Variance or unlucky?

B

Bugi

Rock Star
Joined
Sep 8, 2019
Total posts
100
Variance is a mathematical concept. Luck is a gambling concept.

If you think in terms of variance you will learn that certain hands have a certain percentage of succeeding. Over time that probability will come true. In the short term a hand with a 67% probability of success will succeed 67% of the time.

You can play that hand and lose because it will lose 33% of the time.
 
Jay R

Jay R

Enthusiast
Joined
Jul 11, 2017
Total posts
81
Or Computer Program.
There is No such thing as random chance in gambling. The house is going to get you. That goes for online gambling. In a tournament the faster the lower stacks get knocked out the better for the house. The Big Stack— Beware of the Big Stack. Big Stack inevitably has a triple advantage. More chips, more bluffs, more suck outs. More suck outs are from the program.
 
MishkaZL

MishkaZL

Legend
Joined
Dec 1, 2018
Total posts
1,576
Awards
1
UA
I think it's all about the skills and experience of the player. The more skillful and experienced the player, the better his chances and his luck, respectively.
 
Maxmustdie

Maxmustdie

Legend
Joined
Jun 7, 2016
Total posts
1,135
interesting topic
failure is what is outside the variance (mathematical probability)
i think so
 
F

fernandofcp

Visionary
Joined
Feb 25, 2016
Total posts
574
Awards
2
Variance is a logical part of mathematics that consists of a measure of dispersion that checks the distance between arithmetic mean values. Bad luck is a condition of a moment in life without the presence of luck.
 
Fivefor

Fivefor

Visionary
Joined
Jul 29, 2020
Total posts
623
Awards
9
What's the difference?


Variance is the random variation in outcomes given their probability of occurring. Whether said variance is lucky or unlucky is simply a matter of your perspective. The variance that results in an outcome for you that results in a loss you'll likely call "unlucky" if the odds were that you were going to win. Meanwhile, the player on the benefitting side of that outcome which was low probability of him/her winning will call that same variance in outcome "lucky".

Variance is what it is....what you choose to label a particular outcome of that variance is simply a matter of perspective or how it makes you feel. Outcomes that had a probability of <50% of occurring are generally labeled "unlucky" to the loser and "lucky" to the winner.
 
Zapahlohotrona

Zapahlohotrona

Visionary
Joined
May 4, 2021
Total posts
562
A good example of variance in poker: we are playing against a beginner who puts his chips all in every game regardless of the card. We go against him with a return all-in with pocket aces or kings for five games in a row. We lose 5 all in a row and go to a big disadvantage. This completely contradicts the chances and the theory of poker. This moment of the game is usually called variance. The more and longer we play poker, the more equal the odds in terms of mathematical expectation. I've had this kind of bullshit for more than six months. And the end of the edge is not visible. I can only endure.
 
TheNutz4You

TheNutz4You

Legend
Joined
Mar 2, 2017
Total posts
3,389
Awards
4
US
call it what you want and move on. Dwelling over what to call it, won't help any.
 
J

jesusali1

Rock Star
Joined
May 22, 2021
Total posts
225
Luck and variance are different aspects of poker, but even so I would argue that they are closely related, one is mathematical and the other is a matter of luck, no one could imagine a bad hand winning like a 7 and 2 of different suits, but even so they can form a full house or even a straight, that is to say that the variation if it is the most optimal probability of knowing that in the long run you will win but even so this probability will throw a possible wrong result when you least expect it, so I am inclined that in poker there are both and it has a lot of relation.
 
S

stargeezer

Rising Star
Joined
Oct 28, 2020
Total posts
10
Now I understand the difference and how it is applied to poker
 
P

psycodelic1

Rock Star
Joined
Apr 6, 2021
Total posts
212
Awards
5
I think hey are the same thing
 
C

COMIRRR

Legend
Joined
Jan 25, 2019
Total posts
1,334
Awards
1
In poker, bad luck and luck have a small share
 
johnny tigre

johnny tigre

Visionary
Joined
May 4, 2016
Total posts
559
Plain luck is self explanatory but variance for me is like a wheel of good and bad luck.
When the wheel is turned on the good luck, all hand seems to win even how bad your hole cards are. But once the wheel turns the other way around, all hands will lose even if you have AA.
What we need here is to know or to recognize what side of the variance are we in at that moment.
 
terryk

terryk

TheCanuckwithalltheluck
Loyaler
Joined
Dec 14, 2016
Total posts
7,053
Awards
10
Experience is the difference,,, :deal:
 
frnandoh

frnandoh

Legend
Joined
Jul 27, 2016
Total posts
1,696
Awards
2
BR
The only way to be in a healthy downswing is by unluck. When the chart ever points down, there are variance? Yes. There are unlucky? Yes. But when we are losers, the uncommon trend of chart occurs when we are lucky with chart pointing up.
 
Pokerpoet2

Pokerpoet2

Legend
Joined
May 7, 2020
Total posts
1,437
Awards
2
Variance can be observed and measured as it refers to probabilities of certain hands making the best hand on the river, Luck cannot be measured as it is just that, Not skill but just pure luck.
I have had days when I could not lose, and have spent 8 or more hours playing SnGs getting into the money in every game, other days I could not win a Sausage, I do not put it down to Luck or the lack of it, it is all down to the Variance of the game.
As Einstein once said for every action, there is an opposite and equal reaction, same goes for Poker some days you are on top of your game and everything falls into place, other days you do badly because you make more mistakes,
A few weeks ago I played 8 of the possible 9 Free-rolls on pokerstars, I made the money 7 times, The final table in 3 of the games, and won one outright. The following week playing the same games, I barely made the money once.
What changed? The game was the same, I am still the same player, The only thing to change was the Variance of being dealt the right hands, at the right time, and playing them in the right way, It is all part of playing Poker, You cannot expect to win all the time, it just does not happen.
Just ask Phil Helmut! I love watching him blow his top in some games.

When the fun Stops, STOP!
 
F

fundiver199

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Jun 3, 2019
Total posts
10,319
Awards
1
Variance can be expressed mathematically but when related to poker it is in essense just another word for good/bad luck. If we ran above expectations, we got lucky, and if we ran below expectations, we got unlucky.
 
R

ROYALROAD

Visionary
Joined
Jan 1, 2019
Total posts
601
Awards
1
The part of luck is cornered by the part of difference.
That's poker.
 
magister1

magister1

Rock Star
Joined
Jun 17, 2021
Total posts
222
There is a difference but to be honest they sure as heck feel the same lmao.
 
Phoenix Wright

Phoenix Wright

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Feb 18, 2020
Total posts
2,592
Awards
4
Variance is the random variation in outcomes given their probability of occurring. Whether said variance is lucky or unlucky is simply a matter of your perspective. The variance that results in an outcome for you that results in a loss you'll likely call "unlucky" if the odds were that you were going to win. Meanwhile, the player on the benefitting side of that outcome which was low probability of him/her winning will call that same variance in outcome "lucky".

Variance is what it is....what you choose to label a particular outcome of that variance is simply a matter of perspective or how it makes you feel. Outcomes that had a probability of <50% of occurring are generally labeled "unlucky" to the loser and "lucky" to the winner.

+1 Exactly :) One could more accurately define "luck" (if at all) as perhaps how far from expected variance one is currently. In the long-term, it should all even out though.

If we flipped a fair coin 100 times when "Heads" is a good result for us and "Tails" is a bad result for us, then we should expect 50 coin flips to be Heads and 50 coin Flips to be Tails (since the probability assigned to this is 50-50). However, what if we did this 100 times and Heads actually came up 55 times? That is 5 more than our anticipated 50; we might be thought of as "Lucky" in this case. Similarly getting only 45 Heads and 55 Tails might lead us to believe we are unlucky. Increase the sample size though. Flip the coin, 1,000 times or a million times (1,000,000) instead. Then ideally it should match closer to 50% Heads and 50% Tails; this is variance at work and minimized in effects over time.
 
Matt_Burns88

Matt_Burns88

Legend
Joined
Aug 24, 2018
Total posts
1,041
Awards
1
GB
What's the difference?


Short answer; nothing.

Variance is what knowledgeable players expect to happen. Bad luck is what weaker players hope to avoid. The physical manifestation is the same, but the mental states are different. Belief in "bad luck" has destroyed a lot of poker players.

Embrace the variance. Accept it, knowing that you made the profitable play and move on. In the long run you're making money.
 
L

Lucky River

Rock Star
Joined
May 8, 2021
Total posts
154
bad luck is when the opponent is closed on the river 2%, and not luck is when you do not get back the nuts on the river !!!
 
Top