Getting desperate

[GSMTH]

Hi guys and girls,
I'm calling out for your reactions to see if my situation is normal or not.

I have been playing online poker for quite some time now.
I'm aspiring to become a professional poker player and have been studying and playing very much in recent months (playing up to 12 hours a day, I have nothing else to do due to Covid 19).
I honestly believe I have come to a point where I should be making more money than I lose, and this shows in the fact that I manage to end up ITM and final table quite frequently, playing only micro stakes Sit&Go's of 360-990 people, satellites and freerolls (my bankroll being extremely limited due to loss of job with Covid 19).
Despite these (hard fought) successes, I'm getting a little desperate because of the abnormal amount (in my opinion) of bad luck and bad beats I keep on having.

More than 80% of the time, I ONLY get bad luck and bad beats (trust me, I've analyzed it).
About 15% of the time, things seem to go "normal", but not especially good (you win a few hands, lose a few hands, but overall barely successful).
Less than 5% of the time I can say that things run "reasonably well" for me, but rarely anything exceptional.
It seems like, whenever I am "released from the bad streak", it is NEVER for more than 2 or 3 hours, after which things turn back to the usual bad luck and bad beats.

I really need to know if this is the same for all serious poker players, or do you have extended periods of time (more than just a few hours) where things run rather positively for you.

Thanks for your responses!

 

[Phoenix Wright]

Sure there are times that everything seems to go lucky for you and other times where everything goes against you - it may even last longer than hours; even pros sometimes go days or months in the bad luck depths of variance.

However, if you are experiencing bad luck like 85% of the time and 15% "normal", then perhaps it is something in the way you are playing (super small chance but still possible you are just unlucky though: but let us address what thing we can control). What game(s), formats and stakes have you been playing? Obviously different ones require different refining. If you can think of specific detailed examples of these constant "bad luck" moments, then I'm sure the cardschat community would be glad to give some insight. Maybe you are too loose? Maybe fishing for draws too much? Maybe bet amounts are giving your opponent really good odds to continue? etc.

Who knows right now? Even the pros are always refining their game, so there is no shame in realizing you've been playing a spot sub-optimally if that is the case. All you can do is give us some examples and I'm sure you'll find those willing to help out here

 

[GSMTH]

@PhoenixWright
thanks for your reaction.
I have been playing micro stakes Sit&Go's, free games, satellites and micro cash games.
Especially in the last few weeks, I have evolved to a rather tight aggressive player.
off course I still have hands that I play sub-optimally, but this is getting rather rare frankly.
I don't think the problem is in the bet sizing, to give you a simple example:
if I flop top pair but there's a flush draw or straight draw ob, I will bet at 35-50%. When called and the draw doesn't come through (no higher card), I will bet 65-75% (if I think my opponent is only after the draw).

Notice I make a clear distinction between bad luck and bad beat.
A few examples of my bad luck:
- I keep on running into opponents who get a set vs my top pair or double pair
- myself, I hardly ever get a set in the last few weeks (1/10 or even less)
- I get a straight, villain gets a flush
- I get a flush, villain gets a straight flush or full house
- I get a full house, on the river villain gets a higher full house
- AK, I raise pre-flop, villain goes all in with garbage but wins (any way
imaginable)
- abnormally high amount of open ended straight draws and flush draws that do not come through
Bad beats:
- I bet flop 65% with top pair AQ+Q, villain raises all in with QT, river brings T
- all in pre flop high pocket pairs for me, low pair for villain, turn or river brings set for villain.
- all in pre-flop AK vs KQ, river brings Q
- JJ all in pre-flop, 2 villains call, both have TT. 1 of them gets a flush on the river
(I know, you can argue whether this is a real bad beat, but seen the very low probability of 4 suited cards hitting the deck, I believe it is)

With only an open ended or flush draw, I will call 1 strong bet on the flop, but give up on the turn if I don't hit, so no fishing.

As I write this, I am playing a cash game on ACR and it feels like since yesterday evening, the bad luck/bad beat streak seems to be largely broken.
Maybe it's because of the refining of my skills I continue to work upon, who will tell.
Let's see what the coming days will bring.

Please continue to voice your thoughts on my story!

 

[GSMTH]

Let me correct that last statement, the sh** has come back!!
3 big hands in a row, lost with ridiculous bad luck + bad beat
built a stack from $0.80 to $2.90, all gone
Gonna cry

 

[GSMTH]

AA vs KK all in pre flop, river K
JJ vs AJ flop JT5 giving me set, villain gets a straight

 

[lattedank]

I don't think you're good enough, no hard feelings. You said that you analyzed your games but are you sure you analyzed them correctly? I see a lot of threads where people blame bad luck etc. when in fact they play bad. You just gotta be honest with yourself because I don't believe that everyone lose games due the bad luck.

 

[GSMTH]

@Lattedank
No hard feelings, but I think you're wrong.
I am brutally honest with myself.
Whenever I lose a big hand, I will analyze the way I played it and what happened exactly, and if there is the slightest chance I played it badly, I'll put the blame on myself instead of bad luck and try to learn from it.

When your opponents push for all in pre flop with low pocket pairs against your higher pair, and they keep on getting sets on the turn or river, that's a bad beat no matter how you turn it.

 

[mollymaggie]

@Lattedank
No hard feelings, but I think you're wrong.
I am brutally honest with myself.
Whenever I lose a big hand, I will analyze the way I played it and what happened exactly, and if there is the slightest chance I played it badly, I'll put the blame on myself instead of bad luck and try to learn from it.

When your opponents push for all in pre flop with low pocket pairs against your higher pair, and they keep on getting sets on the turn or river, that's a bad beat no matter how you turn it.

I'm not going to tell you how to play the game or that you're a bad player. What I'm going to tell you it's poker Like you probably hadn't heard that before. Players are going to suc out on you it's part of playing the game. In low stakes games you're going to see more all in's and crap hands being played because they're usually new to the game. If your bank improves move to a higher stake game see if you notice a change in the players way they play.

 

[lattedank]

@Lattedank
No hard feelings, but I think you're wrong.
I am brutally honest with myself.
Whenever I lose a big hand, I will analyze the way I played it and what happened exactly, and if there is the slightest chance I played it badly, I'll put the blame on myself instead of bad luck and try to learn from it.

When your opponents push for all in pre flop with low pocket pairs against your higher pair, and they keep on getting sets on the turn or river, that's a bad beat no matter how you turn it.

What site do you play on?

 

[GSMTH]

What site do you play on?

I play on poker stars, ACR, GG poker, Ya Poker and Natural8.

 

[GSMTH]

I'm not going to tell you how to play the game or that you're a bad player. What I'm going to tell you it's poker Like you probably hadn't heard that before. Players are going to suc out on you it's part of playing the game. In low stakes games you're going to see more all in's and crap hands being played because they're usually new to the game. If your bank improves move to a higher stake game see if you notice a change in the players way they play.

Thanks for the advise. I do think that will make a difference and will let you know

 

[Patchco89]

I find this happens A LOT on pokerstars. I started playing on GG Poker and I don't see half the amount of bad beats/unlucky runs that I was seeing on PS.

I'm sure it's more the types of players than it is any conspiracy of the site being rigged or anything, but it was bad beat after bad beat after bad beat. Losing premium hands to people playing hands that they should never be calling a raise or 3bet with, but end up sucking out with on the turn or river.

 

[GSMTH]

I find this happens A LOT on PokerStars. I started playing on GG Poker and I don't see half the amount of bad beats/unlucky runs that I was seeing on PS.

I'm sure it's more the types of players than it is any conspiracy of the site being rigged or anything, but it was bad beat after bad beat after bad beat. Losing premium hands to people playing hands that they should never be calling a raise or 3bet with, but end up sucking out with on the turn or river.

indeed, it happens mostly on Poker Stars.
another strange phenomenon I've noticed on that site is that when you get very near or into the money, the big stacks seem to get abnormally lucky. No matter what they call your all in with, they will win in more than 70% of the cases. I have experienced this both in my advantage as disadvantage.

 

[mar_dragan]

I have only one advice for you.
Just keep it on,you just must go foward,you must stay strong and go for your dreams!
Good Luck!

 

[Crash Burn]

We cannot always count on luck in poker, poker is more ability, study, patience and focus. There are times of bad times and we must be patient and know how to hope that everything will be resolved. We cannot be shaken. If you have a bad week or a month you can be sure that this is not just you.

 

[C_mac]

indeed, it happens mostly on Poker Stars.
another strange phenomenon I've noticed on that site is that when you get very near or into the money, the big stacks seem to get abnormally lucky. No matter what they call your all in with, they will win in more than 70% of the cases. I have experienced this both in my advantage as disadvantage.

I only play on poker stars, so nothing to compare to, but the thing I noticed (and I think it's just coincidence) is that when I first make a deposit, I go on big up swings, then followed by crazy down ones. Happens every time.

 

[C_mac]

i No matter what they call your all in with, they will win in more than 70% of the cases. I have experienced this both in my advantage as disadvantage.

I think 70% is an understatement. I can't even remember the last time I went all in with that one good hand your waiting for in late stages, and big stack call you and wins every time. I play 2 or 3 hours a day in multiple tournaments, and can honestly tell you, I can't remember the last time I won one of those boat races.

 

[GSMTH]

I think 70% is an understatement. I can't even remember the last time I went all in with that one good hand your waiting for in late stages, and big stack call you and wins every time. I play 2 or 3 hours a day in multiple tournaments, and can honestly tell you, I can't remember the last time I won one of those boat races.

I agree, 70% was a careful estimate.
They do lose sometimes from smaller stacks, I've seen it happen, but it's rather rare.
The thing I've learnt from it (but it's not easy to do), is when you're small and near (or just into) the money, and you haven't had a good hand for like 20 deal ins or more, fold whenever you get a good looking hand that's less than AQ or JJ (eg. AJ-AT-A9-88-77...) cause you will lose if called.
by contrast, if folded around and you're in late position, go all in with any suited connectors or suited hands containing a J-Q-K or A.
Note: I'm talking specifically about Poker Stars and that specific circumstance discussed here

 

[kevkojak]

I used to feel exactly that way until I started REALLY analysing my play. Poor hand selection and positional play, mainly.
You do say you have carefully analysed your game... with what? Do you any software? I'm suspecting not, given the stakes, but I guarantee they would help, it's useless you saying you're a well rounded leak-free player if you're the only one studying your losses (no offence).

I have to add,the stakes you're playing (1c2c cash and 2c and 10c multi table sngs from what I gather?) dont attract the best players... it's pointless being a good player at penny stakes, as the old saying goes "you can't make sophisticated plays against unsophisticated players". I.e., you're never gonna bluff out rag aces and low pairs - LAG early stages and TAG mid stages usually does ok, but those sng's turn into a chaotic shove fest after the bubble anyway.

I have entered the 10c and 2c when I've been down to shrapnel and trying not to deposit, they are loony games - nobody is there to build a bankroll or play ABC poker. You will only frustrate yourself playing there.

With great respect, if you're any good then try the slightly higher $1 and $1.50 multi table sit n go games and you should find a happier dynamic.

Also (again, with respect) 12 hours a day is probably too long to grind micro stakes poker with this level of frustration. The 2 hour gaps of "normal" are probably you playing better when you're feeling fresh. Or maybe if you're having 10 hours bad luck to 2 hours good luck it really is a fundamental flaw in your game and the 2 hour patches are you getting lucky instead?
Sorry to say that but that was me when I started out. I felt the same sense of "deserving" to win because of hours spent at the virtual felt.

 

[abpoker]

IMO, overwhelmingly, most of us tend to focus on and remember, the bad streaks more than the good ones. And that makes it appear worse to us than it really is. If you're playing good poker, then those numbers are bad for now, but should balance out in the long run. And if you're not playing good poker, than you need to figure out how to tweak you game. If only it was that simple, right? At the end of the day, all you can do is do your best to try to make good decisions. And that should, over time, win out over all the bad luck and bad players.