
blackknives

blackknives

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i believe in all the aspects, math to calculate your chances, nut is nut, but if it's not 100% then there's a chance someone might catch their river. Mathematics only pans out when you play a significant amount of hands to see the numbers more or less. But there's luck, if there's that one player who's always 92% before the river and has lost every showdown 10 of 10 times despite the odds, i would definitely call it bad luck.
 
TerryBLE

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AA is not the favorite hand of most by chance, a math takes us further, but not always.
 
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