31 Buy Ins Under All In EV

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mni5005

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I just started playing online poker again recently (haven't played since the shutdown). Just trying to get an idea of how unlucky it is to be 31 buy ins under my all in expected value over 100,000 hands. Seems pretty bad to me but I would like to get some other perspectives. Thanks in advance.
 
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ph_il

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I believe you're talking about cash games and I don't know much about those but I do play MTTs.

I went on a 31 MTT downswing the micro-stakes not too long ago. I don't see it as a big deal because it happens and I've gone on much worse. There were definitely spots I could just waited and gotten into the money but I'd rather not cash in go for a big stack instead. Unfortunately when I was ahead, it didn't hold and I didn't improve when behind. But then I took 2nd for $80+, so it worked out.

Since then, I've went on a 19 MTT downswing before cashing and just broke a 12 MTT downswing.
 
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mni5005

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I believe you're talking about cash games and I don't know much about those but I do play MTTs.

I went on a 31 MTT downswing the micro-stakes not too long ago. I don't see it as a big deal because it happens and I've gone on much worse. There were definitely spots I could just waited and gotten into the money but I'd rather not cash in go for a big stack instead. Unfortunately when I was ahead, it didn't hold and I didn't improve when behind. But then I took 2nd for $80+, so it worked out.

Since then, I've went on a 19 MTT downswing before cashing and just broke a 12 MTT downswing.



Ya I feel you that's how I play tourneys. Bites me in the butt some times but I care more about getting deep than cashing.

I'm actually talking about cash games. I think its a little different for MTT's.
 
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fundiver199

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That is a very large gap. I have never seen anything like that in my graphs. Even so it is still important to remember, that this is only a small part of variance. You ran very cold in all-in pots over those 100k hands, but you might simultaneously have run hot in other areas like coolers, hitting sets, flushes and straights etc. At the end of the day the only number, which really matter, is the balance in your account barring withdrawals or deposits.
 
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mni5005

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That is a very large gap. I have never seen anything like that in my graphs. Even so it is still important to remember, that this is only a small part of variance. You ran very cold in all-in pots over those 100k hands, but you might simultaneously have run hot in other areas like coolers, hitting sets, flushes and straights etc. At the end of the day the only number, which really matter, is the balance in your account barring withdrawals or deposits.


Thanks for the input. I'm still winning overall. Just felt like I was going crazy watching some of the all ins.
 
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Dr_Robert

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Ouch, that sounds painful. Good luck!
 
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Rcg00

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Seems very unlucky. You should be patting yourself on the back for getting the money in good, focusing on how you can continue to do that, and anticipating a fantastic upswing.
 
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Oli3579

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Very unlucky but certainly possible. Keep getting the money in good and it will converge as time goes on!
 
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Vekekeke

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That's just variance my friend. GLGL to running better
 
abwil2

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we all go on HUGE downswings. so when does that all even out? when will we go on 5 or even 10 upswings let alone a 20 or 30 upswing. No different then my KK losing22 of 30 times but have never went on a run where they should hold anywhere close to the odds they should let alone a 28 of times times winning
 
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I don't pay any attention to how lucky or unlucky I feel I've been (what 'should it have been'?). It's a bad headspace for me (ie. like taking pics. of crazy beats... or where you induce villain to make THEEEEE worst possible play/decision possible but then you lose anyways. Instead, I try to pay myself on the back, letting myself know "Good play bud.. good play".

I can catch myself and was on a string of it not long ago, clicking off screenshots while attempting to play low & micro MTT's 'again'... when in actual fact I should keep reminding myself how fortunate we are that there are still so many players unwilling (or unable) to work on their games.

How unlucky am I? Meh.. who cares (well... nobody, lol). And honestly, I'm VERY LUCKY... I can sit at home in my office, with a fan blowing a nice cool breeze in my face, while I look at my 2x 24" Dell Ultrasharp screens, able to load them both up FULL with games/tables at the click of a mouse. And I can do this for as long as I can keep myself motivated. Others are struggling immensely during this pandemic. Me.. not so much. (I just need to get lucky now & start winning LOL.. jk)
 
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Poker Orifice

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we all go on HUGE downswings. so when does that all even out? when will we go on 5 or even 10 upswings let alone a 20 or 30 upswing. No different then my KK losing22 of 30 times but have never went on a run where they should hold anywhere close to the odds they should let alone a 28 of times times winning


If this is the case for you, then someone else must be getting it the opposite way. I mean we can't all be as unlucky as you... & if you're losing disproportionately then some other players must be 'winning' disproportionately as well. I think I'm about even myself.. but am not even sure because I don't bother to check.
 
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pokeherface

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I just started playing online poker again recently (haven't played since the shutdown). Just trying to get an idea of how unlucky it is to be 31 buy ins under my all in expected value over 100,000 hands. Seems pretty bad to me but I would like to get some other perspectives. Thanks in advance.

variance brag ..sorry


ive actually always ran above ev and right not my ev all in adj is actually losing money but im up 800 bb
my old database had 350k hands and ran 0.3 above ev which is massive!
 
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