On variance

[Siele]

Hello Everybody!

I'm wondering about a strategy to maximise my wins and i'm asking myself when is variance higher : when multitabling or on zoom or on mutltitabling zoom sessions.

Also for tournaments, what is the maximum number of enrolled players where variance will not be crazy, should it be less than 3000 players?

Thanks for your answers.

 

[karl coakley]

Variance is not by the games, but by the cards. For example, AA vs another pair is about 80/20. While this sounds great, you are still going to lose 1 out of 5 hands. Most other hands like AK vs 67 is only 60/40, which is pretty close to 50-50. This is the reason LAG can be a very successful strategy if you know how to play it.

Zoom doesn't change the math, it just speeds up the game.

A larger field doesn't change the math, it just forces you to play more hands during the course of the tournament and allows you to increase the exposure to the - %.

Personally, I like larger fields. More dead money and more places paid.

Make an effort to get into hands with the best of it (play less speculative hands). Don't overplay your hand. When you get into a hand be more aggressive. This will lower the amount of times you lose to the worst hand, increase your wins, and give you better long term results, but you are not going to escape the variance.

 

[detroitjunkie]

Variance questions pop up here all the time...and most people get it wrong because they dont understand what it means.

It has everything to do with what game is played and number of players at the table.

Less players at the table the lower the variance.

Limit is lower V than pot limit, and pot limit is lower v than no limit.

So in this sense limit heads up is lowest variance.

Also it has to do with what game. Its all about hand vs. hand win % preflop. NLH has the highest average of spread . AA vs. 72os for example , AA is 88% chance of winning when same suits as 72, you wont find much better a win % very often preflop in omaha or before 4th street in 7 card.

If this doesnt make sense...it all means that texas holdem has the highest variance of any game, more than omaha (which a lot of people wrongfully think the opposite) and way more than stud.

Finally in tourneys the variance increases based on number of players, but not for why most people think. Its not about more chances for things to happen...this has nothing ti do with it. Its about how much you can win vs. the buy in. So high variance here is a good thi ng.

There is a lot of math in this but I am dumbing it down to make it easy.

What you do to succeed in high variance games vs. low variance games is a whole different discussion. But no matter how you play the 'level' of variance always remains a constant throught the game.

 

[Drhat63]

Especially live vs. online, ppl tend think online is rigged more because of the crazy amount of hands you can see versus live. A simple explanation could be variance, because we are hitting the 1/5 or 1/11 more often, rather our opponents are... Thoughts on this?

 

[Drhat63]

Variance questions pop up here all the time...and most people get it wrong because they dont understand what it means.

It has everything to do with what game is played and number of players at the table.

This is actually not the case, not even close. while well written, I don't think your understanding of variance is accurate at all.

Variance is the downswings and upswings involved with playing poker.

 

[Vlad symrak]

For a successful game you just need to wait early and then start drawing only with top pair or AK and the floor is done! Next, with aggressive raises learn to throw off any cards and success is guaranteed even if a person has a lot in the tournament !!!

 

[detroitjunkie]

I think this is a prime example:

Going all-in with pocket aces.

Let’s say that you are playing heads up against a total maniac that moves all-in on every hand. Furthermore, by a pure stroke of luck and through the magic of me being able to make examples up, you are dealt pocket aces 5 times in a row. Obviously, you decide to call all-in 5 times before the flop too.

Against any random hand, AA has an 85% chance of winning. Therefore we expect to win roughly 4 out of these 5 all-ins, although we would ideally like to win them all.

However, you actually end up losing all 5 all-ins against your opponent’s 5 random hands. It was amazingly unlikely (0.007% unlikely), but the fact is that it is possible (1 in 1,410,192 possible) and it did happen.

On average you expected to win 4 out of these 5 all-ins, but thanks to variance you ended up winning 0 out of 5. As you can see, variance is the difference between the expected long term results and actual short term results, in this case it is 4 buy-ins worth of variance.

This is part of what i was saying. When u lose the AA hands in nlh vs when you lose say AAK10 plo hands 5 times in a row, the level of variance you are subjected to is higher. So nlh has higher variance than plo.

Variance also has a lot to do with win/loss of BB per hand. In nlh on average you can lose way more BB in a hand with higher % chances of winning to start with. Therefor no limit games have higher variance than pot limit or limit.

 

[detroitjunkie]

The questions that are always asked is how to lower variance. Op asked "when is variance higher" not what it was. The answer is in the game you play. You will be subjected to way less high variance in limit games or less people at the table. (Also by playing small ball but thats a strat thing)

 

[marakhovskii]

I do not think about the difference, just having a nut in my hands. The game under control reduces it, but increases the likelihood of a bluff. The friends of the dispersion are sitting at the final tables

 

[gus201]

Variance ---- Hmmm what is variance ?

Variance has 2 sides to it.
1) Its good side which is positive variance

2) Its bad side which is negative

In poker most if not all of the time players talk mostly about the bad variance they are having.

Variance can not be documented until after the hand is over. Win Or Lose with it
It Is an after thought about the cards and their percentages win / lose.
so when you use math and make a mathematical decision is based on Percentages.
the percentages dont tell you you have won or have lost. With percentages you can win 100 times in a row or lose 100 times a row.
there for the variance in the win lost percentage is the result of past hands.

Math that is used to get the percentages to make better decisions shows you the result of the variance you have received.( 5 wins in a row with AK ECT ...) so trying to make the best out of variance good or bad cant be helped if only using math.

Now lets bring in the people aspect ---- If you have players that make bad decisions and beat you with less inferior hands it counts as bad variance. variance does not know you played bad or wrong. It just tells you after the hand you won or lost.
If you have a inferior hand won with you put a check or dot on graph to the win side.
people can fold or can stay in the hand , people can also hate the table dynamics and chose not to play but top 10 hands because of the over aggressor at the table.
so people come into play way more then the math does. you can help your variance to an extent by knowing how to play the player in the hand with you. They can fold the best hand if they think they are beat. they can play out of their style if the table is too aggressive. theres a lot to this but you can get an idea.

Now lets look at mistakes. there are mistakes players realize that were made and then there are mistakes made we dont realize we make. with the mistakes that we dont realize we make drops into the variance column with us not even knowing it. then you have the regular percentage of variance in there. with all this it all piles up and you look at it like you may be on a big variance down swing when you may be able to cut that in half and it would not look so bad.

Like every one else who plays it all comes down to the money factor and every one doesnt like to lose their money. we want to see the bank roll grow of course.

So My Advice is to get with a good friend that plays or find some one that would be able to watch you and help let you know if you are by chance making any mistakes you may not be aware of .

the more you play the player the better youll be against the bad variance and the good variance should follow.

A good player uses both math and his reads on players to make the best decision he can at that time.\

so much for a quick Post

have a good day at the tables

 

[BlackJesus]

variance is the same on every table, the time invested/hands per hour differs.

The second part of your question is poorly defined so its hard to tell what you mean. If you mean your chances to get to the final table, because of variance, then of course 3000 players is a killer. But on the other hand, the rewards from getting there are that much higher.

Choose your strategy depending on your bankroll.